Pretty sure boat prices here have peaked. Much like real estate. People will be cutting back to be sure they can service mortgages as rates rise. Such a blunt instrument. In our last recession,housing loan rates hit 17%, now people whine at the possibility of 5-7%.
Lots of people are cashed up after the last 2-3 years, you couldn`t spend it. We`d have had 3 trips to Europe if it was safe and possible, that money has to be sitting somewhere.
When I tried to buy my first house, I could not afford the payment because the interest rates were 10-12%. Which was better than what my parents had gotten on their house at 18%.
It was unreal.
When I finally did buy a house, almost a decade later, I think the rate was 8% and I could not believe how lucky I was to get a rate that low. A family I knew who had bought a house in the 70's had a 6% rate. I never thought I would see rates that low, but eventually, I did a refinance and got a 6% rate.
On our current house, we just refinanced and pretty much got the lowest rate possible around 3.5%.
I just could not believe low the rates went. Last time I checked, a 30 year mortgage was around 5.6%.
The rates are going up quickly and have almost doubled in six months.
The rates have no where to go but up.
In real estate it is all location, location, and location. My area is a growth area due to jobs and companies moving to this part of the state. Manufacturing is coming back after being offshored, at least at some level, and high tech jobs, which have been a big part of the local economy, are expanding as more companies move to the area. Like many places, there is a shortage of workers at all levels.
The housing market here is insane simply because there is high demand as people move to the area for jobs. Areas in the local cities that were depressed at various levels, are bouncing back to a level I am not sure ever existed. Office buildings are causing apartments buildings to be built in the down town areas which is begetting restaurants, breweries, clubs, stores, etc. Some of this has been going on for decades but in the last five years or so, it has rapidly expanded.
The reality for many counties is an aging working force, which is now moving to retirement, and declining birth rates are lowering the number of people working. This is causing wage inflation and I really don't see it ending. This issue has been building for decades and is not going away unless robots really become functional. A recession would only put a dent in our local employment which impacts real estate prices. Even during the 2008 meltdown, while our local real estate prices were hit, it was nothing like other places.
The economy going forward is going to be unlike the past due to changing demographics, government energy policy that is leading to high prices in many areas of the economy, and in some places, power outages, not to mention the lingering affects the of the pandemic and the world wide impact of Putin's War. Food shortages and price increases are hitting us all and will really impact the poorer countries causing more angst. China is also having food production issues....
We were supposed to go to the NL in April of 2020. That obviously did not happen and I don't see us getting there until 2023. <sigh>
Later,
Dan
