Blue water

Powerboats also don't have the wind force on a sailing rig to contribute to a knockdown, so it's much more likely to come from waves alone. In other words, getting knocked down to 90+ degrees in a powerboat is significantly harder than for sail.

The worst powerboat knockdown I've read an account of was the Nordhavn 52 Dirona. They saw something like 65 degrees after taking a breaking wave during a bar crossing. Made a big mess, but the boat survived it fine. I wouldn't expect many of the boats on this site (mine included) to have handled that so well, but it took some pretty atrocious conditions to get there.

In general, achieving a high AVS value is easier on a powerboat with a high volume deckhouse. The biggest issues are keeping the windows intact and avoiding downflooding when rolled far enough to test the boat's ultimate stability. The big deckhouse becoming immersed at 90+ degrees will add a significant amount of righting force.

I'll bite even though I've never crossed an ocean and no plans on doing so (though I'd happily crew on a solid boat with good captain). I have however spent a LOT of time outside of SAR range, though much of that is because places like Central America really don't have much in the way of SAR resources so you're on your own even if you're relatively close to shore.

So what is Bluewater? To me it's passagemaking well beyond reliable weather window without bail-out options other than turning around. Meaning that the forecast takes a radical turn for the worse, you'll have to deal with it as best you can. What are the chances of a 'radical turn for the worse?' Depends on how far out - I've often used the 72-hour number to indicate when you're past reliable forecasts, but does that mean the forecast will radically change? That you're open to a Force 12 at the 73rd hour? Of course not - only a fool would ignore seasonal weather patterns such as Hurricanes. But it does mean the boat's scantlings and windows/ports will withstand a lot of green water; and the equipment spaces are reliably ventilated to prevent water ingress, including inverters. Does it have to have an AVS of 90+ degrees? I don't know - I can tell you that really bad things happen at 25-degrees or 30-degrees so after that, all bets are off. Some boats are more tender than others - much as I love the Defever 44, no question that it's a tender boat. I'd cruise the hell out of one if I owned it, but I'd be damn careful with weather. I do that anyway so not a big deal. Would I cross the Atlantic in one? I might. The Pacific? No - you're sort of committed to following the sunset. But I don't know - I've never had the urge so haven't thought about it much.

And then you get to seamanship skills. Ability to read weather well enough in advance to divert course; maybe slow-down or speed-up. Prep the boat for heavy weather - make sure the dinghy is well secured, for example.

No question that powerboats are vulnerable to water ingress - inverters are particularly vulnerable and many boats (even Nordhavns). Dirty secret is many boats aredead without their inverters (gulp!). If the boat is dead in the water, it will turn beam-to the sea and greatly increase chance of down-flooding even in Force 4 conditions. I carry a modest sea anchor to buy time if my engine fails. Also enables me to set the boat in a favorable angle to the seas to reduce rolling.

