Big sailboat sunk by tornado

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Very much appreciate Chris Freer comments he adds significantly to my comments and understanding of the possibilities. Importantly in that post it was said the Bayesian could survive flooding of two compartments. Its sinking implies a third was flooded. As said await forensic analysis.
The engineer report concerning the sliding glass doors is concerning as water ingress into the saloon would not be actively dewatered from that space.
 
Presumably the surviving crew could state unequivocally whether the keel was up or down, whether the aft garage door was open or closed, and whether the side toy door was open or closed. And they should be able to say exactly what attitude the ship took from the weather, and where the water flooded in. They were there, after all.

Since we haven't heard a peep out of anyone, I'm guessing they were all told to say nothing to anyone
 
Having just read the reports of 3 experts and their opinions that it was basically a freak accident, I will wait for a thorough investigation of the incident and it release in detail if that is done.

Hopefully it will review the boat's design, construction and operating guidelines and were there any steps that could have averted the tragedy and was that information available to the captain/crew.

Link to 3 experts, one refered to in link 61

loosecannon.substack.com

Yacht Design Experts Dissect How an 'Act of God' Sank Bayesian

Chris Freer, Tad Roberts, Roger Long
loosecannon.substack.com loosecannon.substack.com
 
Hippocampus said:
Absent are structural watertight bulkheads pierced by watertight doors as you would see in military vessels and some explorer yachts. This makes getting to a rigid structure more difficult. It further makes loss of integrity of all house piercings (glass, doors, etc.) more likely .
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The builder said she had 4 watertight compartments and could survive the flooding of 2 of them.
 
Yes I noted that in my earlier post. Also posted information suggesting it could not survive flooding of a third according to N.A. Freer. Further noted where the water resided may have been important. If watertight compartments are below living spaces intact and the higher living spaces are flooded one could envision a negative impact on stability.
 
My guess is that it will be the epitome of the Swiss cheese model.
 
Spy.... I wonder how many know about the Swiss cheese model?

Last time I mentioned it, zero comments....but you still always hear about the "accident chain" model.

Maybe the builder is using "unsinkable" keeping in mind to follow a couple simple operational rules. Not saying it is totally realistic, but could be framing it that way in that statement.
 
psneeld said:
Spy.... I wonder how many know about the Swiss cheese model?

Last time I mentioned it, zero comments....but you still always hear about the "accident chain" model.

Maybe the builder is using "unsinkable" keeping in mind to follow a couple simple operational rules. Not saying it is totally realistic, but could be framing it that way in that statement.
Click to expand...
The Titanic also claimed to be unsinkable!
 
Something mentioned tangentially but critically import is how the people reacted.
Would think their reaction possible contributed to either their death or survival.
Event occurred at night.
At some point it’s likely lighting failed.
We don’t know the prior experience of the people. Particularly if they were ever in a knock down before or near knock down in the past or have any naval training.
We don’t know if a safety briefing was done for the passengers.
We don’t know how rapidly the vessel listed to starboard.
We don’t know the fitness or health of the victims.

I’ve been in knockdowns in sailing dinghies and one in a cruising boat. In the dinghies you’re outside to begin with and it’s daytime. You’re racing and alert. You have other boats actively watching you so have immediate assistance.

In a cruising boat or ship you need to know the first order of business is get outside and with other people. Need to start doing what you can to induce recovery. That may mean clearing self tailers , cutting lines if necessary, cutting stays, throwing things overboard etc. but if the boat is on its side you’re likely safer outside. So you need to know the fastest way outside and be able to get there.
Seems deaths here were weighted to passengers and cook. All asleep and below. Moving on a vessel on its side or let alone at high slant is a big piece of work. Layout suggests they would also need to negotiate doors and passageways. Or have hatches overhead out of water they could reach. Finally be levelheaded enough to plan and execute their escape. A huge ask. Actually made worse by the size of this vessel and I assume large spaces and high overheads. In my limited experience with a small cruiser during daylight but asleep I woke up disoriented. I sprained my wrist slightly falling out of berth. The knock down was quick but not violent from what I was told. Here was no water inside the boat except a wee bit that came up into a head through the freshwater vent. I was in my early 30s but somewhat seasoned. Everyone else was on deck sailing the boat. Other than the knockdown conditions were modest. A totally different experience than these folks faced. Mine was trivial in demands upon me. Theirs was massive in my view.

