San Diego to Catalina departure timing vs swell (3/23 vs 3/24) advice request

[socalrider]

Hey all,

Taking a crew out to Catalina from SD Bay for a couple weeks of spring break fun. It'll be my wife, our 3 kids, and a friend of theirs (ages 7-12) plus 2 dogs. Tolerance for discomfort is low!

I'm looking at the wind and swell forecasts for next week; I'm pretty inexperienced at this & could use some advice. We were planning on loading up Monday night and leaving at first light Tuesday. Wind forecasts look fine. I'm a bit concerned about the swell forecasted for Tuesday though.

ECMWF 14km (which seems to better match current conditions) shows 6.8' @9s on the nose midway to our destination at 10am on Tuesday. This seems pretty uncomfortable.

At 10am on Wednesday the same forecast shows 4.3' @10.2s.

For reference, current conditions from the Mission Bay buoy are 4.5' @14s versus the ECMWF forecast of 5.4' @11.2s.

Would you...
1. Ignore the swell forecasts - they're not reliable
2. Head out as planned on Tuesday & retreat to Mission Bay if it sucks
3. Shift a day & plan to depart on Wednesday first light instead
4. "other" - please elaborate!

Thanks!

 

[caltexflanc]

Wednesday sounds way better. Not knowing your crew's tolerances or your boat, that is. You might ask around your marina too.

 

[guy with a boat]

As of right now, Wednesday does look a bit better. Although it makes it tough to plan, the forecast may (likely will) change between now and then. If you can wait until tomorrow night to make the call, check the updated forecasts then. If you have to call it today, Wednesday would be better. The difference isn’t huge but everyone likes smoother conditions.
Windy is a great resource btw. I find it easy to use and among the most accurate. The graphics help you to see how the conditions vary within a larger geographic area, as opposed to print forecasts that show one description for the whole area. Both wind and swell are often worse offshore, expecially here in the SoCal bight.

 

[Fletcher500]

Attached is the Bouy Weather forecasts for 20 NM off Mission Bay. They are getting their data from the usual sources, but also using some other forecasting tools (same people who created Surfline for Surfing years ago). I find it to be as accurate as anything else out there, and I often cross check after the fact.

Winds are fine, but the swell on 8 to 9 seconds could be a hobby horse, and I often find the last 10 miles or so off the east end of Cat after you are clear of the lee side of SC Island can be worse.

Perhaps run half way up the coast on Tues, pull in, then do the second half on Wed, and you avoid the higher winds on Thurs.

Tough call if you have your kids and their friends who may be susceptible to sea sickness.

 

[socalrider]

Thanks all - very helpful. Windy seems to match the Predict Wind forecasts I'd used for my original post, showing moderation of the swell and lengthening of the period for Wednesday, but Buoy Weather disagrees, showing about the same both days.

I do have the luxury of being able to delay the call, so I'll check tomorrow & see how things look.

 

[KnotYet]

Whichever day you choose, leave as early as you can see well enough to steer.
Morning conditions will almost always be calmer than afternoon/evening.

 

[lwarden]

I'd go for it based on what I see. It will all be part of the adventure. Duck into Mission Bay and anchor up in Mariners cove if it's an early no-go and kids are sick or head up the coast and see if you can make it to Oceanside if things are iffy. Then wait it out a day and you will have a better angle to Catalina in flatter water.
For Catalina we usually leave late at night, about 11pm if you have competent night watch and you are good with getting around the kelp on PL in the dark. Then you are pulling into Avalon for breakfast and miss any chance of wind. With your crew and this being your first time that might not be ideal though. Even Mission Bay can be fun though so what is there to lose by going for it and you knock a couple hours off the trip.

Oh, and have a great trip! We love Catalina.

 

[AmericanVagrant]

I agree that earlier is better. When sailing, the morning conditions are always the most disappointing.

You could also split the trip with a stopover in Newport Beach, they have a free anchorage now.

