Oliver & MV Weebles (Peter): I agree that I don't think we will be looking at bargain pricing on the best boats. But I think supply and demand will be restored back to some semblance of balance and boats that have been WAY overpriced (for a normal market) will come back to earth. The RV market will likely correct earlier as they tend to be easier to buy and sell than boats. But both are luxury items, fuel cost is a factor for those who are stretching a bit to afford a purchase and both turn out to cost a lot to operate and maintain.
There were so many people these last 2+ years that jumped into these with no experience and likely did not find what they expected over time. I had a friend who bought his first RV during the pandemic. Had to wait 7 months for a new delivery of a Class C on a sprinter chassis. About $150K. Made 1 trip and realized he hated driving it and much preferred simplicity of hotels. He is not hurting for money so it was not an economic decision. Sold it right back for about what he paid. He made this decision much earlier in the cycle. I fear those that might try to sell now will find the market much more competitive and facing the normal losses when you drive something off the lot (or move it from the dealer marina slip!!).
I don't have the luxury to buy new but when it comes to boats I am not sure I would do that even if I could. I know what money gets put into making a boat really useful and I would prefer to have someone else spend that money. My 1976 48' Hatteras is 4 slips away from a shiny new yacht (Broker owned, for sale). Mine has more room, more range, equally good genset and lithium setup, equally reliable, easier to service but far less beautiful and sexy. You could buy my boat for less than the 7.25 % California sales tax in year one on the new one! At $2.8Mil the market value will likely drop 20% after it is sold. Mine is at the bottom of the depreciation curve and while one rarely can sell for more than they have invested (cost plus improvements/repairs) it will hold the value fairly well as long as reasonably well maintained.
Some people who are very wealthy might care about this value decision but most won't. I am sure it would be nice to be in that situation, I just have not been there!
