Hilary comes to Baja! (Pacific Hurricane)

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mvweebles

mvweebles

Guru
Joined
Mar 21, 2019
Messages
7,577
Location
United States
Vessel Name
Weebles
Vessel Make
1970 Willard 36 Trawler
Huricane Hilary is forecast to come over Ensenada Sunday night, perhaps as a Cat 1 blow.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/234623.shtml?cone#contents

For no good reason, I am fairly optimistic this will just be a standard bad storm, similar to what I weathered in San Francisco Bay dozens of times. Why am I optimistic? Partially because the Pacific is so cool. Partly because I don't have any choice - whatever is gonna happen is gonna happen. Prepare for the worst....Cruiseport Marina is well protected by breakwaters.

Right now, the ECMWF and GFS models are wildly divergent (see PredictWind screenshot for Sunday night, 9:44PM PT). Hopefully will get a clearer view tomorrow. I'm rooting for the Europeans on this one!

ETIQUITE QUESTION: I am in a slip where there is no finger between Weebles and an old tired Islander 36 on the other side. I've seen the owner aboard once. My thinking is to take a warp from my 'free-side' stern to his stern (doubled back to Weebles so I can control of course). What say the bigger TF Brain? Good idea? Cool to do so?

Peter
Hilary - Euro vs GFS.jpg
 
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I would not tie to his boat but can you get to some cleats on the dock in front or behind the other boat? Also talk to the marina manager and get their opinion on what you can do. When we bought our last boat it was on the Potomac River and a hurricane was projected to come close so for almost 4 days all the workers were moving and tying boats down in preparation. Then it changed course and went out to sea. So they had to undo everything. Ask what the marina storage contract says about securing boats and what you are allowed to do. Maybe in Mexico things are much more lenient, I don’t know.
 
Unless you tie up the other boat to certain standards, I wouldn't tie to him.

A diagram of docks, pilings, cleats and how that other boat is tied may help.
 
My concern in typing to another boat is that if that boat gets damaged guess who they will blame. But I have no idea how blame gets apportioned in Mexico.
 
Thanks to you both. I'll chat with the marina manager in the morning. I just snapped the two attached pictures. The sailboat is secured, but lines seem slightly undersized. I have a ton of spare dockines so will keep an eye out once the storm comes through (SOP for liveaboard).

Second picture is their dink on the foredeck. It actually looks like a nice dink - fiberglass, probably pretty heavy. But still, wonder how much wind it would take to launch it. I'll definitely talk to the manager tomorrow.

Liability in Mexico is mostly handled immediately between the two parties. No courts involved. I watched a guy on a motorcycle get clipped by a car. He was okay but his motorcycle was dinged up pretty badly. Guy in the car kept peeling off 500-peso notes until the motorcyclist said he was done. Lawsuits here are extremely unpredictable, expensive, and can take years. If the cops show up to an auto accident, standard practice is to round-up everyone unless they have insurance. Behooves all involved to settle between them.

Thanks.

Peter

20230818_155746.jpg20230818_155438.jpg
 
If it's a good blow I predict the dink will hit the drink.
 
I would also look around the general area for potential flying objects and ask the marina to secure them so they don’t hit your newly renovated baby.
 
In Mexico, people work a half day on Saturday (45-hr work week) so I am hopeful some prep tomorrow. But severe weather is quite rare here so, unlike Florida, I wonder if people are used to securing their boats. I have seen zero prep anywhere on the docks, and I'd guess that 40%-50% of the boats are not prepared for 3-hrs of >40-kts. Many sailboats with passively secured roller furlers. There's an adorable sedan trawler down the fairway from me with a simple Bimini and canvas cover over the aft deck that would take no more than 15 mins to secure the canvas. Perhaps it will be done tomorrow.

Peter
20230818_165656.jpg
 
Well hopefully if anything goes flying it won’t fly your way.
 
Peter, you were thinking of attaching a line onto a boat that is (in your opinion) not well secured to the dock. What were you thinking that would acomplish.
 
Comodave said:
Hold their boat to the dock with his boat…
Click to expand...

More or less - keep both boats off the fingers. I would think idea would be a somewhat loose line with a weight (kellet) in the middle.

Peter
 
Good luck! Secured our boat today... took the bimini and solar down. Lots of old derelict wrecks in the ACH mooring field; I wonder if we won't lose a few of them. Hopefully none of the crap on their decks hits us. Could get really messy if we get a lot of wind; folks here are certainly not used to it - 20-25kts is a big storm for us.
 
I once weathered a hurricane in my boat where there was no finger separating
me from the boat next to me. It didn't take very long for my absent neighbor's
dock lines to abrade and for the neighbor's boat to start crashing into my boat.
It took me a few minutes to summon the courage to exit my dry boat and go out
to re-secure his boat. The eye was around 30-45 miles away at its closest point.

It would be wise to have extra lines and anti-chafe gear at the ready, as you likely will!
 
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My opinion is to use your extra dock lines to help secure your slipmate.
 
ksanders said:
My opinion is to use your extra dock lines to help secure your slipmate.
Click to expand...
That's the plan if no one shows up prior to the storm hitting. There are quite a few fulltime cruisers here so I suspect there will be several hands helping. That said, many of them are at the end of their career and not exactly mobile.

