Milton

This one doesn't look good.

Here we go again!

Greetings,
Mr. J. I agree. We're in FLL AND in the water so possibly won't get a direct hit AND hopefully it loses some strength over land...I'm also watching Leslie, still mid Atlantic, which might follow Kirk and bend northwards. Yep. She's starting, for sure...

(I thought the thread was about John Milton, Paradise Lost.)

kthoennes said:

(I thought the thread was about John Milton, Paradise Lost.)

Click to expand...

Which reminds me, rather strangely, Do you still have that first edition The Great Gatsby?

kthoennes said:

(I thought the thread was about John Milton, Paradise Lost.)

Click to expand...

If you live in the southeast you may feel like Paradise Lost after Helene,

I live down here but I don't own down here...or anywhere. Bad weather coming or a disaster area...no big deal, just move on.

While I am not a Native American I have a soul that believes that living on the land but not owning it is the way to go. Water has its merits too for being mobile.... as I did that for around 17 years.

Greetings,
Mr. ps. A good attitude to have.

Jeez...all the tracks lead right to my front door.....

Barking Sands said:

Jeez...all the tracks lead right to my front door.....

Click to expand...

If I recall correctly you keep your boat on Florida's west coast somewhere just north of Clearwater - Tarpon Springs, maybe?

Non-Floridians, take a look at the Hurricane Center's forecast track as of tonight and you'll see that Barking Sands' location is roughly in the middle of a warning cone that spans the coast from near Carrabelle in the panhandle to Marco Island, on the border of the Everglades. That's roughly 300 miles of coastline. Landfall of Hurricane Milton's eye will occur Wednesday evening somewhere between those two points. But keep in mind that the storm's damaging winds and flooding will be felt far outside the eye, so - the hurricane's threat extends from the Florida Keys to the Florida panhandle.

Barking Sands has two choices - stay or run. If he stays, he'll do everything in his power to make his boat secure in the most sheltered location available to him. But because he's in the middle of the target zone, some might be tempted to drop lines and try to flee, which boaters from other parts of the U.S. and around the world seem to think ought to be a viable option. It isn't.

Not only would that decision be difficult, but even now, early on Sunday morning, he has virtually no time left to make that choice. With landfall predicted Wednesday evening, he would need to arrange for an alternative berth or mooring, get underway at his best speed, reach his presumably "safe" destination, and re-secure his boat in an unfamiliar harbor by Tuesday evening at the very latest. Conditions will be beginning to deteriorate that night, and no one should be out on the Gulf on Wednesday. If he's already topped-off with fuel and supplies, and has no other obligations for the remaining days leading up to the hurricane's arrival, he could get somewhere - if he acts today and if nothing goes wrong.

The next question is, which way to run? Today (Sunday) is decision day, but all the information available today to go into that decision can only suggest that one direction would probably end up being safer than the other, but nothing can tell him which direction is safer. At this point, it's a crapshoot. In other words, the risks of trying to reposition are unacceptable.

Been there myself, more than a few times, and so I totally get Barking Sands' stress level here. The news about this storm is barely 24 hours old, but already he, and thousands of boaters up and down the coast really have no choice remaining but to do their best to make their boats secure and then protect themselves, their homes and families.

Peace, strength and good luck to everyone in the path. As one of my old fishing buddies used to say, "I'd rather be lucky than good."

5am EDT forecast from NHC. Right now, Tarpon Springs (north of Clearwater Beach) would be on the "clean side" and would not see the same storm intensity as southern Pinellas County (Treasure Island, St Pete Beach, etc). Projected as Cat 3. Forecast track hasn't changed much since initially issued yesterday afternoon. Forecast track for Helene was uncharacteristically accurate so maybe NOAA is getting this right these days.

God speed.

Peter

Blissboat said:

Barking Sands has two choices - stay or run. If he stays, he'll do everything in his power to make his boat secure in the most sheltered location available to him. But because he's in the middle of the target zone, some might be tempted to drop lines and try to flee, which boaters from other parts of the U.S. and around the world seem to think ought to be a viable option. It isn't.

Not only would that decision be difficult, but even now, early on Sunday morning, he has virtually no time left to make that choice. With landfall predicted Wednesday evening, he would need to arrange for an alternative berth or mooring, get underway at his best speed, reach his presumably "safe" destination, and re-secure his boat in an unfamiliar harbor by Tuesday evening at the very latest. Conditions will be beginning to deteriorate that night, and no one should be out on the Gulf on Wednesday. If he's already topped-off with fuel and supplies, and has no other obligations for the remaining days leading up to the hurricane's arrival, he could get somewhere - if he acts today and if nothing goes wrong.

The next question is, which way to run? Today (Sunday) is decision day, but all the information available today to go into that decision can only suggest that one direction would probably end up being safer than the other, but nothing can tell him which direction is safer. At this point, it's a crapshoot. In other words, the risks of trying to reposition are unacceptable.

Been there myself, more than a few times, and so I totally get Barking Sands' stress level here. The news about this storm is barely 24 hours old, but already he, and thousands of boaters up and down the coast really have no choice remaining but to do their best to make their boats secure and then protect themselves, their homes and families.

