Great Barrier Reef: Stories of death greatly exaggerated!

[Insequent]

While it suits the agenda of quite a few people and headline writers in the press to shout doom & gloom, death of the Great Barrier Reef isn't going to happen anytime soon.

The Government's Long Term Monitoring program reports annually. Below is from the most recent report, and here is the Report's punchline:

Reef in recovery window after decade of disturbances

Key results
This report summarises the condition of coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) from the Long-Term Monitoring Program (LTMP) surveys of 127 reefs conducted between August 2020 and April 2021 (reported as ‘2021’).
- Over the 35 years of monitoring by AIMS, the reefs of the GBR have shown an ability to recover after disturbances.
- In 2021, widespread recovery was underway, largely due to increases in fast growing Acropora corals.
- Survey reefs experienced low levels of acute stressors over the past 12 months with no prolonged high temperatures or major cyclones. Numbers of outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish on survey reefs have generally decreased; however, there remain ongoing outbreaks on some reefs in the Southern GBR.
- Overall, 59 out of 127 reefs had moderate (>10% - 30%) hard coral cover and 36 reefs had high (>30% - 50%) hard coral cover.
- On the Northern GBR, region-wide hard coral cover was moderate and had continued to increase to 27% from the most recent low point in 2017.
- On the Central GBR region-wide hard coral cover was moderate and had increased to 26% in 2021.
- Region-wide hard coral cover on reefs in the Southern GBR was high and had increased to 39% in 2021.
- In 2020, most of the surveyed reefs experienced heat stress accumulation that produced widespread coral bleaching but was below thresholds where widespread mortality is expected to occur. Consistent with this, surveys in 2021 recorded low coral mortality from the 2020 bleaching event.
- In periods free from acute disturbances, most GBR coral reefs demonstrate resilience through the ability to begin recovery. However, the reefs of the GBR continue to be exposed to cumulative stressors, and the prognosis for the future disturbance regime is one of increased and longer lasting marine heatwaves and a greater proportion of severe tropical cyclones.

For anyone interested in the full report, here is the link.
https://www.aims.gov.au/reef-monitoring/gbr-condition-summary-2020-2021

Lots of other factual info elsewhere on the AIMS website also.

[Needless provocation deleted by OP] By all means plan a visit to dive it yourself as I know some on TF have. But you don't have to rush to do it in the next five minutes. Yes, there are isolated bleached areas, and cumulative damage in places. I saw that during a 5 month cruise in my own boat back in 2018. But the commercial dive charters people will have no trouble taking you to see healthy areas. I saw mostly healthy areas back in 2018......

 

[Benthic2]

On the Northern GBR, region-wide hard coral cover was moderate and had continued to increase to 27% from the most recent low point in 2017.

"Increased to 27%" is hardly a ringing endorsement of reef health.

 

[KnotYet]

What agenda is served by 'laughing at' the ones most outspoken on the ongoing
reef death and habitat destruction?
Does a short term recovery somehow negate the concern over ocean warming?

 

[Insequent]

What agenda is served by 'laughing at' the ones most outspoken on the ongoing
reef death and habitat destruction?

Does a short term recovery somehow negate the concern over ocean warming?

Re: laughing - a bit of schadenfreude.....

As to "ongoing reef death etc" You missed the report's punchline: "Reef in recovery window after decade of disturbances".

Sure, the window may close. There are many stressors involved. Cyclones have created widespread damage, greater I think than the patches of bleaching. Sections of our local media were exaggerating the extent and lasting severity of bleaching creating a lot of disquiet along the coastal communities who wanted a more balanced assessment than "ongoing death and habitat destruction" sensationalism. The report I linked to highlights that the current reef (#7 built upon 6 earlier and extensive reefs) is not only large but quite resilient and starting to recover. It may be able to adapt to ocean warming. The local media is not really interested in the recovery, so far.

 

[BruceK]

The Barrier Reef has been reported dead/dying/doomed/disaster/destroyed for most of my life. It can`t possibly still exist but surprisingly, it does. Reports of its resurrection must rankle with those who misrepresent its condition for their own purposes.

