Parts of this future are already here.

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GFC

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Some of these are already here today... some are a bit far fetched for the near future...but makes you think


1 — Auto repair shops will disappear.


2 — A gas/diesel engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor.


3 — Faulty electric motors are NOT repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS.


4 — Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a car wash and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee. Then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component.


5 — Gas stations will go away!


6 — Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations. In fact they've already started in developed countries.


7 — Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build ONLY electric cars.


8 — The coal industry will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So, say goodbye to OPEC. The Middle East is in trouble!


9 — Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day than they use. It will be sold back to the grid. The grid will store and dispense it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?


10 — A baby of today will only see "personal cars" in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.


11 — In 1998 Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?


12 — What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5–10 years and most people don't even see it coming.


13 — Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today's smartphones, who has a camera these days?


14 — Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law. As with exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years.


15 — It will now happen again (but much faster) with artificial intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.


16 — Forget the book "Future Shock." Welcome to the 4th industrial revolution.


17 — Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5 to 10 years.


18 — UBER is just a software tool (they don't own any cars) and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Ask a taxi driver if they saw that coming!


19 — AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world but they don't own any properties. Ask Hilton Hotels or Marriott if they saw that coming!


20 — Artificial intelligence (AI): computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year a computer beat the best Go-player in the world (10 years earlier than expected).


21 — In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs (because of IBM's WATSON). You can get legal advice within a few seconds for the basic stuff with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you're studying law, STOP IMMEDIATELY! There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future. What a thought! Only omniscient specialists will remain.


22 — WATSON already helps nurses diagnosing cancer. It's 4 times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses.


23 — Facebook now has 'face recognition' software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030 computers will become more intelligent than humans!


24 — Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here. In the next few years, the entire auto industry will be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore since you will call for a car with your phone and it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.


25 — You will not need to park it. You will pay only for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. Young children of today will never get a driver's license and they will never own a car.


26 — This will change our cities because we will need 90% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks.


27 — About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide, including distracted or drunk drivers. Currently, there is one accident per every 60,000 miles driven. However, with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles. That will save a million-plus lives each year!


28 — Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. They will try the evolutionary approach and build a better car while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take a revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.


29 — Look at what Volvo is doing right now... no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2020 models. They are using all-electric or hybrids only with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not-too-distant future.


30 — Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla. Look at all the companies now offering all-electric vehicles. That was unheard of only a few years ago.


31 — Insurance companies will have massive trouble too, because without accidents, the cost of insurance will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.


32 — Real estate will change, because if you can work while you commute or you can work from your home, people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties.


33 — Electric cars will become mainstream by 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run ONLY on electricity.


34 — Cities will have much cleaner air.


35 — Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean and eventually, free!


36 — Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact and it's just starting to get ramped up.


37 — Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue. Technology will take care of that strategy in the not-too-distant future.


38 — Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device called the "Tricorder" that works with your phone and takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it. It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health.
 
I don't see oil going away until a solution for airplanes and orbital/planetary rockets comes about. Hydrogen might be a solution, but I'd have to ask some smart person to do the energy/mass calculations to see if it beats jet fuel, or liquid/solid rocket motors.
 
"....but I'd have to ask some smart person to do the energy/mass calculations to see if it beats jet fuel, or liquid/solid rocket motors."

Well that smart person qual leaves me standing alongside the highway. Next to my electric car that ran out of juice 'cause I forgot it was electric.
 
Such nonsense. Is this better in the humour thread?
 
Greetings,
Mr. X. Too much? I guess (post #2) I WAS better to leave out meteors, pole shifts, worldwide volcanism, reptilians currently in world governments wanting to institute a NWO, interlopers from the 4th dimension, aliens (one of MY fav's) and the closure of the Sriracha sauce plant in California although with Cali' going to slide off into the Pacific that last point is moot...



iu



Seriously. There IS some merit to Mr. GFC's post IMO.
 
The sauce plant closed? I didn't know! My wife will be shattered...
 
The oil industry will not go away. There are a vast number of things you can do with oil and its components that are way more valuable than merely setting it alight.
 