I’m disappointed in the Perini group CEO comments. Design and execution is his companies responsibility. His company’s employees and designers are suppose to deliver a vessel that will safely perform and keep people alive in the cruising grounds the vessel is expected to cruise. Even in ‘08 the med has been know to have periods of serious weather as well as waterspout, Tstorms, microbursts and rogues. Its expected passengers will not be trained professional crew. Its expected people will sleep and commonly at night when at anchor.
As stated the forensics will tell. Think the personal lawyers of the estates of those lost will be involved beyond the forensic analysis and directly involved parties. So think we are at risk of long delay before the analysis is released and how much the public will see. But think a principal party already mouthing off to protect his interest when lives were lost is unconscionable.
 
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Nick F said:
The Titanic also claimed to be unsinkable!
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The owner (or some company bigwig) and the captain neither of which followed the preferred methods in the maritime industry, trying to prove a point....much like the Concordia and paid the price.

I know that no piece of manmade kit is indestructible, but you do have to follow a few rules (whatever) to make designers claims true.
 
In reply to Hippo #70, the UK investigations are always made available on the internet, which is good.
 
Wow. I'm really surprised. Sort of the opposite of what I was expecting:
Announcing the probe, prosecutor Ambrogio Cartosio said investigators found it was not the weather that caused the ship to sink, but was a result of the behavior of the crew and the way the boat was handled.
Click to expand...
 
Benthic2 said:
Not much new info, other than the Italian Authorities are opening a manslaughter investigation.

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That is pretty standard in Italy. If someone dies in an accident someone always has to be guilty, so they will start looking for the 'culprit'. So this also applies to car accidents, bicycle, work, whatever, if someone dies there will be a criminal investigation.
In some countries it is even to the point where you will go to jail for 2 years if someone died in a car accident (in which you were involved) even when it was their own mistake. Same goes for work related deaths.
 
Just as side information for those not familiar with Italian law. The accident happened in Sicily, otherwise known as Mafia country. Basically you can buy whatever verdict you want, that is pretty standard in the south of Italy. I lived in the north of Italy for about 8 years, it is quite different there, but also there verdicts can be bought. Large companies simply pay to either have the court case buried (meaning it will take 30 years to get a verdict) or to have a favorable decision.
However, in this case we have the British Accident Investigation Board also looking into this accident, so am kind of curious if we are going to see 2 different conclusions.
As I have stated in another post, it is pretty normal in the southern Med that people need to go to jail if someone died in an accident, even when it was their own mistake or when it was a result of, in this case, a freak storm.
So when we start hearing news about this accident just keep that in mind when you read the info.

As for this vessel, the current owner was not the person who commissioned the boat. The boat was bought by this owner in 2013 and normally you then don't deal with the yard anymore regarding design issues. I know that the yacht has had the rigging worked on 3 times for the last owner. It also had an extensive refit, but not sure which yard did that job.

As for finding your way in the dark, when you were deep asleep and suddenly thrown out of bed, now lying on the side of the boat, with furniture etc falling on top of you, trying to find a door which is now 7 or 8 meter up in the air and you have no way how to get there (if you know where the door is, since you can't see it), with water rushing in the boat ? Good luck
 
No proof yet the incident was solely because of the storm.

But I did wonder whether the influence of a major builder in Italy had any juice, with or without offering money, on how this may go.

And I don't know much about boating outside of the US, but when you get in those circles of boating with high costs and limited production, there is often contact back with the manufacturer. Heck, many second and beyond owners go back to the manufacturer for updates/remodeling. Can't imagine this boat was any different.

