Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

[slowgoesit]

All cruise ships are foreign manned except those on American rivers.

Here's one (and maybe only one) that isn't! She's US Flagged . . .



https://www.ncl.com/cruise-ship/pride-of-america

 

[Dougcole]

I'm with Pete. Good Riddance.


As I read through these posts I see very little to recommend the cruise ship industry as a viable business. When you consider what an environmental nightmare they are, then factor in the health risks, it seems to me we would be better off without them.


I'm sure in the '50s and '60s when the tobacco industry came under fire that there were plenty of people who cited all the jobs the industry created.

 

[firehoser75]

Just to be the devil's advocate , the cruise industry has huge economic spin offs as well. All kinds of jobs related to supply of consumables, supply of in port services, air travel, hotels, in port restaurants, and on and on. Many (maybe even most) other industries have "environmental impacts". Should we close them all and if so, what would you do with all the now, unemployed?? Raise your taxes to support them? Pleasure boating has "environmental impacts"!

Watch what you wish for, you may be just about to get it. In spades, but I hope not.
Just food for thought.

 

[CaptTom]

As I read through these posts I see very little to recommend the cruise ship industry as a viable business. When you consider what an environmental nightmare they are, then factor in the health risks, it seems to me we would be better off without them.

I'm sure in the '50s and '60s when the tobacco industry came under fire that there were plenty of people who cited all the jobs the industry created.

I'm actually a bit surprised at all the disdain. Sure, those mega-ships aren't ideal, but then again, I live in a beach town and won't go near the beach during the summer because of all the tourists packed in there. I'd rather go on a cruise ship.

I think it's fair to make that comparison. By any measure, the hoards of beach tourists are far worse than a cruise ship. More pollution (cars, air conditioning in old leaky cottages, etc.) Thousands of individual waste systems, some very outdated, compared to one modern system on a ship. More ecological damage to fragile wetlands, not to mention the beach itself. Beach-goers throw of trash in the ocean, feed french fries to the seagulls, and let their dogs disturb nesting shore birds. Then there's the unsightly blight of the built-up beach communities themselves.

Admittedly, the arrival of 3,000 passengers in a sleepy island town isn't great, either. But at least they go away at the end of the day.

 

[Raybo]

Coincidence?

I have read that the Covid-19 originated in Wuhan, China, where the only level 5 laboratory just happens to be. Coincidence?

 

[Woodland Hills]

I have read that the Covid-19 originated in Wuhan, China, where the only level 5 laboratory just happens to be. Coincidence?

Yes

 

[slowgoesit]

I have read that the Covid-19 originated in Wuhan, China, where the only level 5 laboratory just happens to be. Coincidence?

Just a matter of time . . . conspiracy theories abound. Please get it straight. Corvid-19 happened because a secret Chinese laboratory accidentally released a disease that originated in a crashed alien spacecraft!

 

[firehoser75]

Additional Info: At least one Cruise Line implements new policy (about 1 year ago) that will hurt the industry.
I just tried to cancel 2 back to back cruises we have booked in November (Caribbean). We have cruised many times before, and cancelled some on occasion. We have never experienced any issues in the past with any of the lines as long as you make changes a ways out from the departure date (usually 90 days out).
However, today, we were told that we could not receive a refund of our deposit as they have changed their policy. We will now lose $100 US each and will only receive the rest as a "future credit" on their cruise line (RCL). None of this was pointed out to us when we booked directly with the cruise line a few months ago. Plus, I thought it might be a cruise lines best interest to encourage passengers to book a ways ahead as opposed to "last minute".

Also, with the bad press they have received lately (especially concerning the Coronavirus) and the reduction in business, I would have thought they would be wanting happy (potentially future) customers.

So, my point is, buyer beware! I will not be using this line again even if this virus issue "goes away".

 

[AlanT]

Just to be the devil's advocate , the cruise industry has huge economic spin offs as well. All kinds of jobs related to supply of consumables, supply of in port services, air travel, hotels, in port restaurants, and on and on. Many (maybe even most) other industries have "environmental impacts". Should we close them all and if so, what would you do with all the now, unemployed?? Raise your taxes to support them? Pleasure boating has "environmental impacts"!