I had a brand new BMW electric car with a scooter motor as a generator/get-home thing. It was expensive and interesting as it was carbon fibre frame and plastic fenders and had a sort of an interesting look. Strange interior made of recycled garbage. It was fast, but software glitches effected the steering which suddenly got heavy and felt like something broke (you'd think BMW would know all about steering by now) the "smart" hazard-dodging sensors nearly sent me in the ditch about 6 times and when the sun was out, it would suddenly brake hard causing lots of excitement behind me as followers tried to dodge me; it was enough to make me fear for my life getting rear-ended by an F150 or shot.

They took it back and gave me a later, more-loaded version and it did the same except the steering worked. Plugging in the car to 120 volts as an "emergency" charger, the computer said it would take 56 hours for a full charge. Imagine leaving your toaster on for 2 and a bit days then look at your hydro bill.

Lining up for public chargers was a nightmare if you could find one that worked, some would quit while you were charging which meant a phone call and some waiting while the charger was rebooted. How would you tolerate a 90 minute wait at a gas station?

It's gone, good riddance. "Electric cars don't run on electricity, they run on subsidies."

Which reminds me, I got a quote on a 240 volt home charger, retail at 1300 Loonies. There is a $750 government subsidy with them. The installer said they cost $300 before the subsidy!

Electric cars have a long way to go yet, they are just cars without a conventional drive train. Steering, cruise control, windows, brakes, suspensions all need maintenance or repairs and the tires wear really fast because of the weight.

The only thing, apart from the quiet running which scared the crap out of cyclists and mum's with prams, was the regenerative braking. Electric cars don't coast so when you get off the gas, they slow to a stop. This saves brakes which get very rusty from lack of use but is very nice in traffic, as long as the damn thing didn't see Caspar and jam on the brakes on the highway!

All those various governments that are banning internal combustion by a fixed date have their heads firmly where the sun doesn't shine. California is one, how does millions of electric cars plugged in at night in a jurisdiction where there are rolling brownouts now, expect to supply enough power? The other argument is that power is cheaper at night but millions of cars plugged in at night? Not cheap for long; power will be very expensive as somebody needs to pay for the massive power generation needed plus replace the gasoline taxes. Also, electric cars are heavy so the roads will wear out faster.

Oh and all the wiring is covered with soy-based insulation, which is heaven for a rat, a warm and quiet house with tons of food.

Tesla's recently were the very worst for reliability, despite having "20,000 fewer parts" so I would say this is not necessarily a positive thing, eh?
 
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The future is notoriously hard to predict. What was originally posted has a lot of truth in it but is very short sighted. If we apply it to major metropolitan areas only it will be more accurate than if applied to rural America and much less accurate if applied to third world countries.

That said, I believe the change will happen in a 5 year window. Meaning if today the first autonomist self drive car were to be sold then I believe five years later 85% of the US urban population would have given up car ownership in exchange for self driving taxi cabs. It would then take another 5 years for the suburban population to achieve the same numbers.

No doubt, once this change starts it will happen very rapidly. One only needs to look at Cell phones from 1993 to 1998 or Smart phones from 2007 to 2012.

Ever since 2016 I have been transferring investments from the automotive support area (parts, repair, insurance) to AI. I see a lot of future in transportation. I see no future in personal cars. I don't believe that I have bought my last personal car. I do believe I have bought my last urban personal transportation vehicle.
 
Maybe, but not 5 years! Advances in software are one thing, but even Tesla struggles with software. Way too many unintended consequences...
 
"Advances in software are one thing, but even Tesla struggles with software. Way too many unintended consequences..."

Even Uncle struggles with software the F 35 or 737 MAX comes to mind.

"The coal industry will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So, say goodbye to OPEC. The Middle East is in trouble!"

Back to wooden boats , wooden cars and all wood motorcycles?

I thought CO2 was the current problem not plastic , lubricants and glues.

"I do believe I have bought my last urban personal transportation vehicle."

Glad you included urban ,,its hard to consider how uber could make a living with folks as much as 50 miles from a place to shop.

"This will change our cities because we will need 90% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks."