 

[Jeff F]

The Barrier Reef has been reported dead/dying/doomed/disaster/destroyed for most of my life. It can`t possibly still exist but surprisingly, it does. Reports of its resurrection must rankle with those who misrepresent its condition for their own purposes.

Sounds more like remission than resurrection to me.

Whose purpose is served by rapid or unstoppable decline? I'm confused.

 

[KnotYet]

Sounds more like remission than resurrection to me.

Whose purpose is served by rapid or unstoppable decline? I'm confused.

Insequent and BruceK's posts can seem confusing, especially to lovers of
all things aquatic. I had the pleasure of diving on the GBR in 1991 and
even back then I recall murmurings of concern about the long term health of the reef.

I am no expert on the politics of either side but in my opinion the world
wide emergence of the mostly left of center environmental movement has
resulted in a world wide mostly right of center response. I view it as the anti-green agenda.

You don't have to look very hard to see that the anti-greens are mostly
pro petroleum. The resulting dispute distracts attention from the ongoing
reality that our oil addiction has serious costs associated with it that we are passing on to our kids.

Here are some random bits I looked at before typing the above:
https://greenagenda.org.au/about/
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/report/the-s...has-nothing-to-do-with-environmental-concerns
https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/07/the-most-self-destructive-force-in-the-world/

 

[psneeld]

Why is everyone nowadays labled as all one or the other?

Most smart people I know pick and choose battles on a variety of merits....and in degrees of moderation and timing.

One thing I learned awhile back is politics has ltitle to do with being smart, it's relying on the voters not to be. Even the global anything is almost too big for anyone to fully grasp, so bringing it back to smaller, more understandable battles and their consequences are often more productive with foreseeable outcomes

 

[BruceK]

Sounds more like remission than resurrection to me.

Whose purpose is served by rapid or unstoppable decline? I'm confused.

Rightly so, it`s very confusing. But easily resolved by people gluing themselves to underwater coral.

 

[Jeff F]

Rightly so, it`s very confusing. But easily resolved by people gluing themselves to underwater coral.

Gotcha. Here in Canada people chain themselves to trees. It's a long standing practice, and has occasionally led to positive change. Good on them.

I should have recognized the context before posting earlier.

 

[BruceK]

Thanks Jeff. Good to know the reef will be ok! Hope they use a good waterproof glue and reliable snorkel to optimize success.

 

[Andiamo2018]

Why is the TF Site Team voicing their political opinions on the forum?

 

[Peter Pegasus]

Inexorable pressure

Insequent is right to draw attention to this assessment. But TF readers need to know that GBR science in Australia over the last decade or so has been inextricably linked with the political battles over climate change, and in particular, the attempts over the last two years by the Australian government to fend off the critique for international organizations such as IUCN that this World Heritage site--and therefore, a global asset that serves all TF readers and is not an Australian asset--is in danger of long-term and irreversible danger.
I am not taking a position on these specific battles as they pertain to the GBR. To do so would entail becoming truly immersed in the science and the specifics of what's observed in terms of secular trends, not just recent fluctuations in specific indicators.
But in the long term, the GBR--and all coral reefs--are at risk of increasing oceanic acidification, temperature, cyclonic damage, trophic cascades (aka predatory Crown-of-Thorn starfish) and coastal runoff, all of which are amplified by global climate change.
These long term oceanic trends are clear globally and regionally, and the science is robust and consistent. The fact that these challenges have been posed by scientists for most of our lifetime simply means that scientists were on the ball on these issues from the mid-1980s when climate first became a major policy issue. I remember studying GHG emissions rates and magnitudes and calculating ocean carbon uptake and resulting acidification at UC Berkeley in...1979. Half a century later, we are starting to recognize the severity of the peril and the profundity of the changes needed to address these interlinked global problems.
Here are just a couple of random science-based sources on these issues
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1208909109
https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...bined-impacts-warming-and-ocean-acidification
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1208909109
Portals into Australian reef research that TF readers might find useful are the independent-of-government decade-long Coral Reef Studies Australian Research Centre of Excellence
https://www.coralcoe.org.au/legacy/
and the completely government-dependent and highly political Great Barrier Reef Foundation
https://www.barrierreef.org/
We do well to remember that these issues are all relative and also look different according to where you stand and who you are.
10000 years ago during the last ice age, the shoreline extended out to the current reef and was the home of indigenous people whose song-lines extend today over now submerged topography on which coral reefs have grown...leading to recognition of traditional knowledge as a separate source of insight into the pre-inundation history of the reef and new systems of integrated governance in which traditional owners play a role in managing "Sea Country."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-28/traditional-owners-capture-great-barrier-reef-creation-stories/9707068
https://www.publish.csiro.au/pc/Fulltext/PC21013
https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/geoj.12466
https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/geoj.12466
Thanks to Insequent for his provocation which was a nice way to start the day on Evans River at dawn.
I hope this short post helps distant TF readers to understand how the waters we ply such as GBR have many many layers of meaning, most of which are disputed, are inherently political, and none of which can be neglected or dismissed safely.
Other TF readers, especially Ozzies, please chime in!
and I can't resist...how wonderful to watch the Australian Open last night aboard Aquabelle moving gently in the evening breeze. Go Korda!!!

