I was wrong, TWICE

[PM]

Although not too recently, I was very wrong in two of the threads I started.

One was a very popular thread, still occasionally being added to months later. "Can the Cruise Industry Survive?" I answered my own question by saying "Of course it can and will" I am now thinking that was the wrong answer. The industry may survive but barely and only with major changes. Changes some operators will be unwilling or unable tomake to survive. GOOD RIDDANCE!!

The other blanket statement I made was also VERY wrong. I stated that the prices on boats was going to drop like a stone. The economy was , and still is bad. I thought people would not be buying anything expensive, much less a luxury item like a boat. Oh how wrong can a small town boy be? R.Vs and boats are selling like crazy. It is a sellers market. People are not traveling to Europe, Canada, Hawaii, many of the tropic islands are basically closed. Literally millions of people are buying boats to explore our coastline and have family vacations. Praise the Lord.

pete

 

[Comodave]

I never wanted to go on a cruise ship and the virus certainly confirmed that decision. Never.

 

[twistedtree]

It's really interesting how unpredictable things can be.

 

[menzies]

Sell low, buy high!!

 

[alormaria]

Easy.

Just do the exact opposite of what you think would be the right thing.

Like George Costanza.

 

[rgano]

I never wanted to go on a cruise ship and the virus certainly confirmed that decision. Never.

I won't go on any vessel they won't let me drive.

 

[CaptTom]

Both good points to ponder.

I wonder if the people rushing out to buy boats are going to be selling in droves when they can book a flight to an all-inclusive resort again.

I'd seen a lot of what I call "Clampett" boaters before COVID. You know, they came into some money and "folks all said" they should buy a boat. Just like the line from the opening theme of the Beverly Hillbillies. They don't tend to become "real" boaters. They tire of it pretty quickly and either sell out, or the boat sits in the marina and never gets used. I suspect we'll see more of them now, and perhaps there will be a buyer's market soon.

On your other point, I still think the hard-core cruise ship passengers will return. I have no idea whether the cruise lines can survive until then, but I've been on a few cruise ships, and I got a norovirus on one once. I wouldn't go today, but I'd go again some day if conditions were the same as before (no active pandemic.) Especially if I didn't have my own boat to go cruising on.

 

[lwarden]

Spoke to my sister this weekend, she and her boyfriend had an Alaska cruise booked in May. They offered her 125% refund as a credit or a full refund. She took the credit. I asked her if she had considered if the company (Celebrity) would still be in business to cash in the credit. She said she didn't think about that back then but now thinks it was a bad decision.

I'm not a fan of cruise ships and would never take one myself, wife feels the same, but I suspect it will come back to some extent once this passes.

Regarding boat prices: I was due to close in March on my Lindell when things got locked down. We scrapped the deal in the last week since I simply couldn't travel up to finalize it. I was initially thinking the market would drop and I would have a chance to find something at a better price, but after watching the market for a bit I got nervous things were going the opposite way, which they obviously did. Good boats were going quickly for high prices so I re-initiated the deal and we closed as fast as the title company could get all the paperwork done.

Toys of all sorts and used cars and trucks are also selling at a premium. Certainly doesn't reflect the unemployment numbers or GDP for the country. Go figure...

 

[bayview]

pete:

Seems to me that even economists are mostly wrong. My forecasts of many things have been wrong, (No apple hasn't dropped. etc.) Often things turn out the way we predict but it takes a lot longer the comment above about prices dripping when all those non habitual boaters decide to get out is my bet. For most of us we always have a boat all those newbies probably wont last.

 

[bayview]

pete: Would your wife agree that you have only been wrong twice? []

 

[Lepke]

Currently a lot of cruise ships are in the bid process for scrapping.