Gona be a heck of a water and electric bill to get light into parking garage parks in cities.

There are many folks looking at slowing climate change , that does not include CO2 or hydrocarbons , although change has been ongoing for a couple of billion years.
 
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Believe the OPs opinion is well grounded but doesn’t include several factors.

Some current applications will likely be grandfathered. Believe this is necessary as to do otherwise would cause to much economic upheaval to too many people. Many get a decade or two of service life out of current vehicles. So even if all truck, agricultural devices and personal vehicles were only produced in EV forms prior forms will be continued to be in use and serviced.

Just built a zero footprint house. It’s entirely dependent on the use of hydrocarbons. Structure includes
Stone dust in resin and plastic sheathing
Steel beam coated in epoxy.
Lamibeam-wood in HC derived glues.
HC derived plastics for many structural elements. Outside posts, rails, architectural elements etc.
Factory farming is dependent on oil.
On a daily basis virtually all my consumables come to me wrapped in plastic.

So a hydrocarbon source will be necessary for the indefinite future even if use in internal combustion engines fall. Oil production will fall and OPEC nations know this as can be seen in the transformation of investment portfolios they currently own. One does hope that Adam Smith applies and our personal expenses for diesel/gasoline doesn’t become onerous during this transition.
 
Thank god! We all have fuel efficient boats with zero emissions! Not dripping copper and bottom coat concoctions into the oceans! Had me worried there for a bit....so that’s good the only problem is those dirt people!
 
If someone had put together such a list of predictions in 2005, I am absolutely CERTAIN that it would have had nothing in it about smart-phones. Indeed, at the time cell phones were getting ever smaller and smaller, so the prediction about phones would have been about how much smaller they would be.
Z

Z


Most such prediction lists miss the really big, really innovative changes that actually alter our society.
 
I don't think the point of GFC's post is at all that everything on the list will happen exactly as shown, but that things will be very different and the list gives clues as to some of the change. I'm not a "first adapter" type but a "fairly early adapter." I do so when technologies are somewhat proven.

I do know change is coming more rapidly than I expected. However, many changes I see happening had previous false starts. A couple of examples. The ability to communicate on web cams has been here for years. However, over the past year, most doctors appointments have been telehealth and a large percentage of school and much of visits with friends and family and a sizeable percentage of workers. We don't know where that will shake out, but just based on that I have these predictions.

-I believe a significant percentage of doctors visits will continue telehealth. The only obstacle is insurance. There is a lot that can be done remotely. My prediction is 30% post pandemic.
-I believe a lot of college will be remote. It's been increasingly available. It works. We have friends who have done so. It sure makes things easier for a working student. As to secondary and elementary education, I think we've upgraded the ability outside the classroom but not to the point of it being a substitute. However, absent students will be able to sit in class remotely. We also have upgraded electronic provision of assignments and other levels of communications.
-We've been communicating on web with our niece since her birth over six years ago, but I think now families will be brought closer by phones and computers. There is no excuse for grandparents not seeing their grandchildren and it doesn't make personal and hugs obsolete but makes them even better since you know each other better. It's funny how long ago video phones were tried but now here we are. Our communications with major customers are now heavily video and in the middle of a pandemic have been so welcomed by all. To see who you're talking to really facilitates more pleasant business interactions.
-I think employees who previously went to the office will in the future do so at a rate of around 50%. There are some companies that offices will become rarely used for collaboration. Other businesses will be mixed as will ours. Now, some employers will reduce office space. We've chosen not to do that but we also make it optional on most days. I think we'll end up with it used at a rate of around 60%.
-I continue to hope for the cost of satellite communications to come down more. It's come down in recent years but not low enough yet for mass usage. There are the obvious like the meetings we have when we're on our boat, but there are other uses like the invaluability we discovered of satellite phones when a hurricane hits. Will satellite become like wireless one day?
-I resisted hybrid for years. It didn't make sense for me. It still doesn't for my personal car, although much closer. However, I don't think we're far from the end of gas only cars and all electric will follow but I have no idea how many years or decades. Hybrid sure moved slow.
-Speaking of slow moving, there is solar. Will it remain slow or take a leap sometime as battery technology moves forward perhaps? I don't know. I wish it made sense for my home. I'm putting it on some business locations even though it really is more driven by desire than a lot of logic.
-I think we'll have both Covid and Flu seasons and annual vaccines, but have we learned enough about masks and distancing to reduce the annual impact of both and have we learned enough about vaccines to make a better flu vaccine? I don't know. I suspect we'll do better but not as good as we could be. I know in business we will take better steps to protect employees.
-Delivery is a real quagmire as the consumer loves it but isn't paying the cost and in many cases the retailer (online, store, restaurant, grocery store, pharmacy) can't afford the cost long term. Are drones or driverless vehicles the future? I have no idea if or when.
-Computers are smarter but I'll tell you I hate bots with a passion, hate clicking on a chat link and getting one. Their vocabulary and understanding is still very lacking.
-One on GFC's I believe is here is diagnosis from home. Telehealth doctor, you hook up to equipment, he gets what he needs. Ultimately, I can see scanning. Here's one that's already hit. Doctors have complex equipment and charge thousands for a sleep study to diagnose apnea. You can now do from home for $200 on equipment from vendors like Respironics that really are great. In many ways better because your normal sleeping conditions.
-I think GFC will have hits on about a third of his list but that's a lot of change and far more change in things he hasn't even imagined yet.
 