 

[BruceK]

...

Thanks to Insequent for his provocation which was a nice way to start the day on Evans River at dawn.
I hope this short post helps distant TF readers to understand how the waters we ply such as GBR have many many layers of meaning, most of which are disputed, are inherently political, and none of which can be neglected or dismissed safely.
Other TF readers, especially Ozzies, please chime in!
and I can't resist...how wonderful to watch the Australian Open last night aboard Aquabelle moving gently in the evening breeze. Go Korda!!!

Seb Korda`s win over a high seeded player was impressive, more so with retired player(?coach) father Petr Korda, Australian Open 1988 Champion, present. And Ranek Stepanek, who I suspect helped with the game plan.

 

[BruceK]

Post 13 has a link to a www.abc.net.au article. Heads up: although a federal government taxpayer funded national broadcaster operating under a charter of even handedness, the ABC has a strong political bias influencing its editorials, and often its "objective" news reporting. The bias is constant, even with a change of Government. And if the ABC thinks the electors got it wrong it gets more strident. Otherwise it`s a useful news source.

 

[Peter B]

Why is everyone nowadays labled as all one or the other?

Most smart people I know pick and choose battles on a variety of merits....and in degrees of moderation and timing.

One thing I learned awhile back is politics has ltitle to do with being smart, it's relying on the voters not to be. Even the global anything is almost too big for anyone to fully grasp, so bringing it back to smaller, more understandable battles and their consequences are often more productive with foreseeable outcomes

Excellent post psn, excellent post. We should all sit back at times and remind ourselves there are always two sides to any argument - in fact sometimes more than two..?

 

[Andy G]

Yes Peter you are right.

However, what has become more prevalent is people now searching for 'findings' to support their preconceived ideas, be they politicians, commentators or the bloke having a drink next to you at the pub. We seemed to have moved on from listening and understanding scientists and people who have spent lives studying these areas to a quick five minute google search.

For the last decade Australia has had a tortuous public debate regarding climate change, with senior politicians denying it outright, egged on by some in the mining and resources industry and some in news print. Each with their own agenda. This debate has seen the demise of three, perhaps four, Australian Prime Ministers in the last decade.

The only thing I could say with any reasonable certainty of being true is that we all wish the GBR well, and that we do nothing to endanger it. It is after all the largest living organism on earth.

 

[drblank1]

Medieval Warm Period - Warmer than today. 1970's scientists: we were heading to the next ice-age. 1990's scientists: if we're heading to the next ice-age, how do we account for mild winters and hotter summers. Let's call it global warming. Fast forward to today's scientists,: how do we account for the colder winters and milder summer. Let's rebrand to climate change. Follow where the majority of the taxpayers' money is handed out for "science" and you should view that science with a discerning eye. If climate change is real, none of our efforts will mean squat until the world holds China, India, and Russia accountable for the majority of the world's pollution.

