49th Parallel Rumor

[AlaskaProf]

The Canadians here who I've grown to respect (are you listening, Murray?) seem to have a very dim view of the likelihood of a border opening this summer, with good reason.

But the guy in the next slip here in Tacoma just made a reservation at Otter Bay, BC, for July! He says the proprietor was guardedly optimistic (reservation is refundable). Does he know something?

 

[MurrayM]

Oh, I don't know...

Parts of the lower mainland have high(ish) test positively rates, and I've heard that the Provincial number is supposed to get below 5% before things start opening up. Looks like it's about 7% right now.

Hard to imagine an International border opening up when there are still travel restrictions between regions within British Columbia.

 

[AlaskaProf]

Oh, I don't know...

Hard to imagine an International border opening up when there are still travel restrictions between regions within British Columbia.

I did point out that exact fact to my neighbor.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Aw snap! I thought it was going to be about THE 49th parallel. A classic movie. The suspense...the drama...those craft Canadians (Raymond Massey and Johnnie, the trapper).


https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0033627/

 

[MurrayM]

AlaskaProf...I've heard a rumour that your rumor is baseless, and who wants to come north anyways when they'll be lucky to see temperatures over 30 degrees.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. MM. Forecast here is 31 for tomorrow. Another couple of degrees and the house starts going...

 

[MurrayM]

Greetings,
Mr. MM. Forecast here is 31 for tomorrow. Another couple of degrees and the house starts going...

Oh, us poor Canucks. Anything over 25 and I start to overheat.

Another tip for the neighbours beneath us: we're crazy on highways where people drive 100, in the slow lane!

 

[AlaskaProf]

AlaskaProf...I've heard a rumour that your rumor is baseless, and who wants to come north anyways when they'll be lucky to see temperatures over 30 degrees.

I believe that within the next 25 years we will join the 20th century and adopt the metric thermometer.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. AP. Don't hold your breath.


A number of years back I was in the NAPA in Elizabeth City, NC. getting some parts for the boat. A woman came up to the counter and asked the next associate over for a starter motor for a 2002 Chevy Cavalier. The guy asked "Is that the one with the SAE bolts or the metric bolts?" The woman said, "I don't know, the metric business is stupid". Guy asks " What size is the engine?" Woman answers 2.2L.


Go figure...

 

[SteveK]

The border closure was just extended to June 21st. Expect an opening July 5th.

 

[Jeff F]

Hard to imagine an International border opening up when there are still travel restrictions between regions within British Columbia.

It's a long border. Here in Ontario we will be able to use our boats this weekend after a month-long prohibition under COVID lockdown. The premier of the province is calling for increased border restrictions. And the east coast won't even let in people from outside the region.

We're not there yet.

 

[tiltrider1]

I keep hearing these rumors from my friends in state government. So far they have been wrong. There seems to be some discussion between our two governments (on the Federal level) and this keeps setting off the rumors. Unfortunately I don't know anyone close enough to the talks to get the truth on where the discussion is at. I only know people who know that there is a discussion.

 

[AusCan]

Patience people.
It doesn't make much sense to open borders yet unless the vaccination rate can get up to around 75%.

As a comparison, Australia isn't looking at allowing allowing any international visitors until mid 2022, and our present infection rate is only 0.1%, with almost all of these cases currently in quarantine.

Looking at the economic side alone, the countries with low infection rates have had the best economic recovery.

 

[BruceK]

... Australia isn't looking at allowing allowing any international visitors until mid 2022, and our present infection rate is only 0.1%, with almost all of these cases currently in quarantine.

".1%" seems to be the percentage of the entire population infected throughout the pandemic. It`s definitely not the number currently infected.

Govt. figures say there are currently 119 infections Australia wide. Most if not all in overseas arrival quarantine

Total infections to date 29,997.

Total deaths 910.

Australia`s population is 25.8M.

 

[sunchaser]

I believe that within the next 25 years we will join the 20th century and adopt the metric thermometer.