One of many problems that GFC overlooks is that some of his proposed solutions would only work if there were far fewer people, and others, like the ending of coal and oil, would fail immediately (many other products made from hydrocarbons), or fail through dis-economies of scale or of the sourcing of electricity.
American electric supply infrastructure, including generation, barely supports current useage.
Massive increases of demand (line-delivered wattage for electric cars vs BTUs of gasoline) can not be delivered to the end users without a complete overhaul / tripling of our electric distribution system, or the elimination of private transportation for most people.
GFC also glosses over the source(s) of the electric power needed. Currently, the production of much of the fuel rods used for nuclear power plants depends on a coal-fired power plant in Western Kentucky.
Many nice, but currently impractical to impossible, ideas here.
JohnS
 
I'm still hung up on point 24....
24 — Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here. In the next few years, the entire auto industry will be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore since you will call for a car with your phone and it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.


What will the young do for their rite of passage into adulthood..? Not being able to get their licence and ultimately their first car..? Like a cowboy getting his/her first horse. Wow..! How depressing to think there'll be nothing to aspire to but some 'device'.

It sounds pretty boring...but I'll be gone by then, 'so why worry now', like the Knoffler song goes... :socool:
 
I would be far less cynical (not really) if these useless idiots would say that they had a plan to build 100 new power plants and the grid would be expanded to such and such so that we could support X number of electric vehicles by 203x. Instead, they say "all internal combustion vehicles will be banned by 2030." You know that is total claptrap and won't ever happen but they will only be around for four years or so and they will (hopefully) be long forgotten and so will their nonsense.

There is no panacea. None. Get people to stop throwing McDonald's bags out their car windows and boaters from stern-tying to trees and throwing their garbage overboard, stop taking illegal fish from closed areas, all the chicken-$&#@ stuff Joe Blow does now and hopefully that will make a difference to the environment because if you think you can get people to be responsible, just take a look at the US' last election.
 
I'm still hung up on point 24....
24 — Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here. In the next few years, the entire auto industry will be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore since you will call for a car with your phone and it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.


What will the young do for their rite of passage into adulthood..? Not being able to get their licence and ultimately their first car..? Like a cowboy getting his/her first horse. Wow..! How depressing to think there'll be nothing to aspire to but some 'device'.

It sounds pretty boring...but I'll be gone by then, 'so why worry now', like the Knoffler song goes... :socool:

NYC kids already go through that.
 
