Hurricane Irma
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Wifey B: Oh god, no.
She indicated we probably wouldn't hear from her but while storms don't play favorites, I sure hope this one does with her. She's a battler, a survivor, one of the most incredible women I know who makes so much of her life and happiness with little. She's just one we know too. A lot of Janice's out there and she's in the worst area.
Bigsfish
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I'm tied along the river near you, on the other side of 27 avenue bridge, doubled the dock lines and added fender balls plus the canvas is put away. I've gone thru every hurricane for the last 25 years at the same place and tied the same. So far never a serious problem.
Good luck, Sunday afternoon we will knife more.
I'm tied along the river near you, on the other side of 27 avenue bridge, doubled the dock lines and added fender balls plus the canvas is put away. I've gone thru every hurricane for the last 25 years at the same place and tied the same. So far never a serious problem.
Good luck, Sunday afternoon we will knife more.
Cruise ships being used for rescue missions ....
Hurricane Irma: Cruise ships on rescue mission in Caribbean | Miami Herald
Hurricane Irma: Cruise ships on rescue mission in Caribbean | Miami Herald
kev_rm
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menzies
Guru
Now I am starting to think there is some BS going on.
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They have been saying for nearly 18 hours that Irma has been moving west and then slightly west by NW. Every update since early this morning says that she will remain over Cuba for a "few hours." Maybe their definition of a "few hours" is different from mine.
However the latest update is that
"At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radar near
latitude 23.3 North, longitude 80.8 West. Radar loops indicate
that Irma has temporarily slowed down, but the hurricane has been
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) since earlier
today. A northwest motion is expected to begin tonight with a turn
toward the north-northwest on Sunday."
Well based on this chart it would need to start going durn near North By NW very soon. In fact if in does stay over Cuba for a while it would have to go nearly due north to match that track.
I understand that these are hard to predict - but the next "M" mark is withing hours and yet the track seems to conflict with the narrative.
What the hell gives here? Do they not want to show it going further off shore because that might make people complacent?
Go to Mike's Weather Page... powered by Sparks Energy!
They have been saying for nearly 18 hours that Irma has been moving west and then slightly west by NW. Every update since early this morning says that she will remain over Cuba for a "few hours." Maybe their definition of a "few hours" is different from mine.
However the latest update is that
"At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radar near
latitude 23.3 North, longitude 80.8 West. Radar loops indicate
that Irma has temporarily slowed down, but the hurricane has been
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) since earlier
today. A northwest motion is expected to begin tonight with a turn
toward the north-northwest on Sunday."
Well based on this chart it would need to start going durn near North By NW very soon. In fact if in does stay over Cuba for a while it would have to go nearly due north to match that track.
I understand that these are hard to predict - but the next "M" mark is withing hours and yet the track seems to conflict with the narrative.
What the hell gives here? Do they not want to show it going further off shore because that might make people complacent?
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HopCar
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Good luck to you. I can't think of a better place for our boats. I just lost my land line phone and Internet. Still have power and cell service.
menzies
Guru
See below from Royal Caribbean's site. We are watching this as we are leaving Thursday for San Juan and then taking a cruise through the Leward and southern Islands.
I suspect the other lines are doing similar.
"We are mobilizing ships and supplies to help people in need. In coordination with the US and local governments we are dispatching ships to St. Thomas and St. Maarten and stand ready to assist Key West, Tampa and other locations. Presently, Adventure of the Seas will make a humanitarian stop in St. Maarten on Sunday and Majesty of the Seas will make humanitarian calls in St. Thomas and St. Maarten to provide supplies and also assist in transporting evacuees in St. Maarten to safety. Additionally, we have Empress of the Seas and Enchantment of the Seas ready to assist Key West and Tampa once the impact of the storm is known.
The following sailings are departing as scheduled:
Liberty of the Seas: September 10 Western Caribbean cruise
Serenade of the Seas: September 10 New England/Canada cruise
The following sailings are canceled:
NEW: Majesty of the Seas: September 15 Bahamas cruise
We are cancelling this cruise to utilize the ship for humanitarian efforts in areas of the Caribbean with urgent need."
HopCar
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I sure hope she found a good place to hide. Seems like a real nice person.
cardude01
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I'm hoping your scenario is correct since my boat sits right in the path, but I seriously doubt there is a conspiracy afoot.
But I do wonder, has the size of this thing made it harder to model?
menzies
Guru
Not suggesting a "conspiracy," but maybe a hesitancy to call an more offshore path. And while the size may make it harder, when they are a day out it should be tighter.
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A few hours is a long time. Her outer rings proceed her so that often when they're saying she will hit so and so at so and so, they're not talking about the eye even being close yet. She's been over Cuba since early this morning. Yet at the current pace, the eye isn't expected to reach Key West until Sunday morning about 9:00 AM. That's by the Euro model. 3 hours sooner by the US model. One of the confusing things is multiple models.
However, by 10:00 tonight, Key West is expected to have 75+ mph winds and remain at hurricane speeds until Sunday night.
Miami is expected to have 75 mph by 4:00 AM and continue with them close to 24 hours. In Fort Lauderdale, our winds start to pick up around mindnight and are high by morning.
Meanwhile Fort Myers does not hit 75 mph until Sunday night.