Temperature metric? Weights and measures sure, but degrees K and R will never be replaced. To add to the confusion for general use the question remains, at what temperatures does water freeze and boil? Oops, no answer possible without knowing what kind of water and where?

 

[OldDan1943]

The border closure was just extended to June 21st. Expect an opening July 5th.

But, if you fuel up at a US port, I do believe you can still transit Canadian waters. You may still need permission from someone.

How many statute miles is it from Washington waters to AK waters?

My bro lives in MI and say the Canadians are relaxing a bit. Just cant come anywhere near the land. SHRUG

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. s. You forgot about water's triple point. 0.4C, if I "recall". What day is it today????

 

[MurrayM]

Patience people.
It doesn't make much sense to open borders yet unless the vaccination rate can get up to around 75%...

That's the next thing to keep an eye on.

As far as first vaccinations go, Canada has vaccinated a greater percentage of adults than the US despite a late start and having offloaded its vaccine production capability to other countries years ago.

The percentage of people coming forward for their first shot is levelling off in the US while the numbers in Canada have not seen a reduction.

Estimates are that Canada will have 70% of adults getting their first shot in early June while the US hopes to have that by early July.

The questions are;

1) will Canada wait to open up the border fully when 70% of Canadian adults have their second shots? (Haven't seen what percentage it will actually be or estimates of when that might occur) and,

2) will there be limitations of some sort put on the border to countries who have not achieved a certain percentage of vaccinations?

Right now (May 17th) Canada has given first doses to 44.7 per cent of its population. In the United States, it’s 47.3 per cent.

First doses is an important metric, for not only do first doses slow the spread of COVID-19 within communities but they are “a sign of people’s willingness to get vaccinated,” says Trevor Tombe, an associate professor of economics at the University of Calgary...

https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada-is-about-to-surpass-the-u-s-in-first-doses-of-the-covid-vaccine/

 

[sunchaser]

Greetings,
Mr. s. You forgot about water's triple point. 0.4C, if I "recall". What day is it today????

Yup. It is even more confusing when considering that triple points are largely theoretical and if using degrees C figures are to 6 decimal points. Which for the purist means perfectly distilled water boils at different temperatures as tides go up and down.

BTW, "today" is cloudy with a 94% chance of rain in Ketchikan. But that is AK time.

 

[SteveK]

Point Roberts border will open before the Blaine border as the residents there are vaccinated and are/were frequent travelers using facilities in Delta.

Meanwhile though Americans were ahead by % that gap is closing and we will soon get ahead as US citizens are slowly resisting getting shot. North Dakota is giving surplus vaccines to Canadian Truckers.
Negotiations to open are underway. After the two holidays in July borders will open with restrictions. We are running out of reasons to keep them closed.

Meanwhile, if you followed marine traffic there are a large number of US boats making the trek to Alaska. That crossing is less restricted already.

 

[dannc]

The Wall Street Journal has an article about vaccination rates in the US.

They guess, based on the current jab rate, that 75% of the population will be vaccinated by Oct 26. This is a BS date, since the rate of vaccinations, based on their own information, has been falling since roughly the end of April. The rate is on a downward slope.

Currently, the US 48% of the population with one shot and 38% with fully vaccinated. Canada is 49% and 4%.

The countries with the highest vaccination rates have small populations and are islands. The best is the Seychelles which has 71% with one shot and 68% full vaccinated. The other countries are in the 60% for one shot. Surprisingly, at least to me, Israel which has a been lauded for it's vaccination efforts, is 63% with one shot and 59% fully vaccinated.

Makes one wonder if the goal of 70% or 75% vaccinated is going to happen.

Later,
Dan

 

[tiltrider1]

The US recognizes the falling rates of people getting vaccinated. It is currently implementing a plan to take the vaccinations to the people. We have a severe laziness issue in the US, it is believed if we go more direct to the people we will be able to achieve the 70%.

 

[Kawini]

Here’s some grist for the rumor mill.