While true the average person probably couldn't have escaped their stateroom in those kind of conditions, that is exactly what the builder didn't understand why when severe weather was forecast and eventually struck, the passengers weren't alerted and in the "emergency area" which may have been closer to suitable exits. Probably why more than just an accident investigation has been started, whether on the up and up or because of a shaky legal system.
 
psneeld said:
While true the average person probably couldn't have escaped their stateroom in those kind of conditions, that is exactly what the builder didn't understand why when severe weather was forecast and eventually struck, the passengers weren't alerted and in the "emergency area" which may have been closer to suitable exits. Probably why more than just an accident investigation has been started, whether on the up and up or because of a shaky legal system.
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According to Italian fishermen this storm was not a storm that lasted all night. It was just a thunderstorm passing by. One of the witnesses was just about to go to sea when the storm hit, so he decided to wait until the storm passed, which according to him took about 10 min. Then he went to sea.
If this storm had been raging all night with 50 kts of wind I am pretty sure he would have stayed in port.

Could the captain expect a water spout to suddenly hit the boat ? I think the answer is no.
The thunderstorm was accompanied by strong winds and lots of lightning, which means you don't want anyone sitting outside on the deck in that case. Maybe have them in the salon, but since this vessel has been through thunderstorms before, like everyone of us has been in thunderstorms during our time on the water, I am sure all the crew expected the storm to just pass by and life would go back to normal.

We don't know where the victims were found. Maybe they were awake, getting dressed, about to go to the salon when the water spout hit ? Who knows ? But indeed, maybe they were still asleep, that is also possible. Maybe the owner had told the captain not to be disturbed under no circumstance since he had something important to do the next day, who knows ?

What I did find is this article and it is true that extreme weather is getting more and more 'normal' in the Med. And with the immense fleets of charter boats (in all sizes) and not enough space in ports, it is just a matter of time before another accident happens.
www.wired.com

Bayesian Yacht Sinking: Climate Change Created Perfect Storm for Waterspouts

While the exact cause of the deadly sinking of the Bayesian superyacht remains unknown, dangerous waterspouts were spotted in the area. Scientists say they may become far more common.
www.wired.com www.wired.com
 
I guess if one believes the scanty and historically proven error in eye witness accounts to incidents then I guess we can suppose anything.

I take the middle ground and don't believe much until the incident is pieced together by experts in doing that sort of thing.

I remember reading this back in post #50..... typically what I believe in till there is hard evidence.

"That said I think we should stop speculating. Let's just simply wait what the accident investigation board is going to conclude. It is basically the same as in an aircraft accident, no need to do their work in a forum.
I guess the preliminary report will arrive in a month or so and the final report in about one to 2 years. Until that report comes in, all we do is speculating and although that could be fun, it is not really useful."
 
but...but....without speculation, the internet might wither and die ????

From the previously linked CNN article:
Announcing the probe, prosecutor Ambrogio Cartosio said investigators found it was not the weather that caused the ship to sink, but was a result of the behavior of the crew and the way the boat was handled.

There is currently interest in whether one of the tenders is missing. That may indicate one of the garage doors was open. Somewhere I read that the builder indicated it would be easy to tell if the garage doors were open at the time of the incident or were opened as a result of the incident

The prosecutor said they would be recovering the vessel. Newspeople had no idea how long that would take but it could be months.

As for the discrepancy in survival rate between passengers and crew one of the crew had stated that they were all up on deck securing and stowing things for the storm and all of a sudden they were in the water. It was at 4 am so all the passengers would have been sleeping below deck. Below multiple decks, actually. 5 of the 6 bodies found were in 1 cabin. Speculation is that was where the last air bubble was, or, since there was furniture on top of the bodies, they were forced there from water pressure.
So far everything I've brought up was said by far more knowledgable people than me. The following is entirely mine:
What if an uncontrolled release of the centerboard pulled the bottom of the boat open ? I think the keel is raised 17 feet and weighs 45 tons. That is A LOT of potential energy! If the lowering was controlled electronically and there was a power outage......
 
psneeld said:
While true the average person probably couldn't have escaped their stateroom in those kind of conditions, that is exactly what the builder didn't understand why when severe weather was forecast and eventually struck, the passengers weren't alerted and in the "emergency area" which may have been closer to suitable exits. Probably why more than just an accident investigation has been started, whether on the up and up or because of a shaky legal system.
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I'm just curious... how many people here would have read that forecast and then mustered everyone, had them put on life jackets, and stood ready for the boat to capsize and sink in a minute or two?