 

[socalrider]

Yeah, I've done the trip twice before & we love it there. We got the trawler after a brutal 13hr 6kt bash in our Beneteau First 405 sailboat (followed by a great 2 weeks) two summers ago. Last summer in our CHB was a massively more comfortable trip up in similar typical summer conditions (3' @13s). I don't have enough hours in the vessel to know how she'd be in shorter period swells, but 6' @9s seems really tough.

I do see the buoy data is diverging (in a good way) from the last Buoy Weather forecast. I'll keep looking. I've done the Mission Bay stopover & it is fun & always an option. Lots of people recommend splitting the trip up, but it does add a ton of miles to the journey so I've never done it to date.

Leaving early for sure. First time in our sailboat 2yrs ago we left at midnight because I was too amped up to sleep and figured we might as well get underway while the kids slept. We stupidly had all 3 of them in the v-berth. Was at the helm at 2am sipping coffee, at one with the universe @ loving my life when the children started to appear... while it was comfy in the stern cockpit, the v-berth was (obviously now that I have some experience) a roller coaster ride. The three kids had been having a ball bouncing all over the place and giggling their head off until the nausea started to set in.... it was a really long trip after that!

 

[RedRascal]

The other thing to keep in mind is the forecast is an avg. swell height within a range. If the forecast is 6.8' that means you may see some 8-10 footers every so often. Maybe every 10-15 minutes. The bigger swells may scare folks so it's good to let everyone know once and awhile they may see some bigger ones coming through. You'll know your not in Disney Land with a 10 footer at 9 seconds.

 

[MYTraveler]

I'm looking at the wind and swell forecasts for next week; I'm pretty inexperienced at this & could use some advice. We were planning on loading up Monday night and leaving at first light Tuesday. Wind forecasts look fine. I'm a bit concerned about the swell forecasted for Tuesday though.

ECMWF 14km (which seems to better match current conditions) shows 6.8' @9s on the nose midway to our destination at 10am on Tuesday.

6.8' at 9 seconds, on the nose, is beyond my comfort level (for my boat, YMMV) but not a safety concern (I wouldn't go long distance without keeping an eye on weather and being able to duck into a safe harbor if things got worse than expected). So, if I "need" to get to Catalina, or anywhere else in a day trip, I wouldn't let that forecast stop me. My cut off for comfort is 6' at 12 seconds, if I have to head into it.

Yesterday, my wife and I went out to dump the holding tanks. The actual conditions were 4.9' at 12 to 13 seconds, on the nose. We pitched pretty good when heading into it, but the stabilizers did their job very well in the trough, and on the way back, in following seas, there was very little pitch and roll rarely exceeded +/- 2 degrees. Although my wife and I are both prone to sea sickness, we were only headed into the swell for about 45 minutes and we were both fine (since even a short trip is more than enough time for my wife to get seasick, she did take Dramamine an hour before departure). The dog (a 4 month old Yorkie) did barf, but only while headed into it. Once we turned, she stopped barfing but was still lethargic.

But, you may be able to avoid most of the forecast conditions by choosing a route that largely keeps you in the shadow of SCI. And, forecasts are not all that reliable -- a forecast 6.8 could easily be 5', and 9 seconds could easily be 13 seconds. The other consideration is your crew's tolerance to seasickness. At the very least, give them Dramamine the night before and morning of departure.

Personally, the prospect of losing a day a Catalina is enough to not let those forecast conditions stop me, but I would plan to turn around if they turned out to be worse than expected. At the very least, check updates and compare the original forecast against actual for the 24 hours before your departure.

 

[socalrider]

6.8' at 9 seconds, on the nose, is beyond my comfort level (for my boat, YMMV) but not a safety concern (I wouldn't go long distance without keeping an eye on weather and being able to duck into a safe harbor if things got worse than expected).