Peter

Thanks R and P. Good stuff. At present realistically it’s unlikely you will see sustained cyclonic storms but like you will see some bad weather if your transit is long enough. In 35y have been in one storm(BF10) but several times gale force (BF 8-9) conditions. Each time from poor weather predictions. That with both us annd employing a commercial weather router. Only in the storm were we in serious conditions for over a day. For time spent well less than 5% of the time on the water. I’ve carried a JSD knowing active intervention on my part or crew is limited at best. Still have never used the JSD in anger. Our only knockdown was in block island sound. A truly coastal setting and not on passage.
Would think even with many bluewater power designs the idea of passive storm techniques is underutilized. Dashew comes closest understanding going with the wind and wave train loading on the boat is less. He also understands staying near perpendicular to the wave train lessens the risk of knockdown or inversion. But his boats are long, lean, big and power dependent in order to fully utilize his teachings. Rather would like to see designs that could survive repetitive pooping. That would allow use of a JSD. Even loss of propulsion or electricity would not impact on survival. You are nearly always safer on/in a boat than in a raft. Closest are the DDs where a JSD would probably work. Never was a fan of sea anchors. My current boat has one. It’s stored under the master berth. There’s no chance my wife and I could retrieve it and little chance we could deploy it in a significant seaway. So we cruise accordingly now. A JSD isn’t an option as the rear windows and door would blow out and the ED flood.
For power doing passage I think some simple things would greatly improve survivability. Saloon glass made smaller, non sliding and ideally non opening. Here spec’d sufficiently to survive green water and even a knockdown. Use of dorades or equivalent for natural ventilation and screw in plates internally to effect complete closure. Companionways that could survive a pooping. Dry stack exhaust and engine air intake high and midline with downflooding protection. Positive locking of all lockers, floorboards on the sole and no loose gear such as lamps etc.
With these changes you could passively handle weather. Even with loss of propulsion with a JSD you’d do fine. I can use a JSD. Tie the bridle to the back end of the boat. Drop the weight and chain in the water. Done.
I’ve heard only a percent or two of sail or power ever sees blue water. But over the years other than line squalls have seen more weather near coastal than ocean. Would like to see B rated boats actually be able to handle sustained force 8. Would like to see coastal cruisers not get into serious trouble if they catch a pop up Tstorm with no propulsion.

I'm not sure windows need to be made non-opening and small. Windows you don't need to see out of while underway can be designed with provisions for beefy storm panels that cover them (and cover the drains for sliding window tracks if relevant). Design the frame and storm cover so they seal and the assembly should be watertight and strong with the cover on. So you basically turn them into non-opening solid sections (or with a small transparent area in the covers) when heavy weather is a possibility, but get the benefits of large opening windows the rest of the time.

The points about what to do if propulsion is lost are major. That's one of the biggest weak points of many powerboats. Conditions that are perfectly manageable with engines running may not be without them. I do wonder if you could deploy a JSD off the bow in place of a sea anchor. If the deployment and retrieval is more manageable than a big sea anchor and it's enough to hold the bow to weather, then that might be a viable tactic.

With sail the issue of strong wind gusts near certain areas of land can be an issue that makes a wind induced knockdown a risk in some coastal areas given the right weather. However, that's a much smaller concern with power. I've been hit with 40-ish kts just forward of the beam from an unexpected very local blast of wind in a squall that popped up suddenly. Wind was coming offshore with not much over a mile of fetch, but in the 5 minutes it lasted the sea state built to 1.5 - 2 feet. Nothing major in terms of sea state, and for us the wind was relatively uneventful and no big deal from a boat handling perspective, it would have been a different story for a sailboat given no warning, as the wind prior to that was in the high single digits and there had been no unstable weather previously that day (and the worst thing in the forecast was a chance of rain showers), so any sailboat would likely have had full sail up. A wind station less than 2 miles away along the shoreline reported that the wind there never exceeded 20 kts at that location, yet the wind we saw was strong enough to break the glare shield on my masthead light (which had seen 40 kts without issue multiple times and has since been replaced with a revised stronger version) and build close to 2 foot seas with a mile of fetch in only a few minutes.

I took a different approach than a Jordan Series Drogue or Sea Anchor. Might be hubris, but i believe my risk of wild weather is really low. But.....as Rslifkin points out, there is a non-zero risk of engine failure. I will need two things: slow my drift towards a lee shore; and keep the boat from going beam-to seas. In short - I need to buy time to figure out next steps. I decided to go with a Burke Seabrake that I'll use a spare anchor rode if needed. It's modest size and not very expensive.


Probably get torn apart in heavy weather. But my hope is my risk of being dead in the water is <0.01%. Risk of being dead in the water with storm conditions is 0.1% of that. I'm running out of zeros......

Peter

Sea anchors and drogues are really 2 different things. One holds geographic position while the other holds/assists orientation.

While a sea anchor probably should always be deployed from the bow, most any drogue could be deployed from either end.