While I've had slips with no middle finger, never during a storm. Was pinging the collective group on thoughts. Many thanks to all.

Peter
 
Right now it is a Cat4 storm. Supposed to be a Cat1 or less by the time it gets to California. But lots of rain and winds in the 50 to 70 MPH gusts. Hang on…
 
Wind prediction is down from last night 60+gusts, this seem more about rain now. Still heading down in the morning and will probably pull the canvas down, add chafe protection and a few more lines. First tropical storm warning for San Diego I can remember in my lifetime. Hang on down there in Ensenada guys, it's going to be a bit stronger down there.
 
Any exposed canvas will shred. That dinghy will fly. Double up your neighbors line to the dock, not to your boat. Good luck!
 
Hilary sashes east.....

The predicted storm track has shifted east, a favorable development, at least for me.

I chatted with Guillermo, yard manager (owner of La Costa Boatworks) yesterday. He said that in 35-years of living in Ensenada, storms always seem to bend inland once passing Cedros Island, towards San Quintin then towards Mexicali. He's originally from Mazatlan and said storms are much different there - much more serious. But in Ensenada, there seems to be a hand of God.

Touch wood, the 5AM ET hurricane track bears this out - the track has shifted significantly eastward placing Ensenada well on the 'clean' side of Hilary. And speed has increased - Hilary is a speedster of a hurricane.

While risk for me has decreased, the storm itself will still cause upheaval for those on Land. Tijuana is a large city of 2m people, many of whom live in small shacks that barely cling to the steep hillsides. I am scheduled to drive to San Diego Tuesday morning and will have a front row seat.

Regardless, today will be hurricane prep day. I cannot thank those who chimed-in enough. Having a sounding board really helps.

Peter
5AM ET Aug 19 Hilary Track.png
 
Had a similar situation with an absent owner.
Ran lines from stern and midship to face dock. Thought was if he broke lose he’d hit the lines not me. Also ran line from most outboard finger cleat to most lateral main dock cleat. That line was not attached to my boat. Lastly took engine off my RIB and wedged the dinghy between our two boats to act as one big fender.
Didn’t get hit with hurricane force winds but rather a full day of storm force. Was sufficient to partially pull out one of the marina’s cleats and chafe two of my lines so they were throw outs. They rubbed on his boat when lines got stretched. Had put my fenders out vertically and one jumped up so got a small bit of gelcoat rub. Fortunately had lots of fenders and it was mild enough to buff out.
We left the boat as marina required that and glad we did. What are you going to do? We disconnected shore power. What are you going to do?
 
Hippocampus said:
We left the boat as marina required that and glad we did. What are you going to do? We disconnected shore power. What are you going to do?
Click to expand...

Last night, I was mentally preparing for 40-kt winds for about 3-4 hours. Today, Hilary's forecast track has moved east putting me on the clean side of the storm. Similar thing happened last year with our house in Madeira Beach FL (near St Pete) and Hurricane Ian - we were squarely in the descruction zone until Ian veered eastward and took out Ft Myers. In Madeira Beach, you wouldn't know there was a hurricane - barely rained.

But my plan for 40-kts was to simply ride out the storm. 40-kts of wind is memorable, but not that bad ----- as long as there isn't much wave action to tear apart docks. The docks here are concrete floating docks and the marina protected by an outer breakwater that protects Ensenada harbor; and an inner breakwater that forms the quays for the cruise ships and also protects the marina. And then there is the cold Pacific water that will not feed a hurricane the way GoM or the Atlantic does for Florida and the Gulf Coast.

That said, I'm no hero and have no qualms about evacuating. In Florida, we have evacuated three times with false alarms and absolutely zero misgivings. If we ever second-guessed whether we should evacuate, 10-seconds of viewing pictures of Mexico Beach FL after Hurricane Michael removes any doubt. I saw a church where the bricks were literally pulled off the wall. It's a head-scratcher of an event I have no interest in investigating up close.

Unless Hilary shifts westward, I am in good shape. Of course, will monitor the NHC updates every 3-hours. However, for folks in Southern California that will see a LOT of rain, different story - desert areas around Palm Springs have no capacity to absorb water. Goes without saying to stay out of arroyos and such. As mentioned in a previous post, Tijuana is at serious risk. Many poor people live in the arroyos - the local government is working to get them into temporary shelters.

For now, all good in Ensenada. Cautiously optimistic........for now.

Peter
 
Comodave said:
Right now it is a Cat4 storm. Supposed to be a Cat1 or less by the time it gets to California. But lots of rain and winds in the 50 to 70 MPH gusts. Hang on…
Click to expand...

All of the current news reports continue to say Cat4 storm, but in looking at windy, I can't find anything above 39 knots and most readings are 33 knots or below, currently or forecast. That is barely a tropical storm. What am I doing wrong? Or is Windy that far off?

When I see reports like Tropical Storm warning issued for California "for the first time in State history" (or "for the first time ever"), I can't help but think that the reports are prone to exaggeration. In that case, they neglect to report that tropical storm warnings have only been given since the mid-80's, and California has had both hurricanes and tropical storms, so the warning is not nearly as unprecedented as the reports suggest. Is any of that at play with the Category 4 hurricane warnings?
 
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For us here in La Paz we are seeing right now 15 knot winds and a bit of rain.

I would not want to be in Turtle Bay or up in the Sea of Cortez right now.
 
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