Watch what you wish for, you may be just about to get it. In spades, but I hope not.
Just food for thought.

I hear you, but having been around the cruise ships for many years while we were sailing the world on our boat I noticed several traits. I also took a cruise for my parents golden wedding anniversary (it was compulsory!). In my observation CS passengers tend to aggregate to tours etc that are pre-arranged by the CS operator. These are very low margin for the local businesses. They equally completely change the complexion of the locality of the ports of call leading to a plethora of cheap T shirt shops crappy trinkets, and oddly, high end jewelry & personal accessory stores that are inevitably international chains with exclusive arrangements with the CS operators. In other words the majority of the money does not stay on the Island. The majority of CS passengers are loath to spend much money ashore independently of the CS with the locally owned businesses, in restaurants, beaches, car rentals etc. perhaps because they feel they have already paid for food on board, so the pickings for the local businesses are not great, other than those businesses that grow up specifically to market to those tourists. I would guess that one tourist staying in a local hotel and eating in the local restaurants would spend 10X the amount of a typical CS visitor. Consequently I think it is better for the world that we have 10% of the tourists providing the income rather than 10X that number. Anecdotally I have heard that islands that have spent to install CS terminals have failed to reach the promoted ROI. ~A.

 

[markpierce]

I worry more about the closeness on a plane than a cruise liner ...... LOL

Me too. Stuffed together elbow-to-elbow, breathing recirculated air, shared toilet. A ship is more civilized: room to roam, a variety of internal destinations and entertainments, waited on hand-and-foot, and able to step outside to breathe fresh air.

On the Grand Princess, February 11, 2020:

 

[mcboatface]

Now this looks like fun. I wonder how many laps they have done? Now appears to be heading somewhere, perhaps to a military base for the testing as some of the media speculated earlier?

I can’t even begin to imagine life on this ship right now.

 

[BandB]

Now this looks like fun. I wonder how many laps they have done? Now appears to be heading somewhere, perhaps to a military base for the testing as some of the media speculated earlier?

I can’t even begin to imagine life on this ship right now.

View attachment 100180

They started with testing at sea. First results back. 21 of 46 tested were positive, so at this point they know they likely have a huge problem.

 

[BandB]

I failed to mention that 19 of the positive tests were crew members. Here's how I'd translate that now. Many crew members caught it from passengers on the previous trip. Now, probably a sizable number of passengers on this trip now have it, although most have not likely experienced symptoms yet.

 

[BruceK]

Where to quarantine 4-5000 people onshore? It`s getting beyond managing.

 

[MurrayM]

Where to quarantine 4-5000 people onshore? It`s getting beyond managing.

In Canada they were staying in military apartment complexes.

I've seen footage from China where they welded shut doors to apartment buildings while people slept. Works in China, probably not in the USA.

 

[mcboatface]

Media says the plan is to leave the 1,100 crew onboard. That still leaves a bunch of folks to quarantine somewhere for 14 days. The ship is heading into port, but no one, certainly not the passengers on board, have any idea what the plan is. Although, at this point, the word "plan" may be giving too much credit.

I just can't imagine learning about the test results onboard via televised press conference...

Meanwhile, passengers from the previous voyage aboard this same ship are being found to have the virus and they have been wandering around for two weeks.

 

[BruceK]

Hardly fair any uninfected crew have to suffer the Diamond Princess incubator effect. Poor Filipinos, Indonesians, and others, usually supporting immediate families back home.

We quarantined our extractions from Wuhan and Japan on Christmas Island and in an onshore mining camp not in use, but way less numbers than this.

People will be increasingly reluctant to set foot on these ships, no matter how cheap the fares become.

 

[mcboatface]

Man, this gets weirder by the minute. She was steaming at 17kts directly to the western inbound lane and just as she was about to enter the lane, she fell off to starboard and slowed to 12kts.

Someone having second thoughts?

 

[slowgoesit]

Me too. Stuffed together elbow-to-elbow, breathing recirculated air, shared toilet. A ship is more civilized: room to roam, a variety of internal destinations and entertainments, waited on hand-and-foot, and able to step outside to breathe fresh air.