It is undeniable there is GBR issues. But is this the natural course of our world and in particular, the reef building upon itself? The reef is built on dead coral skeletons. Or true manmade issues? I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I find those that spend a lot of time in nature (boaters, hunters, hikers, campers, etc...) have more true compassion for nature than most other people, including activists.

People who say "the science is settled" are trying to railroad their agenda down our throats. True science is making a hypothesis and testing. Then refining your hypothesis based on the test data and testing again, and again, and again... Science is NEVER settled.

As nature lovers/boaters, I believe this community will continue to be the leaders in environmental stewardship. God bless.

 

[folivier]

There is so much in the universe and on our own planet that we don't know yet or understand. The science will never be settled. But of course politics has NO place in science.

 

[KnotYet]

Curious as to the agenda supported by drblank1. In particular of being
suspicious of government funding of science without any mention of the
deepest pockets in the game: the petroleum and coal mining industries.

The anti-greens have a habit of pointing at the name change from
'global warming' to 'climate change' which was done to partly to
better align with scientific terminology. It is still globally warming:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surface_temperature

 

[Northern Spy]

I like the idea of scientists wearing their sponsors on their lab coats like a NASCAR team.

 

[KnotYet]

I would 'like' the above comment if that was an option.
Instead I'll just like it.

 

[BruceK]

Seb Korda`s win over a high seeded player was impressive, more so with retired player(?coach) father Petr Korda, Australian Open 1988 Champion, present. And Ranek Stepanek, who I suspect helped with the game plan.

Correction, Petr Korda won the AO in 1998. His son Sebastian, continues undefeated,so far.

 

[drblank1]

Curious as to the agenda supported by drblank1. In particular of being
suspicious of government funding of science without any mention of the
deepest pockets in the game: the petroleum and coal mining industries.

The anti-greens have a habit of pointing at the name change from
'global warming' to 'climate change' which was done to partly to
better align with scientific terminology. It is still globally warming:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surface_temperature

Your post humors me. Curious as to your agenda inferring I am an "anti-green" and why you didn't give a big amen regarding the biggest polluters on the planet.

Many nature lovers like me know more study is needed on climate change. We use thought and reason to decide for ourselves. Climate change could be real or not real. Yes, its gotten hotter in some year, and cooler in others. Point is, more study is needed.

I am a conservationist and anti-pollution (again why I mention the BIGGEST polluters on the planet). Big oil has caused a lot of damage to the environment. Big oil is motived by money just as those tax funded scientists. They both are cut from the same cloth, just have different patterns. If you don't think money and politics play a guiding role in the tax-funded scientists, I have have a bridge to sell you.

 

[KnotYet]

You are mistaken, to 'humor' somebody means that... never mind.

Mainly hotter.

 

[BruceK]

Correction, Petr Korda won the AO in 1998. His son Sebastian, continues undefeated,so far.

But, now no more, falling to Khachanov.

 

[drblank1]

You are mistaken, to 'humor' somebody means that... never mind.

Mainly hotter.

Attaboy

 

[Insequent]

I'm a little hesitant to post again. I was more provocative in starting the thread than intended. I ought to have simply said "there is light at the end of the tunnel". That might not seem like much to many people, but it is important. I see the latest report, which can be found in the link below, in the same way.

https://australianinstituteofmarinescience.cmail20.com/t/j-e-eohult-ddttuhxv-ir/

 

[Insequent]

Some news articles prompted me to post again.

The papers can present some facts that federal politicians and others would rather avoid. I've also posted a link to the Snapshot referred to if anyone wants to dig deeper.

https://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspu...92cc-77b3aebfaec0/SummerSnapshot 2022-23 .pdf

Seems to be a case of bad news gets lots of publicity, but good news is ignored.

 

[sunchaser]

Here we go again hoping our links and agendas will persuade those we’ve never met to accept our version of irrefutable logic.