The reason for the strange wind numbers is that the NE area of the hurricane carries the strong winds. Meanwhile the surge will hit Fort Myers ahead of the winds. I don't show the eye reaching Fort Myers until about 7:00-9:00 PM Sunday night.
It's expected to turn NW and then NNW very soon. The eye is expected to move off Cuba very soon, but the hurricane is so large it will still be "over Cuba" until late Sunday afternoon.
As it goes up the west coast it is NNW but heavy on the N. It is predicted to follow the coast line very close.
It's moving so slow now that it's taking longer to get here. The Euro model seems to be reflecting the slow speed more than the GFS model.
As to the next M mark, it will be very little from the last one, only about 30 miles.
However, by 10:00 tonight, Key West is expected to have 75+ mph winds and remain at hurricane speeds until Sunday night.
Miami is expected to have 75 mph by 4:00 AM and continue with them close to 24 hours. In Fort Lauderdale, our winds start to pick up around mindnight and are high by morning.
Meanwhile Fort Myers does not hit 75 mph until Sunday night.
The reason for the strange wind numbers is that the NE area of the hurricane carries the strong winds. Meanwhile the surge will hit Fort Myers ahead of the winds. I don't show the eye reaching Fort Myers until about 7:00-9:00 PM Sunday night.
It's expected to turn NW and then NNW very soon. The eye is expected to move off Cuba very soon, but the hurricane is so large it will still be "over Cuba" until late Sunday afternoon.
As it goes up the west coast it is NNW but heavy on the N. It is predicted to follow the coast line very close.
It's moving so slow now that it's taking longer to get here. The Euro model seems to be reflecting the slow speed more than the GFS model.
As to the next M mark, it will be very little from the last one, only about 30 miles.
I think what I've seen says it will be either just on shore,right on the shore line or a slight distance off shore. It's really not definite until it beats the system slowing it down. The charts have really consolidated and the only one inconsistent is the NAM which seems to be on it's own wave length regularly.
Let's note this too and this is it doesn't matter if it's 10 or 20 miles east or west at this point, the winds and surge will be very near the same. It was the major change, which wasn't as major as it appears since the Euro model was always west of the GFS, from east to west that made the huge difference.
menzies
Guru
Check your wind speed numbers against the NHC probabilities here.
Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities
menzies
Guru
For the keys, but it may may a huge difference further up the coast as the
difference potentially widens - perhaps negatively around Tampa Bay with the gulf bottom there, but more positive around the Bend.
Too complicated for me. I don't use their numbers, don't use knots instead of mph and don't use GMT instead of EDT. lol
Every source will have different numbers.
what_barnacles
Guru
Your constant hand wringing and feverent need to reassure yourself is appalling.
Would you please for all of the REAL victims sake, shut up.
Would you please for all of the REAL victims sake, shut up.
menzies
Guru
menzies
Guru
How are things in Texas? You guys have not been in the news much recently.
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Benthic2
Guru
"shut up" ??
How about: "Stop Reading!!"
How about: "Stop Reading!!"
menzies
Guru
OK, some more quarterbacking. From the 11:00 update.
"IRMA TAKING ITS TIME MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA..."
"The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of North Miami
Beach to Jupiter Inlet."
Irma is moving slowly northwestward away from the north coast of Cuba near 6 mph
(9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected through late Monday."
Is that a mistake, did they really mean late Monday?
The rest of it. So it is now not moving inland until the Panhandle? That's a hell of a change?
"On the forecasttrack, the center of Irma is expected to cross the Lower Florida
Keys Sunday morning and then move near or along the west coast of
Florida Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Irma should then
move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia
Monday afternoon."
Is that a significant change or what?
Compare the 8pm update I previously posted to the 11pm update. Look at the cone shift at the top half of Florida.
"IRMA TAKING ITS TIME MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA..."
"The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of North Miami
Beach to Jupiter Inlet."
Irma is moving slowly northwestward away from the north coast of Cuba near 6 mph
(9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected through late Monday."
Is that a mistake, did they really mean late Monday?
The rest of it. So it is now not moving inland until the Panhandle? That's a hell of a change?
"On the forecasttrack, the center of Irma is expected to cross the Lower Florida
Keys Sunday morning and then move near or along the west coast of
Florida Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Irma should then
move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia
Monday afternoon."
Is that a significant change or what?
Compare the 8pm update I previously posted to the 11pm update. Look at the cone shift at the top half of Florida.
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Benthic2
Guru
I'm sure everyone knows this...but just in case....When your power is out, if you have a UPS ( uninteruptable power supply ) for your computer, you can charge your cell phone from it.
Benthic2
Guru
As the storm get closer....changes in watches and warnings aren't alway due to changes in the expected path. It may just be that you are now in a skinnier part of the forecast cone.
That's not what they're saying. It's still running up the coast. What they're saying, although they worded it poorly, is that after coming up the peninsula, it will continue inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia.
From there it actually ends up in Western Tennessee, although obviously not a hurricane at that point and that path very subject to change.
So, no significant change.
Now they are debating where it will actually make it's first landfall, thinking it might run beside Naples rather than make landfall and then make landfall at Sarasota. In a way that would be better but it would give it more time to gain wind speed though.
They're all debating a 10 to 20 mile shift, although not saying it will make a huge difference.
They're all debating a 10 to 20 mile shift, although not saying it will make a huge difference.