That's a good point. Given adequate sea room, something smaller just to keep the bow into the waves might be better than an actual sea anchor. It'll let the boat move backwards more, meaning your speed of wave encounter will be lower.

Some years ago, I helped a neighbor prep his Island Packet 44 sailboat for the Annapolis to Bermuda race.

Now the Island Packet is a pretty capable boat- built strong with an AVS of 140 degrees. It has a moderate sail area to displacement ratio and a ballast to displacement ratio of 40%.

So it has good bones, but I was amazed at the upgrades and modifications required to meet the A to B race rules. Things like a redundant electrical system, redundant communications, the list goes on and on.

And A to B might not make everyone’s definition of a blue water passage- about 850 SM.

If the criteria for a blue water capable boat is meeting those race rules, then no boat qualifies straight from the builder. All will require some mods.

Here are the 2024 rules. They would be a good start for anyone planning a serious blue water passage.


David

In the context of this thread blue water is beyond land, off the continental shelf where most men & boats do not venture.

Bluewater can be any water too rough for man or boat. This can and does include inland waters if/when wind and waves are beyond normally expected.

I have been in flat inland calm water and 15 minutes later a squall lands causing surfing waves.
I have been 300 miles off the coast in storm force winds.
Heck I have also been to Juan de puca & Georgia Straight.

If a boat goes backwards the rudder and steering gear is very vulnerable hence using a JDF off the bow doesn’t seem wise.

Hippocampus said:

If a boat goes backwards the rudder and steering gear is very vulnerable hence using a JDF off the bow doesn’t seem wise.

Click to expand...

I would expect that to be less of a concern with a typical powerboat with smaller rudders and often hydraulic steering that won't let the rudder flop around than with a sailboat (large rudder and often cable steering). But yes, moving backwards too fast would be potentially dangerous. Realistically, I wonder how fast you'd actually be moving backward with a JSD off the bow and no engines. I'd expect if it's not more than a couple of knots then unless you hit something there wouldn't be much mechanical risk.

I didn't fully appreciate the risk of fouling running gear until going offshore. I'd done a lot of Inside Passage cruising before going offshore and never fouled running gear. It's been a pretty regular hassle while passagemaking. I've picked up kelp that caused noise/vibration issues and slowed us down several times on the West Coast of USA and Canada. This issue is much worse at night, and we never had a reason to risk overnight running on the Inside Passage.

In Mexico, we got a stabilizer fin tangled up in a longline (9+ nm long!). I dove to cut the fin free; thankfully it was calm. In Japan we wrapped a whole mess of abandoned line and net in the prop and rudder; it cost us 3 knots of speed, but we were able to get to a calm harbor before diving to clear it. Halfway between California and Hawaii we snagged a net that cost us 1.5 knots, but didn't cause any vibration. Conditions were pretty calm and it was daylight, so we stopped and dove to cut the net free with little drama. Four days west of Hawaii, we ran over a net at 12:30 am that killed the engine. We had to wait until morning to dive and clear it. Conditions were typical tradewinds and we rolled like crazy all night long--the sat compass recorded rolls through a 90 degree arc, 45 degrees each way. Not much fun and very difficult to get anything done. Times like this are when you appreciate all the pre-passage prep work. Anything that can get loose will. Fixing and securing things once you're dead in the water is vastly more difficult than when you're at the dock.

We've been able to deal with each entanglement. They've happened in warm water and relatively benign conditions. I particularly worry about fouling running gear when it's too rough to dive, we're running just ahead of weather, in very cold water temps, or if we're on a lee shore. In some of those instances I'd probably apply some theoretical knowledge and try out the sea anchor.

I believe that for a well-designed, well-maintained, well-crewed passagemaker, fouled running gear is the biggest risk to propulsion. I don't know of a good defense. One of the nets destroyed our Spurs line cutter. The Shaft Shark has always cut enough to keep the engine turning, but left enough that we still needed to intervene. Neither protects stabilizer fins or rudders. FLIR and sonar are useless against nets. An able diver, hookah, and bread knife have been the only cure.

