Florida fishing teenagers missing.

[psneeld]

Hard to say what the actual surface current has been without the data from the USCG datum marker observations.

There was a lot of NE and Easterly winds earlier this week off northern Florida and Ga.....at least that's what a couple buoy reports indicated (pretty sure). That may have caused a surface current pushing towards the coast..but now it is SW I believe.

 

[ulysses]

psneeld: I am sure they have people looking at that data. You are capable of accessing the buoy data and historical data associated with any of the NOAA buoys on the NOAA Buoy data website.

dan

 

[psneeld]

psneeld: I am sure they have people looking at that data. You are capable of accessing the buoy data and historical data associated with any of the NOAA buoys on the NOAA Buoy data website.

dan

I did...the Gray's reef buoy off southern Georgia was the one I used....as far as the datum marker buoy info...I know the USCG was using it...just would like to know for the TF guestimations.

 

[ulysses]

Gray's reef buoy is a good one. The problem arises though that the Gulf Stream runs a pretty good ways offshore of Ga. and does get somewhat wider. I think that is what protects the Ga. coast from a lot of the Tropical Storms and Hurricanes it also keeps some of the many eyes that may be available nearer the coast from keeping an eye open for these boys.

dan

 

[what_barnacles]

The CG quits at sundown today. RIP kids.

 

[High Wire]

Back in 1996, Tom Capano attempted to sink the body of his victim Anne Marie Fahey in an Igloo cooler about 70 miles off the beach in a couple thousand feet of water.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Capano
The cooler wouldn't sink so he shot a hole in it with a shotgun. Still didn't sink so him and his brother wrapped her in 2 anchors and tossed the body. They let the cooler float away. It took almost a week before the cooler was found by local fishermen with a hole thru it.
My point is that there are a lot of fisherman in the Gulf Stream fishing this time of year up to the NC coast and the kids cooler should catch someones eye. Hopefully whoever finds it watches the news occasionally.

 

[tcpip95]

The CG quits at sundown today. RIP kids.

Just because the CG quits at sundown does not mean the kids are dead.

 

[psneeld]

Just because the CG quits at sundown does not mean the kids are dead.

Maybe not dead but not findable other than pure luck....

After about day 2...the search area became so huge finding them not with the boat would be a near miracle...after 7....well, we all want to believe in miracles.

Plus....it is only an assumption the boys went into the water and remained near the boat from the very beginning. It's really the only thing to run with in this case...but even that doubt expands the circle of uncertainty even bigger...multiply that over 7 days...the numbers become astronomical (well almost) but certainly unsearchable based on reason.

Thus the CGs decision to stop searching ....probably pending further developments.

Not fluffy... just the hard facts coming from someone involved in flying on and or planning thousands of searches.

 

[BruceK]

Floating Debris

On March 8 2014, the MH370 B777 is believed to have gone down in the Indian ocean. A few days ago, a B777 flaperon washed up on Reunion Island in the east of the Indian Ocean. Not yet identified as a part of the MH plane it is unlikely come from anything else.
Sadly, while there may yet be debris found from the boys boat, their recovery looks less likely. But I recall several years ago a man being found alive in a large floating polystyrene cooler after several weeks.It took a while for anyone to accept the truth of his story.

 

[psneeld]

On March 8 2014, the MH370 B777 is believed to have gone down in the Indian ocean. A few days ago, a B777 flaperon washed up on Reunion Island in the east of the Indian Ocean. Not yet identified as a part of the MH plane it is unlikely come from anything else.
Sadly, while there may yet be debris found from the boys boat, their recovery looks less likely. But I recall several years ago a man being found alive in a large floating polystyrene cooler after several weeks.It took a while for anyone to accept the truth of his story.

There are miracle survival stories all the time...but as I posted before...at some pojnt...where do you keep looking? And just plain statistically...it becomes grasping at straws.

The world's rescue organizations that are well funded and trained have it pretty well figured out after more than a couple centuries at it.

Can search and rescue be done better? More effective? Yes...I certainly think so and used to get frowned at when I thought the USCG wasnt taking SAR seriously enough. The Morning Dew incident cemented many of my complaints. But for now, with the resources available, if those boys had been alive, floating, capable of even splashing as a signal, they had a pretty good chance of being found.

 

[tcpip95]

I'm going to bed tonight and I'll be able to fall asleep. I'm sure the parents of the kids won't be able to. If I can help to ease their pain and anxiety in some way, I'm going to do it. If that means that I help to volunteer to search for the kids, or coolers, or life jackets, or anything that might help the parents survive this ordeal, then I'm going to do so. It may very well be too late at this time, and that it ceases to be a SAR mission and now transitions into a recovery mission, but I'm not going to let up hoping and doing what I can.

If I did that, I wouldn't be able to sleep.

 

[psneeld]

I'm going to bed tonight and I'll be able to fall asleep. I'm sure the parents of the kids won't be able to. If I can help to ease their pain and anxiety in some way, I'm going to do it. If that means that I help to volunteer to search for the kids, or coolers, or life jackets, or anything that might help the parents survive this ordeal, then I'm going to do so. It may very well be too late at this time, and that it ceases to be a SAR mission and now transitions into a recovery mission, but I'm not going to let up hoping and doing what I can.

If I did that, I wouldn't be able to sleep.

As long as no one is put in harms way....search forever.

But at somepoint, flying single engine aircraft out over the ocean with untrained aircrews in searching and survival, or small boats that can be caught in similar weather the boys may have been caught in.....the whole concept goes out the window if something bad happens. Now we have more grieving families.

I have seen it more than once.

The USCG learned a couple decades ago...killing more to save a few is a bad formula....and that is going after people still just in trouble. Continuing a search statistically impossible with less than the best in a dangerous environment isn't good risk management.