Peace, strength and good luck to everyone in the path. As one of my old fishing buddies used to say, "I'd rather be lucky than good."

Click to expand...

As I mentioned in the Hurricane Helene thread, Monday is the morning to move from Fort Myers, up the Okeechobee waterway, to Moore Haven. If necessary, move Tuesday to Stuart.

Ted

The real reason to move when a cane approaches is to get to a better location for protection. Whether it's an improvement from storm surge or protection from wind (hopefully both). The trick is to have several locations already picked out long before the storm. If none are around, or likely to be so crowded the protections are offset, then no reason to move.....exept.....

But with an ability (forecasts and reading deeply) to make a calculated decision that allows one to just distance themselves from the destructive side of the storm and/or get at least outside the circle of hurricane force winds...that's is a pretty good option even without a "hurricane hole" picked out.

In this case, the lesser side of this hurricane is an area that was just pretty well destroyed....unfortunate.... but would be my reason to not head that way. Heading East through the Okeechobee would be the best way to avoid hurricane force winds and if you turned south and went another 100 miles, you could probably miss the strongest of the storm force winds to.

In decades of watching canes hit the Gulf Coast of Florida, it was one reason why I would never stay there for more than a temporary visit during hurricane season. Even my son switched to the East coast when deciding to buy a vacation home..... after several conversations with me, several visits to both and a little research.

Blissboat said:

If I recall correctly you keep your boat on Florida's west coast somewhere just north of Clearwater - Tarpon Springs

Peace, strength and good luck to everyone in the path. As one of my old fishing buddies used to say, "I'd rather be lucky than good."

Click to expand...

Perfectly laid out. And it can be even worse when storms slide up this coast from the south along the shore.

In my case, having just gone through a 9 foot surge and been fine, I am staying put. I am at Anclote Isles Marina up the anclote River and then tucked into a cove with a very narrow entrance. The fixed docks are older, but sturdy and are never subjected to any wave action. So it's just a matter of setting the lines in such a way that you don't bang pilings but give leeway for surge rise. I probably could have been fine with up to 12 foot surge. And after being lucky enough to closely observe my line settings on the last hurricane, I have implemented a plan to allow for another 3 or 4 feet. I feel luck to have had a " practice run".

It doesn't appear at this time this storm it will be close to that In regards to surge. Pending changes of course.

Biggest issue is that just 4 days ago I put all my bimini's and shades back up..

Looks like a new path a touch south. Landfall at Sarasota headed nor'east for just north of Patrick Space Force Base.

Port Charlotte to Ft Meyers area looks bad with much of the dangerous semi-circle and storm surge if it gets up to a CAT 3.

Brother lives in Nokomis 700 ft from the Gulf, last week he arrived from NY for the winter season,

He's not happy trying to find a safe place to park his new Lucid Air EV, He is leaving for our sisters in Hilton Head, and I said to take the $100,000 car, He's turning 80 and getting timid, his car is rated with the most miles per charge over 400.

I told him to park it in the street, which would flood get a new one from ins.

Nokomis is just south of Sarasota

jjjj said:

Brother lives in Nokomis 700 ft from the Gulf, last week he arrived from NY for the winter season,

He's not happy trying to find a safe place to park his new Lucid Air EV, He is leaving for our sisters in Hilton Head, and I said to take the $100,000 car, He's turning 80 and getting timid, his car is rated with the most miles per charge over 400.

I told him to park it in the street, which would flood get a new one from ins.

Nokomis is just south of Sarasota

Click to expand...

If he wants to bring it to the other side of the state, I know a good place (cat 5 facility rated parking garage) in the palm beach area and no cost/questions will be asked.

jjjj said:

Brother lives in Nokomis 700 ft from the Gulf, last week he arrived from NY for the winter season,

He's not happy trying to find a safe place to park his new Lucid Air EV, He is leaving for our sisters in Hilton Head, and I said to take the $100,000 car, He's turning 80 and getting timid, his car is rated with the most miles per charge over 400.

I told him to park it in the street, which would flood get a new one from ins.

Nokomis is just south of Sarasota

Click to expand...

The serious simple answer is to go to the Tampa Airport and park the car in short term parking on the second or above level away from the exterior rows. In Fort Myers it's $25 per day, cheap insurance.

Ted

8pm NHC update shows forecast track has landfall just south of Sarasota on Wednesday midday. Better news to folks in the Tampa Bay area, bad news for those just south in Sarasota/Venice area as far down as Fr Myers.

We moved to Florida 20 years ago from San Francisco. My wife says she much prefers threat of earthquake over hurricane because the slow notice you get where you watch the projected path develop over days. I've heard it likened to bring stalled by a homicidal turtle.

Stay safe out there.

Peter

Yeah. I've enjoyed all the earthquakes so far and hope no hurricanes are in my future.

I don't know how you folks in Fl deal with this. Every boating area has challenges but it seems Florida is never going to be a place to safely keep a boat and get reasonable insurance.