Things like downflooding, window/door integrity, and stability become infinitely more important if you're dead in the water.

When in a "survival situation", use of gear atypically can be a life saver....sorta goes hand in hand with "survival".

Doing "anything" in those conditions requires thought of the possible consequences and how they factor into if they may cause more harm than good.

I don't believe sea anchors "guarantee" the the boat can not be shoved rearward under the right combo of boat, gear and conditions.


"There are a few other issues to address when using a parachute sea anchor system. Lashing the tiller with a semi-flexible lashing such as a heavy shock cord, for example, reduces the chances of rudder damage when sever waves force the boat astern. "

IMO, Blue Water is subjective. For me, it's the point where independent twins or an independent wing engine are required. Obviously, hull strength and other things come into play. But for me, it's a realistic requirement if someone can't rescue me within a day. Not sure what the realistic expectation for a USCG helicopter is (miles off shore). It's knowing I can be rescued in a day, not days, or I need redundancy. This will obviously vary by nation. In a third world country, this might be how far offshore your dinghy will reach land.

Ted

Elling makes CE Category A (Ocean) rated power boats in the 35 to 65 foot range (E3, E4, and E6). Looking at them, you can see a lot of the issues discussed in this thread put to practice.

Agree to disagree. We did deploy the JSD to train and be secure we knew how it worked. Did it under power and bare pole. Conditions were fresh breeze, 1m very occasional 1 1/2 -2m. But swells of long period. Forward movement varied widely. Little or none except going down a wave over 5’. Even than accelerating slowly. Would expect more movement and quicker with serious conditions but still a knot or two suddenly going backwards repeatedly can’t be good. Suspect very few powerboat set ups could survive going backwards in a bad seaway for a prolonged time.
Spec’d the thing after talking with and telling the Englishman (blocking his name) particulars of the boat. Specing for a JSD should start before build. We needed to move our two stern quarter cleats further aft. Also needed to glass in much larger backing plates. Although we had very large powered primary winches needed to train and add additional gear to be able to retrieve the drogue. Think it would be nearly impossible to retrieve a drogue until weather had past through. Believes a sea anchor on a recreational boat is a single use device. Cut it loose you better hope you won’t need it again. Don’t cut it loose you’re staying put.
There is Elling dealer in Hingham MA which is near us. Unfortunately there were no used ones on the market and I didn’t want to spend 18-24 months waiting. Yes a more thoughtful vessel than many.
I have practiced using warps in case of steering failure and found it surprisingly effective in mild to moderate conditions. No experience in bad weather. I have used warps in weather to prevent broaching when running with benefit but not in extreme conditions. Greatly appreciate Retriever sharing his experience and heard of several twins entangling both props simultaneously. Only knew of this as one vessel was hauled and I talked with the yard worker. I continue to believe for sail or power some way to remain at a reasonable speed and properly aligned to the sea train totally passively should be part of the tool bag. At present believe a JSD is the best available choice. In weather use of a JSD, warps or anything off the stern requires the aft end of the boat can take a boarding sea. See very few powerboats where that’s the case.
Can’t stress how important it is that technique be totally passive. With 45degree oscillations best place to be is on the sole and wedged in someplace or behind a leeclothe or bundle board wedged and cushioned. Miserable conditions I suspect Retriever endured.

Thanks PS-Donald. Seems that article support JSD use.

psneeld said:

Sea anchors and drogues are really 2 different things. One holds geographic position while the other holds/assists orientation.

While a sea anchor probably should always be deployed from the bow, most any drogue could be deployed from either end.

Click to expand...

A sea anchor can also be deployed off a bridal, which is the optimal way of stabilizing a boat in high wind/wave situations, effectively locking the boat into a hove-to position. Good description of the effectiveness of this technique even in a hurricane, and how to rig it, is in Larry Pardy's book "Seraphim's Oriental Adventure".