Thanks - very helpful. You've got about 50% more LWL to help with pitch plus the stabilizers for roll, so I suspect your comfort window is a good bit wider than ours. Looking at the latest forecast updates, Tuesday's outlook has gotten worse, with 7'@8sec and 15-21kts on the nose. Too much for our crew.

Wednesday looks better; the window appears to favor a ~4am departure, which would give us 4-5' @10s and under 10kts of wind. Catalina eddy is setting up so might even have a light wind on our tail for part of the time.

 

[Fletcher500]

Hi SCR,

In general, I have always found the swell to be a foot or two larger off Pt. Loma and the Mission Beach area than areas just north like La Jolla and Oside on the same day. Figured it had to do with the deeper offshore water canyons meeting shallow water causing the swells to stack up a bit along the southern area, and some Island shadowing as you head north which decrease it a tad.

Sounds like you have access to Bouyweather?

I am seeing more like 6 to 8 ft on 8 seconds off Pt Loma and MB (early in the morning, then decreasing) and then smaller numbers you noted more north on Wed - probably for the reasons I described above.

 

[lwarden]

Based on Predict wind I would still be going for it Tuesday morning early and playing it by ear. They are showing more like 4' @6s which isn't horrible, but I don't know how well your boat handles that shorter period. Heading more northerly towards O-side would get you behind the lee of Catalina sooner and give you an out if it's uncomfortable.

 

[AlanT]

Just a note to thank all contributors for this string. We are sitting in a rental cottage at Ocean Beach San Diego, having driven down from WA checking out many of the potential ports of call for a future Southbound voyage from Seattle to San Diego. Thanks for your input! ~A

 

[Delfini]

Windy app.
Wednesday. Leave early. Done deal.

 

[socalrider]

Windy app.
Wednesday. Leave early. Done deal.

Yup. All the forecasts seem to support that strategy now. SCA out through Tues evening, so that's also a good hint! 9'@8sec Tues am - no thank you.

Wednesday looks pretty nice though thanks to a mild Santa Ana cancelling out the onshore flow: 5'@10s and very calm until the NW winds kick up in the late afternoon. We'll load up the boat tomorrow, spend the night & drop the lines around 4am.

Thanks all for the help sorting through this. What a wonderful resource this is! I'll let y'all know how it goes.

 

[Fletcher500]

SCR,

Hope your trip went well today and the kids are good.

How did conditions match up to the BouyWeather predictions (as follows):

->6 am: outside Pt. Loma/Miss Bay: 5-7 ft. on 8 secs, Winds < 5Kn

->12 noon: In the main channel off DP: 3-4 ft on 14 secs (SSW), Winds 10Kn.

 

[KnotYet]

Yup. All the forecasts seem to support that strategy now. SCA out through Tues evening, so that's also a good hint! 9'@8sec Tues am - no thank you.

Wednesday looks pretty nice though thanks to a mild Santa Ana cancelling out the onshore flow: 5'@10s and very calm until the NW winds kick up in the late afternoon. We'll load up the boat tomorrow, spend the night & drop the lines around 4am.

Thanks all for the help sorting through this. What a wonderful resource this is! I'll let y'all know how it goes.

Avalon's not so good during Santa Ana winds. Cat Harbor no problem!

 

[socalrider]

SCR,

Hope your trip went well today and the kids are good.

How did conditions match up to the BouyWeather predictions (as follows):

->6 am: outside Pt. Loma/Miss Bay: 5-7 ft. on 8 secs, Winds < 5Kn

->12 noon: In the main channel off DP: 3-4 ft on 14 secs (SSW), Winds 10Kn.

Trip was great! Anchored at White’s now. Was quite windy this afternoon, happy to have my upgraded ground tackle.

The numbers above were pretty accurate; maybe a big lighter swell and wind once past Mission Bay. It was quite flat actually, and winds didn’t start kicking up until 2. We left ay 5am, got here at 3.

Thanks again all!