What is the approx cost to insure a $150-200k boat there assuming a well qualified owner?
I think here in California it could range from $1300-$3,000. Slip rates are in the $20-$25/ft but of course that can vary based upon location and amenities. Up in the Delta it can be $5-$12.

We can get winds and heavy rains at times but are spoiled otherwise. But our cruising is not nearly as nice as most of the east coast. The exception is PNW and Alaska but they have to deal with bugs and sub zero weather.

Wishing you all the best with the coming storm(s) and hoping pattern change for the better.

Anyone else in Placida area?

READY said:

.. and hoping pattern change for the better.

Click to expand...

The sad part of hoping for track shift is it's a zero sum game: what's good for me comes at the expense of someone else being in harms way.

Right now, forecast of landfall near Sarasota is holding. I assume their coastal areas look like mine in Madeira Beach - there are tons of debris from Helene piled everywhere. Will be interesting to see what +100 mph winds do with it....plus surge waters (many slab-on-grade homes and businesses had 3-4 feet of water inside).

2am ET NHC update attached.

Peter

The 5am forecast changed just a tad. It seems to have left the landfall and exit points nearly the same but the 1 AM Thursday waypoint moved North a bit. It also forecasted a little lower intensity forecast once at the shoreline and dwindling rapidly towards a low CAT 1 hurricane as it crosses the middle of the state.

While not much comfort the the FL West coasters, it may spare the inlanders and some East coasters from wind/surf damage.

READY said:

I don't know how you folks in Fl deal with this. Every boating area has challenges but it seems Florida is never going to be a place to safely keep a boat and get reasonable insurance.

What is the approx cost to insure a $150-200k boat there assuming a well qualified owner?
I think here in California it could range from $1300-$3,000. Slip rates are in the $20-$25/ft but of course that can vary based upon location and amenities. Up in the Delta it can be $5-$12.

We can get winds and heavy rains at times but are spoiled otherwise. But our cruising is not nearly as nice as most of the east coast. The exception is PNW and Alaska but they have to deal with bugs and sub zero weather.

Wishing you all the best with the coming storm(s) and hoping pattern change for the better.

Click to expand...

The best way to have a boat in FL is what a major chunk of insurance companies have said for at least the last decade/longer. If you want insurance, get the boat out of FL during hurricane season.

I admit that unless you get your boat far enough south into the trade winds.... FL is kinda miserable place for cruising in the dead of summer anyhow. I didn't mind it as much when I was much younger...but now... it seems to affect me more.

It seems to me if you have a bigger boat capable of serious cruising, a spring and fall cruise to a decent, protected yard somewhere along the East Coast further north seem to fit like a glove. Good time for it's annual haul.

The 5am advisory is attached. Milton is still in it's "wobble" phase where it's building directional momentum. The forecast landfall hasn't moved much (a tad north of Sarasota now) but timing has - now late night Wednesday vs midday. I would not be surprised if the forecast landfall changes a fair amount once Milton gets moving.

Surge prediction is also attached - showing roughly somewhat worse compared to Helene. Tampa and Tampa Bay are forecast to be hit much harder.

Peter

I live in New Port Richey which is just north of Tarpon Springs. We just made plans and reservations to take our travel trailer north about 150 miles. We should again be out of the surge zone at home, but with the wind prediction i think we’ll just bug out a few days. If the house gets damaged we’ll have someplace to live.
Best of luck to everyone!!

jleonard said:

I live in New Port Richey which is just north of Tarpon Springs. We just made plans and reservations to take our travel trailer north about 150 miles. We should again be out of the surge zone at home, but with the wind prediction i think we’ll just bug out a few days. If the house gets damaged we’ll have someplace to live.
Best of luck to everyone!!

Click to expand...

Good plan, Jay. Safe traveling and good luck.

jleonard said:

I live in New Port Richey which is just north of Tarpon Springs. We just made plans and reservations to take our travel trailer north about 150 miles. We should again be out of the surge zone at home, but with the wind prediction i think we’ll just bug out a few days. If the house gets damaged we’ll have someplace to live.
Best of luck to everyone!!

Click to expand...

Glad you got a reservation...just last week we had a reservation in Jennings, FL which is about 150 miles north (just south of Valdosta, GA.

When we arrived, it was closed and looked like a bomb went off. We had to drive to Ocala before getting a place to stay

Good plan and stay safe!

PS....if you made internet reservations not by phone... I would double check...that's how we got misled. Even sent me automated follow up email and texts saying "Welcome" the morning we were supposed to stay there.

AlaskaProf said:

Which reminds me, rather strangely, Do you still have that first edition The Great Gatsby?

Click to expand...

So we beat on, boats against the current..." Boy you have a good memory. And a 1st Ed of Farewell to Arms now. Not worth as much as you'd think though. Funny, when we bought our boat and sailed it along Long Island's north shore, I wished I had that edition of GG with me, just for literary sentimental purposes.

Coincidentally we're getting off a cruise ship in Miami at the moment. All our cat and hobie sailing excursions were canceled, bad weather and rain. We're on the other side of course (Bahamas) but glad we're heading home. See you later Milton.