Helene Hurricane Preparation Fort Myers, FL

[O C Diver]

As was discussed in other threads about losses from Hurricane Ian in the Fort Myers, FL area, today is the day to make your plan! The possibility of a tropical storm / Hurricane Helene is very likely with the possibility of it reaching the Fort Myers area starting Thursday.

If it were me, depending on tomorrow morning's forecast, I would be taking my boat tomorrow morning up the Okeechobee waterway to Moore Haven. I would likely tie up at the Moore Haven town docks for the night and decide whether to cross to Stuart, FL on Wednesday based on the forecast.

I no longer own my trawler, so it's not an issue, but waiting till tomorrow to plan and leaving on Wednesday could be a problem with congestion at the locks.

Hopefully this storm doesn't develop. Stay Safe!

Ted

 

[mvweebles]

Here is the National Hurricane Center storm tracker. It's a fast moving storm and is currently forecast to be well west of the central Florida gulf coast, though as Ted suggests, that can change quickly. RIght now, >90% likliehood of storm formation.

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Peter

 

[Larry M]

The 11 am EDT today.

 

[RT Firefly]

THIS is the one I'm more worried about. Yes, forecast is 7 days out BUT very early development unlike storms to date.

 

[CharlieO.]

Good luck you all, be safe

 

[Larry M]

Storm surge predictions.

 

[psneeld]

As of 0730 Tuesday, the storm is eithr barely developed or not. Wind sheer is still robbing the center of vertical development.

The very last words of all the major forecasters are "we still don't know a lot about the storm and it's development". They have a good idea...especially about the time of landfall, but not the exact location or intensification. Almost all info being put out is still "highly uncertain" based on models that begin with a good amount of uncertainty.

I am headed for Vicksburg, MS tonight along I-20, headed back to for Ft Pierce, FL. I don't know whether to beat the storm or follow it. Too soon to tell, maybe tomorrow will bring a bit more certainty to wise decisions.

 

[slowgoesit]

O C Diver,
If it were me, depending on tomorrow morning's forecast, I would be taking my boat tomorrow morning up the Okeechobee waterway to Moore Haven. I would likely tie up at the Moore Haven town docks for the night and decide whether to cross to Stuart, FL on Wednesday based on the forecast.

Ted, that's pretty much where WE are right now. Between Moore Haven and LaBelle, just off of the Caloosahatchee Canal. We'll doubling up the lines on the boats on the docks, but pretty much figure that for us, this will be a non-event.

 

[O C Diver]

O C Diver,
If it were me, depending on tomorrow morning's forecast, I would be taking my boat tomorrow morning up the Okeechobee waterway to Moore Haven. I would likely tie up at the Moore Haven town docks for the night and decide whether to cross to Stuart, FL on Wednesday based on the forecast.

Ted, that's pretty much where WE are right now. Between Moore Haven and LaBelle, just off of the Caloosahatchee Canal. We'll doubling up the lines on the boats on the docks, but pretty much figure that for us, this will be a non-event.

Unless storm surge exceeds about 10', I'm confident you'll be fine above the Franklin lock. If it were me, I would contact the Franklin lock to know at what storm surge level they would open the lock. For Ian, they opened the lock creating a higher storm surge in LaBelle. My choice for Moore Haven was because it's above the Ortona lock which wasn't opened for Ian.

Ted

 

[mvweebles]

If I were in Ft Myers area, I'd keep an eye out for changes, but right now wouldn't make any movements.

Storm surge forecast is 3-feet right now.

Where I live in the Madeira Beach area is a different matter - surge (second pic) is forecast to be much higher. If Weebles were there, I still wouldn't worry because she'll be on a boat lift and can withstand at least 6-foot of surge.

Peter

 

[slowgoesit]

Unless storm surge exceeds about 10', I'm confident you'll be fine above the Franklin lock. If it were me, I would contact the Franklin lock to know at what storm surge level they would open the lock. For Ian, they opened the lock creating a higher storm surge in LaBelle. My choice for Moore Haven was because it's above the Ortona lock which wasn't opened for Ian.

Ted

We are in Turkey Creek neighborhood, which is just above Ortona Lock, so I feel pretty comfortable. . . . not complacent, but comfortable. That doesn't mean that we're not going to be out picking up loose stuff, doubling up on mooring lines etc though . . .

 

[psneeld]

Based on how "certain" all these weather guys are for track and intensity (even though their bottom line is still...we really don't know for sure) I would be headed East to minimize and surge and wind. Wind can screw you up as bad as surge in some ways, making simple tasks not so simple.

Yep...... I would be enroute to Indiantown right now and when seeing what the final track is, stay put or head East to the ICW then South if I see the wind field data says "better" further South.

 

[O C Diver]

We are in Turkey Creek neighborhood, which is just above Ortona Lock, so I feel pretty comfortable. . . . not complacent, but comfortable. That doesn't mean that we're not going to be out picking up loose stuff, doubling up on mooring lines etc though . . .

Yes, Turkey Creek is a good place to stay. A departed member of the forum (FF) was there and I stayed at his dock several times.

Ted