Hippocampus said:

I have practiced using warps in case of steering failure and found it surprisingly effective in mild to moderate conditions. No experience in bad weather. I have used warps in weather to prevent broaching when running with benefit but not in extreme conditions. Greatly appreciate Retriever sharing his experience and heard of several twins entangling both props simultaneously.

Click to expand...

When I was prepping for a rough passage years ago I bought a 100 yards of big nylon to trail as a warp, or use as a hurricane rode. It was either 1" or 1.25".

So when I found myself running in 25-30 ft seas I considered deploying it to keep steerage straight. The problem was that the seas were breaking/foaming and my cockpit was constantly broached. All compartments were watertight so that was not an issue.

The foaming, boiling water at the stern, with seas obviously overtaking the vessel, made me completely eliminate the idea of dragging a warp (I was considering using it in a looped manner). The risk of tangling the props was too high. In retrospect I would prefer to use a drogue on a rode that is appropriately sized, but NOT oversized. Something that would likely break if it wrapped around a prop. Drogues are not too expensive - it might be worth carrying 2 for that reason.

Have just tied knots and used nylon with a weight at the end. But in a sailboat with prop behind skedge so entanglement not an issue. Used two so could vary length and steer some. Hasn’t used a loop so have no experience with that. On high aspect fin with balanced spade rudder best I could do was fore reach when attempting to hove to. Never found hoving to helpful except when wanting a pause in mild conditions. Works great for that. Of interest in the reports of outcomes in survival weather bare poles did the worse, hoving to second worse, the sea anchors but JSD the best. At least in the sailboat crowd seems JSD dominates.
Find it’s an active technique for me. Need to fiddle around even to keep the boat fore reaching. Lin and Larry were on a Lyle Hess full keeled boat and more skilled than me. I rather drop the weight of the JSD in and go lay on the sole surrounded by soft stuff.

A new 49’ Elling E4 can be delivered to any slip on the East Coast within 6 months upon placing the order! It may take 8 months for an E6. This is what I heard at the Newport Boat Show couple weeks ago. They will be showcasing a brand new Elling E4, gray hull, at the Baltimore Trawlerfest this week and at the Annapolis Powerboat Show next week.

For me, there are two definitions of blue water capable boats. The first one is when you end up in a strong gale that was not predicted. Most well maintained power boats should manage with the following key areas of attention: 1) operational engine air intake shutters with alternative air source; 2) well sealed, water tight cockpit; 3) hatches/sliding doors that do not leak excessively; 4) two fully independent engines - separate controls, separate batteries, separable fuel tanks/filters; 5) water tight compartments in case of catastrophic flooding, i.e. for example if a rudder breaks off, the lazarette or area around the rudder post should be sealed off and not lead to loss of buoyancy. The probability of surviving a roll-over with the above modifications is probably above 50% but the problem is that if you have one, you would probably have a few more and then it becomes tricky.

The second definition is boats designed to handle gale and above conditions on a regular basis. Then the standards are much higher and probably require an aluminum hull that can withstand repeated abuse. Good examples would be the Coastguard/RNLI boats. I do not think it makes sense to upgrade any production motorboat to such a standard as the cost would be prohibitive and the use cases non-existent.

