What's the worst that happens? You eat at Cracker Barrel 4 times, have hotel sex and then drive back home?
But my point is, it's not an average storm. Bottled water and bologna sandwiches are ok planning but that's probably not the level of plan you should be thinking about with this one. It's about 4 times wider than Florida. And it's gonna push a big surge...'cause it's a big storm. Things will be mess.
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Question for you experts re: spaghetti models...
Doing some research, seems like there is a LOT of variance with them, and some seems to be just thrown together and some use some of the worlds most powerful computers for hours to generate them. Some of the best that get mentioned a bit include ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, and UKMET. Yet a search is hard to find these models.
Any one know how to just search these?
Re: Spaghetti Models
No idea. The Answer Man for all things Weather is Richard on Dauntless. I will say that the Weather people were very accurate about Harvey.
When I heard CNN say 'the European Model' I thought they were talking about our First Lady.
Menzies -
I got those numbers backwards. You only eat at Cracker Barrel once....
The computer models have shifted east a little but some were always east. The ensemble still is a mess of spaghetti.
You can some of the computer models on Wunderground, but all in the same chart. Still they're color coded so you can pick each one out. GFS, HWRS, AEM, UKMET, HMON and NGX2 are there.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma
Here is ECMWF.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090512&fh=0
I think GFDL was retired. GFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble - 2017 Real-Time Forecasts
It will push a big surge in places but there's never a surge over 6' here which means we're ok. Even with a CAT 5. Plus we're not settling for bottled water and bologna. We're comfortable with several local options and homes that are not in any evacuation zone.
Better do the full day. We aren't none of us as young as we once was.
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BandB,
Good for you, and after all your fine efforts, you deserve a safe haven. Hope the storm is minimal or none in FLL.
As for the rest of the state, I hope we can all escape harms way and have a plan A and a plan B.
I'll be tying boats down and boarding up in the next two days and will probably make a go or stay decision early Sat.
Best to all.
Hurricanes are one of the big reasons we moved from St Thomas, USVI after 20 years to the PNW. Jim Cantore is not welcome up here,
We are halfway up the ICW. Spending the night in Waca Wachie tonight then 4 more hours tomorrow to Grande Dunes. A buddy of mine came with me and we are having a blast. But tomorrow how should I leave the boat? As many bumpers and lines that I have, but what about shore power? I'm thinking no shore power and empty the fridge and leave it open. Should I tie the boat tight to the floating docks or loose?
We are halfway up the ICW. Spending the night in Waca Wachie tonight then 4 more hours tomorrow to Grande Dunes. A buddy of mine came with me and we are having a blast. But tomorrow how should I leave the boat? As many bumpers and lines that I have, but what about shore power? I'm thinking no shore power and empty the fridge and leave it open. Should I tie the boat tight to the floating docks or loose?
101TUG - I hope Le Ti survives...