Milton

[Jeff F]

TROPICAL STORM MILTON

This one doesn't look good.

 

[High Wire]

Here we go again!

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. J. I agree. We're in FLL AND in the water so possibly won't get a direct hit AND hopefully it loses some strength over land...I'm also watching Leslie, still mid Atlantic, which might follow Kirk and bend northwards. Yep. She's starting, for sure...

 

[kthoennes]

(I thought the thread was about John Milton, Paradise Lost.)

 

[AlaskaProf]

(I thought the thread was about John Milton, Paradise Lost.)

Which reminds me, rather strangely, Do you still have that first edition The Great Gatsby?

 

[Comodave]

(I thought the thread was about John Milton, Paradise Lost.)

If you live in the southeast you may feel like Paradise Lost after Helene,

 

[psneeld]

I live down here but I don't own down here...or anywhere. Bad weather coming or a disaster area...no big deal, just move on.

While I am not a Native American I have a soul that believes that living on the land but not owning it is the way to go. Water has its merits too for being mobile.... as I did that for around 17 years.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. ps. A good attitude to have.

 

[Barking Sands]

Jeez...all the tracks lead right to my front door.....

 

[Blissboat]

Jeez...all the tracks lead right to my front door.....

If I recall correctly you keep your boat on Florida's west coast somewhere just north of Clearwater - Tarpon Springs, maybe?

Non-Floridians, take a look at the Hurricane Center's forecast track as of tonight and you'll see that Barking Sands' location is roughly in the middle of a warning cone that spans the coast from near Carrabelle in the panhandle to Marco Island, on the border of the Everglades. That's roughly 300 miles of coastline. Landfall of Hurricane Milton's eye will occur Wednesday evening somewhere between those two points. But keep in mind that the storm's damaging winds and flooding will be felt far outside the eye, so - the hurricane's threat extends from the Florida Keys to the Florida panhandle.

Barking Sands has two choices - stay or run. If he stays, he'll do everything in his power to make his boat secure in the most sheltered location available to him. But because he's in the middle of the target zone, some might be tempted to drop lines and try to flee, which boaters from other parts of the U.S. and around the world seem to think ought to be a viable option. It isn't.

Not only would that decision be difficult, but even now, early on Sunday morning, he has virtually no time left to make that choice. With landfall predicted Wednesday evening, he would need to arrange for an alternative berth or mooring, get underway at his best speed, reach his presumably "safe" destination, and re-secure his boat in an unfamiliar harbor by Tuesday evening at the very latest. Conditions will be beginning to deteriorate that night, and no one should be out on the Gulf on Wednesday. If he's already topped-off with fuel and supplies, and has no other obligations for the remaining days leading up to the hurricane's arrival, he could get somewhere - if he acts today and if nothing goes wrong.

The next question is, which way to run? Today (Sunday) is decision day, but all the information available today to go into that decision can only suggest that one direction would probably end up being safer than the other, but nothing can tell him which direction is safer. At this point, it's a crapshoot. In other words, the risks of trying to reposition are unacceptable.

Been there myself, more than a few times, and so I totally get Barking Sands' stress level here. The news about this storm is barely 24 hours old, but already he, and thousands of boaters up and down the coast really have no choice remaining but to do their best to make their boats secure and then protect themselves, their homes and families.

Peace, strength and good luck to everyone in the path. As one of my old fishing buddies used to say, "I'd rather be lucky than good."

 

[mvweebles]

5am EDT forecast from NHC. Right now, Tarpon Springs (north of Clearwater Beach) would be on the "clean side" and would not see the same storm intensity as southern Pinellas County (Treasure Island, St Pete Beach, etc). Projected as Cat 3. Forecast track hasn't changed much since initially issued yesterday afternoon. Forecast track for Helene was uncharacteristically accurate so maybe NOAA is getting this right these days.

God speed.

Peter

 

[O C Diver]

Barking Sands has two choices - stay or run. If he stays, he'll do everything in his power to make his boat secure in the most sheltered location available to him. But because he's in the middle of the target zone, some might be tempted to drop lines and try to flee, which boaters from other parts of the U.S. and around the world seem to think ought to be a viable option. It isn't.

Not only would that decision be difficult, but even now, early on Sunday morning, he has virtually no time left to make that choice. With landfall predicted Wednesday evening, he would need to arrange for an alternative berth or mooring, get underway at his best speed, reach his presumably "safe" destination, and re-secure his boat in an unfamiliar harbor by Tuesday evening at the very latest. Conditions will be beginning to deteriorate that night, and no one should be out on the Gulf on Wednesday. If he's already topped-off with fuel and supplies, and has no other obligations for the remaining days leading up to the hurricane's arrival, he could get somewhere - if he acts today and if nothing goes wrong.

The next question is, which way to run? Today (Sunday) is decision day, but all the information available today to go into that decision can only suggest that one direction would probably end up being safer than the other, but nothing can tell him which direction is safer. At this point, it's a crapshoot. In other words, the risks of trying to reposition are unacceptable.

Been there myself, more than a few times, and so I totally get Barking Sands' stress level here. The news about this storm is barely 24 hours old, but already he, and thousands of boaters up and down the coast really have no choice remaining but to do their best to make their boats secure and then protect themselves, their homes and families.

Peace, strength and good luck to everyone in the path. As one of my old fishing buddies used to say, "I'd rather be lucky than good."

As I mentioned in the Hurricane Helene thread, Monday is the morning to move from Fort Myers, up the Okeechobee waterway, to Moore Haven. If necessary, move Tuesday to Stuart.

Ted

 

[psneeld]

The real reason to move when a cane approaches is to get to a better location for protection. Whether it's an improvement from storm surge or protection from wind (hopefully both). The trick is to have several locations already picked out long before the storm. If none are around, or likely to be so crowded the protections are offset, then no reason to move.....exept.....

But with an ability (forecasts and reading deeply) to make a calculated decision that allows one to just distance themselves from the destructive side of the storm and/or get at least outside the circle of hurricane force winds...that's is a pretty good option even without a "hurricane hole" picked out.

In this case, the lesser side of this hurricane is an area that was just pretty well destroyed....unfortunate.... but would be my reason to not head that way. Heading East through the Okeechobee would be the best way to avoid hurricane force winds and if you turned south and went another 100 miles, you could probably miss the strongest of the storm force winds to.

In decades of watching canes hit the Gulf Coast of Florida, it was one reason why I would never stay there for more than a temporary visit during hurricane season. Even my son switched to the East coast when deciding to buy a vacation home..... after several conversations with me, several visits to both and a little research.

 

[Barking Sands]

If I recall correctly you keep your boat on Florida's west coast somewhere just north of Clearwater - Tarpon Springs

Peace, strength and good luck to everyone in the path. As one of my old fishing buddies used to say, "I'd rather be lucky than good."

Perfectly laid out. And it can be even worse when storms slide up this coast from the south along the shore.

In my case, having just gone through a 9 foot surge and been fine, I am staying put. I am at Anclote Isles Marina up the anclote River and then tucked into a cove with a very narrow entrance. The fixed docks are older, but sturdy and are never subjected to any wave action. So it's just a matter of setting the lines in such a way that you don't bang pilings but give leeway for surge rise. I probably could have been fine with up to 12 foot surge. And after being lucky enough to closely observe my line settings on the last hurricane, I have implemented a plan to allow for another 3 or 4 feet. I feel luck to have had a " practice run".

It doesn't appear at this time this storm it will be close to that In regards to surge. Pending changes of course.

Biggest issue is that just 4 days ago I put all my bimini's and shades back up..