Amazing what goes flying with a knockdown. Unless lockers have positive latches they open. Same with floor boards. Same with anything not firmly secured. Same with fluid and tankage via venting. Beyond needing overbuilt engine supports even other heavy bits may move. Investors, gensets, watermakers etc. the forces of impact and submersion are communicated to the other side of the house and boat. Windows pop out. Even the junction between the house and deck may fail on the non submersed side.
People make fun of life in a cage but the much lower houses of sail are less at risk but in walks around yards have seen this failure in them. Believe this failure would be more likely in typical recreational trawlers. The difference between a blue water boat and coastal even up a “B” occurs at all aspects of design and construction. It’s continues in all aspects of infill and loading.
Now image a knockdown (the above hypothetical) and multiple it several times with an inversion. Have this occur in a vessel where air intake and exhaust must be kept dry or water intrusion must be kept away from engines.
Have watched the Elling video. But consider it’s done with an empty boat and not kept inverted for a significant amount of time. Still that elling doesnt come even close to the survivability of a decent bluewater sailboat. would feel much safer on my prior Outbound or a nordie. looking at this first goal is the best AVS you can achieve with the highest instability when inverted. add in everything you can do to minimize dowmflooding.
i was much more impressed by the modified small pilot boats of the navy and CG that were designed from scratch to survive a roll over and retain some level of functionality.
Post #23 has excellent points and outlines major features.Gets the high points. Gets very difficult, expensive and somewhat limiting once you get down to the details. You want smaller open spaces. Less glass. Less ventilation that can’t be automatically or quickly closed. Fewer hull and house piercing. Many of the blue water design features are inconvenient at rest.

Was caught in a storm (bf10) once in my life. Boat was trashed.
No potable water (salt water came in through vent). No electricity ( water over batteries poles). No engine , navigation, autopilot, cooking and even with lockers closed soda cans exploded, packaging of food stuffs failed, Tupperware lids came off and interior of the boat coated with slime and debris. We had one(yup just one) knockdown and no inversion.
Post #23 is so excellent when he(she) closes with the statement about risk;benefit for the vast majority of us doesn’t justify the extreme expense and limitations it presents to quality of life. Still there’s no way I’d want to be on any production boat in bf 10 or above. I would want to be on a “A” boat that was kept at “A” standards for any Bluewater work however.

Hippocampus said:

Was caught in a storm (bf10) once in my life. Boat was trashed.
No potable water (salt water came in through vent). No electricity ( water over batteries poles). No engine , navigation, autopilot, cooking and even with lockers closed soda cans exploded, packaging of food stuffs failed, Tupperware lids came off and interior of the boat coated with slime and debris. We had one(yup just one) knockdown and no inversion.
Post #23 is so excellent when he(she) closes with the statement about risk;benefit for the vast majority of us doesn’t justify the extreme expense and limitations it presents to quality of life. Still there’s no way I’d want to be on any production boat in bf 10 or above. I would want to be on a “A” boat that was kept at “A” standards for any Bluewater work however.

Click to expand...

What are the chances of hitting an unforecast/unavoidable Force 10 (or even 7-8) in the Mid-Atlantic in May? Pilot charts suggest it's pretty much 0%. Not saying there can't be violent squalls, but it takes time and fetch to build to Force 7+ conditions.


Folks could save themselves a million dollars if they'd have patience and knowledge to pick a season and go with a boat they could afford versus hand-wringing for years saving for a Nordhavn. While great boats, there's an argument they are 'nice-to-have' vs 'must-have' for a lot of bluewater trekking.

Peter

mvweebles said:

What are the chances of hitting an unforecast/unavoidable Force 10 (or even 7-8) in the Mid-Atlantic in May? Pilot charts suggest it's pretty much 0%. Not saying there can't be violent squalls, but it takes time and fetch to build to Force 7+ conditions.

https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/download?key=16693989/SFH00000/106may.pdf&type=view

Folks could save themselves a million dollars if they'd have patience and knowledge to pick a season and go with a boat they could afford versus hand-wringing for years saving for a Nordhavn. While great boats, there's an argument they are 'nice-to-have' vs 'must-have' for a lot of bluewater trekking.

Peter

Click to expand...

When I met Bruce Kessler at Trawlerfest and toured Spirit of Zopilote, he discussed survival at sea with the audiences and confessed during his circumnavigation, he never really encountered severe weather. He discussed how to avoid it by sailing the seasons and modern weather forecasting reports and how to get them at sea. Since then, but even a bit before, I have carefully studied many accounts of those that managed the same and those that didn't (helped with my 2 careers though much of it was simply offshore coastal US...but still the same concept).