I wouldn't. I would make sure everything outside is secure, and be ready to start the engine to help hold station in heavy wind. The last thing I would even consider is that the boat will be blown over on its side and sink in the blink of an eye. I would consider that a zero likelyhood event. I'd be worried about dragging anchor, or someone dragging down on me. And I would NOT want people on deck, or otherwise in the way.

Is it just me....?
 
twistedtree said:
I'm just curious... how many people here would have read that forecast and then mustered everyone, had them put on life jackets, and stood ready for the boat to capsize and sink in a minute or two?

I wouldn't. I would make sure everything outside is secure, and be ready to start the engine to help hold station in heavy wind. The last thing I would even consider is that the boat will be blown over on its side and sink in the blink of an eye. I would consider that a zero likelyhood event. I'd be worried about dragging anchor, or someone dragging down on me. And I would NOT want people on deck, or otherwise in the way.

Is it just me....?
Click to expand...
I really don't know as there is so much info I don't know about this incident. I was just pointing out what the builder said which to me sounds extreme unless he had access to info I don't. He claimed to have access to some serious weather reports and knew the boat's layout. I am guessing he is paralleling tornado warnings where sirens alert people to head to shelters and the threat of tornados warrants people to gather in the salon "just in case". Maybe he is deflecting attention away from the boat for a reason.

Sounds extreme for a large vessel but I have no experience in vessels like that....lots in little and big ones, but not in that range.
 
I’m not going to try to paraphrase this but this is an interesting discussion of this by some folks who know about vessel design (I hope this link works), suggesting that the Bayesian had stability issues:

Substack discussion
 
Good info SD. I was reading on gCaptain that the mast and rigging had windage of 114 sq meters. Throw in some other stuff topsides and in very strong winds major heel would occur especially with the ballasted keel raised.
 
114 square meters while upright. As soon as the vessel heels that area diminishes to zero before 90 degrees of heel. The keel was still 45 tons with a big chunk of lead at 13 feet deep. That is a considerable righting moment!! The boat was designed to not need to lower the keel unless the sails were deployed.
 
Benthic2 said:
114 square meters while upright. As soon as the vessel heels that area diminishes to zero before 90 degrees of heel. The keel was still 45 tons with a big chunk of lead at 13 feet deep. That is a considerable righting moment!! The boat was designed to not need to lower the keel unless the sails were deployed.
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The Substack article said it had positive stability to 73 degrees. There’s still some windage even at 73 degrees, meaning in a hurricane force wind the point of no return is going to come before it reaches 73 degrees. If a door or window blew open, it might start rapidly taking on water well before 73 degrees.
 
But as it lists more the righting moment of the keel keeps increasing and the "wronging" moment of the mast decreases. Well before 73 degrees the hull is going to direct airflow up and over the mast reducing its tilting force completely. Theoretically the boat should only lean until a sufficient portion of its mast is in the wind shadow of the hull to make the keel the dominant force.
 
Benthic2 said:
But as it lists more the righting moment of the keel keeps increasing and the "wronging" moment of the mast decreases. Well before 73 degrees the hull is going to direct airflow up and over the mast reducing its tilting force completely. Theoretically the boat should only lean until a sufficient portion of its mast is in the wind shadow of the hull to make the keel the dominant force.
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B
The ballasted keel was not in play, more info is needed as too how much if any it was deployed. The link in post 84 has a very good NA saying 50 degrees was more likely the capsize point.
 
Benthic2 said:
But as it lists more the righting moment of the keel keeps increasing and the "wronging" moment of the mast decreases. Well before 73 degrees the hull is going to direct airflow up and over the mast reducing its tilting force completely. Theoretically the boat should only lean until a sufficient portion of its mast is in the wind shadow of the hull to make the keel the dominant force.
Click to expand...
One report I read said that it may have been a microburst instead of tornado/straight line winds so wind angle guesses could all be way off.
 
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