I made the transit from Friday Harbor to Ketchikan last week. When I cleared into Canada in Sidney, I asked the CBSA agent if she had heard anything within her agency about a possible opening of the border. She said that she felt it was highly unlikely that the border would open before the end of the summer.

She explained that the vaccination supply in Canada remains low, and that the population is being asked to wait for four months between their injections of the two-shot vaccines (as opposed to 3 or 4 weeks in the US). Even if there is faster adoption in Canada - which I hope is the case - there is simply not enough vaccine supply to go around for the time being. That combined with a desire to avoid anything like a summer “tourist season” in Canada will likely prompt the Canadian government to keep the border closed until September at the earliest - according to the CBSA agent I spoke with.

And that’s the rumor I heard!

 

[MurrayM]

...Currently, the US 48% of the population with one shot and 38% with fully vaccinated. Canada is 49% and 4%...

Me-thinks Canada rolled the dice a bit early on and decided to concentrate on getting first doses in arms instead of two shot full vaccinations because we are dependant on other countries for our vaccines.

A recent 1.3 million person study in Scotland found that people with one Pfizer shot had a 90% less chance of being hospitalized with Covid-19. That's good enough for now!

Looks like it was a good gamble.

 

[MurrayM]

Here’s some grist for the rumor mill.

I made the transit from Friday Harbor to Ketchikan last week. When I cleared into Canada in Sidney, I asked the CBSA agent if she had heard anything within her agency about a possible opening of the border. She said that she felt it was highly unlikely that the border would open before the end of the summer.

She explained that the vaccination supply in Canada remains low, and that the population is being asked to wait for four months between their injections of the two-shot vaccines (as opposed to 3 or 4 weeks in the US). Even if there is faster adoption in Canada - which I hope is the case - there is simply not enough vaccine supply to go around for the time being. That combined with a desire to avoid anything like a summer “tourist season” in Canada will likely prompt the Canadian government to keep the border closed until September at the earliest - according to the CBSA agent I spoke with.

And that’s the rumor I heard!

Sounds a bit more realistic than the hopeful proprietor generated rumour in the first post.

 

[gsholz]

My money is on the lockdown continuing till 2022. Most past flu epidemics lasted 2+ years. There is a good chance that we'll see another wave(let) in the fall. There is already talk about the need for booster shots. YMMV.

 

[MurrayM]

Then there are the variants.

India’s B.1.617 is said to be 50% more transmissible than the British variant which has a reputation for being very easily transmitted compared to the original virus.

If 50% of the people are vaccinated but you have a much more easily spread virus, there is still a problem.

 

[Kawini]

By the way, a BIG thanks from me to the Canadian government for allowing US boaters to pass through BC to Alaska with a minimum of fuss. It seems to me - and I might be wrong - that there’s a fair amount of grumbling in Canada about the transiting US boats. As things stand right now, American boaters have more liberty and freedom to move about in BC than Canadian boaters.

The friendly accommodation by the government is VERY appreciated.

 

[AlaskaProf]

But, if you fuel up at a US port, I do believe you can still transit Canadian waters. You may still need permission from someone.

How many statute miles is it from Washington waters to AK waters?

700 nautical from Seattle to Ketchikan. But that misses the point. For many of us, (I've made the passage three times), BC is a big part of the experience. As much as I want one more trip, it has to include sausage rolls at Barb's in Ganges, Nanaimo bars at Mon Petite Choux, and Cowpuchino in Prince Rupert...and maybe Canada Day at the Vancouver Rowing Club.

 

[MurrayM]

By the way, a BIG thanks from me to the Canadian government for allowing US boaters to pass through BC to Alaska with a minimum of fuss. It seems to me - and I might be wrong - that there’s a fair amount of grumbling in Canada about the transiting US boats. As things stand right now, American boaters have more liberty and freedom to move about in BC than Canadian boaters.

The friendly accommodation by the government is VERY appreciated.

Sounds like you respected the temporary rules and skedaddled through quickly, so a BIG thanks goes back to you