Recovery mission? Might want to rethink that one if you haven't ever been involved with deep water search and rescue....

Do what you must...but I can't in good faith recommend it. ....

 

[Off Duty]

I have to agree with psneeld on this last part.
The USCG, for whatever good or bad one may think of them overall, does a heck of a job at SAR with the resources available to them.


Having been one of those resources on several occasions, I'm satisfied that they've done all they can be reasonably expected to do at this point.


Will further efforts help?
Maybe.


But the reality of it, is that the kids bodies (or portions thereof) will eventually wash up ashore somewhere, or be found by a passing vessel.


Between the weather, time, the lack of supplies, and the sharks, that's usually how it ends up. God, I truly pray I'm wrong. I can't imagine what the parents are going through at this point.

 

[Off Duty]

I'm going to bed tonight and I'll be able to fall asleep. I'm sure the parents of the kids won't be able to. If I can help to ease their pain and anxiety in some way, I'm going to do it. If that means that I help to volunteer to search for the kids, or coolers, or life jackets, or anything that might help the parents survive this ordeal, then I'm going to do so. It may very well be too late at this time, and that it ceases to be a SAR mission and now transitions into a recovery mission, but I'm not going to let up hoping and doing what I can.

If I did that, I wouldn't be able to sleep.

You said a mouthful man! And as long as you're properly prepared (physically, psychologically, and equipment wise), go for it!

psneeld makes a good point about not placing others in danger trying to help. Being on the water at all can be dangerous, but proper planning and preparation, along with good old common sense, can lessen the chance that you'll end up a victim.


Having pulled a few bodies from the water in my career, I'll tell you it's not a pleasant sight. Being children makes it that much more difficult. I've seen grown men lose it afterward. Just be prepared for that should it happen.

Good luck to you and whomever you join in the effort

 

[Off Duty]

One last thing for now.
I did pull this off the weather.gov site.
It's the climate and weather conditions for the Palm Beach County Area on the 24th. While not a "marine" forecast, it might give you some idea of the conditions afloat.

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=mfl

According to my resources down there, they had charter boats coming in as the kids were going out, reporting that they were getting "beat up." And these were 40'ers and such.

As for the possibility of a engine cover coming off when the boat overturned, anything is possible. What I can say is, most of the engine covers I've seen in the last many years, all have pretty secure latches that have to be removed to remove the cover. Not real likely to just pop off.

Having been on the scene of several overturned vessels over the years, I've never seen one that came off unless there was significant speed involved (i.e.: stuffing the boat at speed, a roll over, etc.).

I would have to agree with the engine failure scenario in this case.
It would have caused the kids to remove the cover, and likely given rise to both of them being at the stern of the boat while DIW. From there wind and wave action could have been the cause of the overturning/swamping.

Then again, this is all speculation.

LE will not "close" the case.
They will inactivate it when they've run out of leads, but if anything pops up again, they'll reactivate it. If they're never found, the case will more than likely become another "cold case."

 

[psneeld]

In very deep water, sometimes bodies never return to the surface due to temperature....the sea is the final resting place.

That is what I meant by deep water search and rescue....the possibility of recovery is too horrible to think about at this point, horrible to witness...wouldn't wish it on anyone.

Again..... just the ugly truth of search and rescue and unfortunately.... recovery or not.

 

[tcpip95]

Not putting the Coasties down in any way, shape, or form. I am truly impressed with them, and I know that they busted butts to do everything that they could have. Am very grateful to them - especially for everything they did on this SAR.

I also completely understand the point of diminishing returns. I know and understand that we're there - probably past it.

I understand the dangers of what we're talking about here. I was a crew dog on RC-135 USAF reconnaissance planes. Our motto - we never left one up there.

I understand - and support the USCG making this inactive. And I'm trying very hard to not let emotions get in the way of common sense. It's tough on this one though.

I guess what's still driving me nuts on this is the fact that nothing has turned up - where's the big cooler and the 3 other life jackets? That keeps me wondering if the kids are on that stuff.

I can't give up just yet...

 

[Off Duty]

In very deep water, sometimes bodies never return to the surface due to temperature....the sea is the final resting place.

That is what I meant by deep water search and rescue....the possibility of recovery is too horrible to think about at this point, horrible to witness...wouldn't wish it on anyone.

Again..... just the ugly truth of search and rescue and unfortunately.... recovery or not.

Amen!

 

[psneeld]

Not putting the Coasties down in any way, shape, or form. I am truly impressed with them, and I know that they busted butts to do everything that they could have. Am very grateful to them - especially for everything they did on this SAR.

I also completely understand the point of diminishing returns. I know and understand that we're there - probably past it.

I understand the dangers of what we're talking about here. I was a crew dog on RC-135 USAF reconnaissance planes. Our motto - we never left one up there.

I understand - and support the USCG making this inactive. And I'm trying very hard to not let emotions get in the way of common sense. It's tough on this one though.

I guess what's still driving me nuts on this is the fact that nothing has turned up - where's the big cooler and the 3 other life jackets? That keeps me wondering if the kids are on that stuff.

I can't give up just yet...

the wind in a day can blow a cooler and life jackets 100 miles in a completely different direction the current is carrying humans and the boat.

The jackets could have been blown ashore days ago and picked up by people and nothing said. Same for a nice cooler.

Not everyone has the same smarts or morals as everyone else....and the location of these objects had no bearing on the search areas...just the length of survival time. Which was probably a few day less than searched...even with wearing jackets...which they probably werent.

 

[Ski in NC]

The cooler could have been picked up by a passing boat. And there could have been no sneakiness or bad intent on their part, it could be they simply did not know the significance of THAT cooler.

Most boaters know there are missing kids out there, but may not know that a Yeti 65 is key to the SAR effort.