Peter you are on the right track. Impossible to get caught in bad weather?...... no, but there is a lot in a powerboat you can do to avoid or at least lessen it's effect in todays world.

Heck...people here could do a lot to learn what is really a safe anchorage when just cruising the ICW.

I am practicing right now looking for a safer RV park in Alabama with Helene headed my way...

As said only saw one storm in 35+ years and that was over 20years ago. It was definitely an anomaly as noaa had several buoys not reporting and didn’t inform the public. Such an event would not occur now. Other than that event have seen repetitive line squalls but no gales or storms that we couldn’t divert and only see brief exposure near the edge.
In general feel much safer in blue water off any continental shelf. Beyond the absence of traffic and the risks of shallow water weather is actually less of an issue. With a recoding barometer and your eyes only limited by the curvature of the earth you are rarely surprised. Unlike coastal you are very unlikely to see pop up T storms. With depths in miles waves must be huge before they break. Add in radar and there are few surprises.
I routinely did my own analysis but this was always supplemented by looking at the models and a discussion with a professional weather router. Again it’s very unlikely you will see sustained survival weather if you don’t rigidly hold to schedules.
Still there is some exposure to short term events. Particularly microbursts and rogue waves. There’s been an evolution in understanding rogues suggesting they are more frequent than previously thought But still are rare. Think these elements and lines squalls or Tstorms are reasons to pick a suitable vessels as the risk of seeing sustained bf 8 or above is very low.
A new problem has arisen. With MMCC the season for cyclonic storms has become less defined to some extent. But if you take that into account and pick your departures appropriately risk is decreased.
In short as usual agree with Peter. You’re likely safer in blue water than in coastal and even out to 200nm. But it takes the right boat, prep, understanding weather and for most of us the security of a weather router.
My experience has been congruent to this. The storm I saw was in the gulf of Maine. The only other known down was in Block island sound.both very coastal settings. That’s two serious events in coastal settings and none In blue water.

As said only saw one storm in 35+ years and that was over 20years ago. It was definitely an anomaly as noaa had several buoys not reporting and didn’t inform the public. Such an event would not occur now. Other than that event have seen repetitive line squalls but no gales or storms that we couldn’t divert and only see brief exposure near the edge.
In general feel much safer in blue water off any continental shelf. Beyond the absence of traffic and the risks of shallow water weather is actually less of an issue. With a recoding barometer and your eyes only limited by the curvature of the earth you are rarely surprised. Unlike coastal you are very unlikely to see pop up T storms. With depths in miles waves must be huge before they break. Add in radar and there are few surprises.
I routinely did my own analysis but this was always supplemented by looking at the models and a discussion with a professional weather router. Again it’s very unlikely you will see sustained survival weather if you don’t rigidly hold to schedules.
Still there is some exposure to short term events. Particularly microbursts and rogue waves. There’s been an evolution in understanding rogues suggesting they are more frequent than previously thought But still are rare. Think these elements and lines squalls r Tstorms are reasons to pick a suitable vessels as the risk of seeing sustained bf 8 or above is very low.
A new problem has arisen. With MMCC the season for cyclonic storms has become less defined to some extent. But if you take that into account and pick your departures appropriately risk is decreased.
Still the two truly scary events I’ve seen were in coastal settings and none in blue water. Storm in gulf of Maine and knockdown in Block island sound. Agree as usual with peter. On many levels in a proper designed and maintained Bluewater boat, adequate education about weather, using available weather prediction inputs, no rigid schedules You’re likely safer off any continental shelf than coastal/near shore.

I have been beat to senselessness in 210-399 foot USCG cutters offshore from the Antarctic to the Arctic (probably not fun in any cruiser we would normally have), never inshore on smaller vessels as one can always plan to duck in. Worked for me for the last 50 years..... and gradually got better and better as forecasting did.

Plus quicker rescue inshore if needed (particularly MEDEVAC)...... in some parts of the world.