 

[Fletcher500]

Excellent, have fun!

 

[KnotYet]

Trip was great! Anchored at White’s now. Was quite windy this afternoon, happy to have my upgraded ground tackle.

The numbers above were pretty accurate; maybe a big lighter swell and wind once past Mission Bay. It was quite flat actually, and winds didn’t start kicking up until 2. We left ay 5am, got here at 3.

Thanks again all!

Glad to hear it. I've anchored there before, as have a number of folks here.

 

[ancora]

Reminds me of a bad decision I made coming back from the island to San Diego. We harbor hopped on the way back, stopping at yacht clubs on the way for a free guest slip. Left Dana Point and the weather and wind were perfect. Since we had a guest slip at Oceanside Y.C., against the Sicilian's advice, we pulled in for the night and dinner at the Jolly Roger. Of course, the next day, the 25-30 knot wind came from the south and we had a long wet trip back to San Diego. She still sticks it to me over that one.

 

[MYTraveler]

Trip was great! Anchored at White’s now. Was quite windy this afternoon, happy to have my upgraded ground tackle.

Interesting that you chose White Cove, which I prefer over Avalon but my family prefers Avalon because it is much smoother and White is a long dinghy ride away from Avalon. Did you choose White because Avalon was full (or perhaps closed, due to the Santa Anas), or do you prefer it to Avalon?

 

[Lucky Chucky]

Fletcher500 is spot on.

There's a monster swell coming up from New Zealand and Surfline is tracking it.

~Lucky Chucky

 

[socalrider]

Reminds me of a bad decision I made coming back from the island to San Diego. We harbor hopped on the way back, stopping at yacht clubs on the way for a free guest slip. Left Dana Point and the weather and wind were perfect. Since we had a guest slip at Oceanside Y.C., against the Sicilian's advice, we pulled in for the night and dinner at the Jolly Roger. Of course, the next day, the 25-30 knot wind came from the south and we had a long wet trip back to San Diego. She still sticks it to me over that one.

Yeah once with our First 405 sailboat I managed to make an adventure out of a simple overnight to Mission Bay - we beat into 25kts on the nose *both ways*. Very difficult to pull that off in San Diego but I managed!

Interesting that you chose White Cove, which I prefer over Avalon but my family prefers Avalon because it is much smoother and White is a long dinghy ride away from Avalon. Did you choose White because Avalon was full (or perhaps closed, due to the Santa Anas), or do you prefer it to Avalon?

No, there's nobody here & the Santa Ana was quite mild, gone by the evening. We're going to do a few days here on the east side of the island & then to Avalon Saturday where we'll refresh, resupply, do the Avalon thing & swap out one friend for another. Then we'll head up the coast again, probably the back side if weather permits - hopefully two harbors will be comfortable, if not then Cat harbor. I like Avalon for a night or two, but prefer the tranquility here. The mooring fields are empty except for a single vessel about 3/4 mile away.

It was amazingly flat here last night - like a mill pond almost. I was looking forward to trying out my new flop stopper but no need so far!

 

[La Sirena]

I went from Newport Beach to Catalina in my then Nordic Tug 32 more times than I can count. Swells were never a problem, but wind, that's another story. Never, never leave in the afternoon for a late arrival in Catalina. I did it once, and years later forgot how bad it was and did it again. Water was flying over the boat. Miserable ride.

The front side of Two Harbors is much nicer than Cat Harbor IMO. The water in Cat Harbor is cloudy and just not inviting. I would go to Two Harbors 10 times for each time I went to Avalon. Lots of good hiking in Two Harbors. It's like a place where time forgot, and it's hard to believe that it's so close to LA.

Have fun!

 

[phillippeterson]

What's in Catalina that's so fun?

 

[socalrider]

What's in Catalina that's so fun?

First couple days...

 

[lwarden]

Bet the water is a bit chilly. Looks like everyone is having a great time!