One of many problems that GFC overlooks is that some of his proposed solutions would only work if there were far fewer people, and others, like the ending of coal and oil, would fail immediately (many other products made from hydrocarbons), or fail through dis-economies of scale or of the sourcing of electricity.
American electric supply infrastructure, including generation, barely supports current useage.
Massive increases of demand (line-delivered wattage for electric cars vs BTUs of gasoline) can not be delivered to the end users without a complete overhaul / tripling of our electric distribution system, or the elimination of private transportation for most people.
GFC also glosses over the source(s) of the electric power needed. Currently, the production of much of the fuel rods used for nuclear power plants depends on a coal-fired power plant in Western Kentucky.
Many nice, but currently impractical to impossible, ideas here.
JohnS
You bring up a good point about how much energy it takes to extract, refine and manufacture uranium 'fuel'. It takes years of generation to even break even and thats after spending a dozen years building the multi-billion dollar power plants.
Let's not even think about the decommissioning and waste disposal bills the taxpayers will end up paying.

Fortunately for us all, there are as many new nuclear power plants being built as coal. :thumb:
 
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My post 21 was, of course, somewhat tongue in cheek, but I get the fact GFC was merely kite-flying also. However, it is a fair bet many of the things he predicted will eventually come to pass, and some may well not. But probably after a lot longer than predicted. Rather like space travel. We are still a long way from that envisaged in Buck Rogers. After all, we're still using Jumbo Jets that are about 40+ years old, and they are yet to perfect landing re-usable rockets back on land. :facepalm: :D

The plus of that is that the electricity grid production will have time to be vamped up to meet the inevitable hugely increased demand for electricity, and produced in greener ways than much of it is now. it will be a bit like evolution - slow..! :popcorn:
 
" But probably after a lot longer than predicted"

I still have a couple of 50's era Popular Science with a cover showing an air craft in every suburban garage.

Still waiting,,,,,
 
Although much of the American public continues to have trouble accepting MMCC for the world at large there has been an acceptance with the resultant paradigm shift. In order to remain economically competitive the large US companies and the multinationals have moved on the basis of this paradigm shift and have been acting on it for quite some time now. This started before the last administration, during it and will continue after it . Seems obvious that totally independently of the presence or absence of governmental actions the large caps and multinationals will continue to act on the basis of continuing MMCC.

One of my son in laws is an engineer who works on hydrology contracts. His clients are local governments, large scale developers and industrial instillations. Throughout that branch of engineering MMCC has been accepted and the associated modeling of future events as well. They plan for a 25-100year window depending on service life of the construction involved. Although governmental regulations are a driver it’s MMCC that’s the major driver.

So to those who deny MMCC or say the world hasn’t accepted it as truth. At all levels of economic activity the world has and is evolving accordingly.
 
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FF-you may be right. Yes, we are already a day late and a dollar short. In response to this major entities are in process of mitigation efforts. Look at the major port of Europe-Rotterdam. The Dutch engineering of that port is most remarkable. Or look at the plans Hoboken has undertaken after Sandy. Even the entire port of NY/NJ is in process of developing mitigation.
Throughout the world there’s a basic understanding we are too late to not experience untoward climate change. This is a accepted fact and understanding that mitigation measures are of massive importance.
If you intend to cruise high lightening strike areas like Florida the older smaller luggers and current mechanical Betas are gold. They will become the Gardners of the future. But that doesn’t deny turbo’d, common rail is all you can get at higher HP. Additional demands for greater efficiency and less particulate will continue. Boats don’t have regenerative braking but do have several advantages. Most SD hulls are run at a very limited range of SOG. Most transits are short. That’s true even for transoceanic cruisers let alone coastal users. The technology for diesel electric and hybrid propulsion is way underway with multiple systems currently commercially available. In conjunction with LiFePO4 banks supplied by solar and wind many short transits can in part or in whole be done without burning hydrocarbons. Believe this technology will continue to have further development and be commercially offered at an acceptable price point.
Artnautica looked at offering it now. They declined as its just short of a good economic choice but rather moved to use solar for all at anchor needs and small betas for propulsion. Their hulls are orders of magnitude more easily driven than many prior recreational trawler designs. Total annual burn on one of these vessels is minute c/w historical designs. Expect this trend to expand throughout the industry. Expect mixed alt. energy and HC propulsion to as well.
 
Geesh, guys, can I come out from hiding yet? Please don't shoot the messenger.
 
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