On the Grand Princess, February 11, 2020:

Just a clarification: On a turbine (jet) or turbojet aircraft, which most commercial aircraft are, cabin air is supplied by bleed air off of the compressor section of the turbine engine to pressurize and heat the cabin air. The air is then vented overboard. The cabin air gets used ONCE and does NOT get recirculated. Also, it is extremely dry, which is NOT a very healthy environment for a virus.

On a cruise ship, moist air, continually recirculated among lord knows how many cabins, with who knows how many of the occupants symptomatic is a much more unhealthy atmosphere for passengers IMHO.

 

[OldDan1943]

I've seen footage from China where they welded shut doors to apartment buildings while people slept. Works in China, probably not in the USA.

Honey, come here, I need your help. I think the door is stuck.

 

[Woodland Hills]

Just a clarification: On a turbine (jet) or turbojet aircraft, which most commercial aircraft are, cabin air is supplied by bleed air off of the compressor section of the turbine engine to pressurize and heat the cabin air. The air is then vented overboard. The cabin air gets used ONCE and does NOT get recirculated. Also, it is extremely dry, which is NOT a very healthy environment for a virus.

On a cruise ship, moist air, continually recirculated among lord knows how many cabins, with who knows how many of the occupants symptomatic is a much more unhealthy atmosphere for passengers IMHO.

That’s how the system is designed to function, however, in order to maximize fuel economy the airlines have lowered the amount of bleed air that they pull from the cold section to the point that cabin air has stagnated. The turnover has been dramatically lowered and stale air is no longer being exchanged at the same rate.

 

[High Wire]

This CV-19 reminds me of the old Warner Bros cartoons with "flypaper" but in slow motion.

 

[High Wire]

Yep
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-123.5/centery:37.5/zoom:8

 

[BandB]

To the question as to the industry. Yes, they'll survive. Might see some bankruptcies and some suppliers destroyed, even crew not paid, tickets not refunded, boats foreclosed. But ultimately the industry survives even in the worst of situations.

Maybe for the other thread of one wanting to know if they should buy, just wait until some of the cruise ships are foreclosed and auctioned.

 

[Woodland Hills]

I wonder what will happen to the ships if the whole industry is permanently downsized? Repurposed as floating housing to beat sea level rise in coastal cities?

 

[OldDan1943]

I wonder what will happen to the ships if the whole industry is permanently downsized? Repurposed as floating housing to beat sea level rise in coastal cities?

Hmmmm, repurposed to troop carriers or govt cargo carriers or hospital ships?

 

[Woodland Hills]

I hope not troop ships, that would imply more foreign wars for our grandchildren to die in. I don’t want that.

Maybe they could blow out the walls of the small cabins and make bigger apartments. Realistically they probably will just be scrapped.

 

[Simi 60]

Of course it can, and will survive. Much to the chagrin of many T.F. members and contributors. A recent thread showed that many, if not most T.F. members hated everything about the cruise ship industry.

Today a news release states that nearly a thousand people have been exposed to the Corona virus on a Princess liner. Will this news and other recent bad news about the cruise industry "sink" the industry? Probably not, they simply have too much invested.

I'm sure there will be major changes in the industry though. Probably deep discounts, Laid up ships, new health provisions, changes in schedules, etc.

Would I get on a cruise ship today ? Not if you gave me a free ticket and held a gun to my head!!

pete

So explain to me how they survive if they have "too much invested" yet get no passengers so no cash/return/yield on that investment?

 

[Woodland Hills]

Another cruise ship denied entry, this time in Thailand. An Italian liner with 2000 aboard.

The question about this industry is are they too big to fail? Do they owe so much money to a few creditors that foreclosure would take the lender down too? That may be all that ends up saving them.

 

[O C Diver]

I think they may survive although in lesser numbers. As with many tragedies, there will likely be scrutiny, oversight, and new regulations. Less you think their survival isn't going to happen, one only has to look at the tobacco industry. A large consumer base with a short memory, and then there's the money...

Ted