Another “I” storm for SWFL

[High Wire]

Last year was Ian. Now Idalia.

 

[Old Sea Dog]

Well hopefully it doesn't spin up too big. House can handle a Cat 1 if I am not there. Anything higher and start losing electric. Ian and Irma were a bit of a mess. Ran generator for 2 weeks.

 

[Blissboat]

A glance at SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico should be all it takes to understand why the NWS is watching Idalia with alarm:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/sst_loop/14_atl.png

 

[Larry M]

Crap and I know it’s a few days out but …

 

[O C Diver]

It's been an unusually dry summer for us in Fort Myers, but this wasn't how I wanted precipitation.

Ted

 

[Mambo42]

Heard over a month ago that water temps were unusually high, which is very bad news for hurricane development. 28 degrees Celsius is required for a build up, water temps are at 30 degrees, so this can get ugly real fast.
Hope all of you in the danger area will be safe, don't take your chances with this one, a boat or a house can be replaced, but not your life.

 

[High Wire]

Damn, Wednesday 1am changed to M.

 

[fryedaze]

The Army Corp has Lake Okeechobee at about 15.5 feet. Hurricane season is just starting. If levels get to 16.5 feet. They will start major discharges east and west. If it comes to that the coasts are going to be mess. The Corp has been letting the level rise and the lake algee levels are very high.

 

[Dougcole]

That "M" is never a good thing to see. The trend with every update has been further SE which has pretty much taken us here in Wakulla (on the coast South of Tallahassee) out of the cone and means we will get the weaker side of the storm. But it is very bad for the people SE of us. One more jog and Tampa Bay, with its massive population is square in the crosshairs. Tampa is one of those areas that hasn't really been hit in a long time, many residents there haven't lived in Florida for long and have an odd belief that they are in a "hurricane proof" area. A major hit there would be bad.

 

[Dougcole]

The Army Corp has Lake Okeechobee at about 15.5 feet. Hurricane season is just starting. If levels get to 16.5 feet. They will start major discharges east and west. If it comes to that the coasts are going to be mess. The Corp has been letting the level rise and the lake algee levels are very high.

Great. More red tide.

 

[Kuncicky]

There is always a mixture of emotions, when the path changes so that now it doesn't look like it is going to hit us, but is going to hit someone else instead.

 

[High Wire]

Remember how IAN head faked everyone then swung right into Fort Myers Beach. Be on guard from Marco Is to Panama City.

 

[Larry M]

Archie: I like how the “cone” in your first post updates every time the National Hurricane Center updates theirs.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Latest forecast I saw was Idalia strengthening to a Cat 3 before landfall. Given that Franklin is being pushed eastward I wouldn't be surprised if Idalia shifts a bit to the east as it nears land. Please be safe out there.

 

[Larry M]

RTF: Bite your tongue.

In Jacksonville, we’re all hoping it goes to the west. The current projected path looks like it’s west of Orlando and Jacksonville so the St John’s river won’t flood from precipitation the south like Ian anyway

 

[Kuncicky]

RTF: Bite your tongue.

In Jacksonville, we’re all hoping it goes to the west. The current projected path looks like it’s west of Orlando and the St John’s River so the river won’t flood from the south anyway.

Actually, the 5 PM NHC advisory did push the predicted path just a tad over to the West from where the 11 AM advisory had it. The least populated area would be for it to come almost straight north from where it is now, just to the west of Tallahassee. Trouble is, that is where I live, and we are still recovering from Hurricane Michael back in October of 2018. So one man's meat is another man's poison I guess.


Bill

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. LM. I'm not wishing ill will on anyone but I've been watching the systems and almost everyone coming across from Africa is being blown eastward at some point if there's any N vector.

 

[High Wire]

Archie: I like how the “cone” in your first post updates every time the National Hurricane Center updates theirs.

I just copied the link of the nhc map and it updates automatically.

 

[Barking Sands]

All prepped. Removed expensive items like the Garmin stuff and other tools. But I think we will be fine. We are having very high tides though at the moment even without the Hurricane. Sure wish I was on a modern floating dock.

Done with house prep too. Now its time to gain 5 lbs with hurricane snacks and Chili in the crock pot.

 

[High Wire]

This hurricane is going to do a "Crazy Ivan".

 

[Kuncicky]

This hurricane is going to do a "Crazy Ivan".

You mean cross the Florida peninsula, go out into the Atlantic, turn south, and come around into the Gulf again? Gosh, I hope not! I do vaguely remember Ivan. About 2003 or 2004 if I remember correctly.


Bill

 

[Spike]

Seems the models are starting to back off from that. It sure was interesting for a minute!

 

[Comodave]

This hurricane is going to do a "Crazy Ivan".

Isn’t that where it makes a sudden turn and comes up on you from behind???

 

[High Wire]

Isn’t that where it makes a sudden turn and comes up on you from behind???

With the Atlantic as warm as it is, sure it’s possible.

 

[Comodave]

Yes, it certainly is warm enough this year. Hopefully it isn’t too bad for the people living there.

 

[Coppercove1]

Yes, it certainly is warm enough this year. Hopefully it isn’t too bad for the people living there.

What about the boats in Tampa Bay at marinas? 15 ft of storm surge will probably wipe out piling and leave floats and boats to be washed in with the storm surge.

I hope all the TF people are out of harm’s way!

 

[Barking Sands]

What about the boats in Tampa Bay at marinas? 15 ft of storm surge will probably wipe out piling and leave floats and boats to be washed in with the storm surge.

I hope all the TF people are out of harm’s way!

My opinion is Tampa Bay wont get anywhere near that. Could always be wrong though.

 

[Larry M]

5 am storm surge forecast. 4-6 is still a lot for Tampa Bay but better than north of them.

 

[Barking Sands]

5 am storm surge forecast. 4-6 is still a lot for Tampa Bay but better than north of them.

Yes. The low lying areas will get flooded. My boat at Tarpon appears to have crested 1 foot above the docks and coming down. Hopefully that's the peak. We have another King tide at 1228 this afternoon. In addition the river will swell due to rain. But the wind should be less. Ill be on the boat to see how all that equates.

 

[Barking Sands]

Yes. The low lying areas will get flooded. My boat at Tarpon appears to have crested 1 foot above the docks and coming down. Hopefully that's the peak. We have another King tide at 1228 this afternoon. In addition the river will swell due to rain. But the wind should be less. Ill be on the boat to see how all that equates.

Water levels climbing back up quickly over the last few hours. I wont be able to get to the boat till late afternoon. I would estimate 2 to 3 feet over dock levels.