Hurricane Irma

[Moonstruck]

We love Savannah and love taking our RIB and exploring way up the river and all around the islands. Still, I'd personally choose Thunderbolt based on what I know. I haven't, however, carefully evaluated them for surge of this possible amount.

I wonder where the Savannah Yacht Club boats go. That could be good info.

 

[BandB]

I wonder where the Savannah Yacht Club boats go. That could be good info.

Wifey B: Where do you Charleston people go?

I learned a new word today. DROPSONDE. It's a gadget the hurricane hunters drop from their 10,000 ft into the hurricane. It's even got a cute little parachute. It then records info on it's way down. Oh, and in the US, the speed is the highest speed sustained for 1 minute at 33 ft. I was just curious how they said it's 175 mph or whatever, and no one around me seemed to have a good answer.

While at it, another evacuate to where observation. The Atlanta Speedway opened up their infield and camping area like they do for races. RV's and tents is what people would have. Well, just noticed they're supposed to get the storm when it's still got 45 mph winds. For a house, not bad, but not good for a tent, I'd think.

 

[Moonstruck]

Wifey B: Where do you Charleston people go?

I learned a new word today. DROPSONDE. It's a gadget the hurricane hunters drop from their 10,000 ft into the hurricane. It's even got a cute little parachute. It then records info on it's way down. Oh, and in the US, the speed is the highest speed sustained for 1 minute at 33 ft. I was just curious how they said it's 175 mph or whatever, and no one around me seemed to have a good answer.

While at it, another evacuate to where observation. The Atlanta Speedway opened up their infield and camping area like they do for races. RV's and tents is what people would have. Well, just noticed they're supposed to get the storm when it's still got 45 mph winds. For a house, not bad, but not good for a tent, I'd think.

Usually up the rivers and creeks. I have just been in Charleston once when there was a scare. It didn't really materialize. When we are in SC most of the time we stay at Shelter Cove on Hilton Head. Shelter Cove is aptly named. Hurricane Matthew totally destroyed Palmetto Bay Marina just down Broad Creek from Shelter Cove. Shelter Cove received very little damage. We've been through a few blow at Shelter Cove, but no Hurricanes. We did have a scare, and I had Moonstruck hauled out on a fairly high bank.

 

[pxl1210]

The worst winds aren't projected in either model to hit Miami directly. Note that even the areas "hit" so far were not hit by 175 mph winds. They were hit by a hurricane with 175 mph recorded winds. The GFS has it running offshore. The Euro model just moved west a bit since I wrote that but has it moved west a bit more again and now has it running up the middle of the state. The current Euro model has it down to 130 mph maximum sustained speed by the time it passes Miami.

Now that's not saying it can't hit where you are at 145 mph, just that it's unlikely. It can still do a lot of damage at lower speeds and in the areas that don't get the maximum speeds. It's way different from Andrew in the respect of size. Andrew was intense, fast and narrow. I don't know if you were in South Florida, but sure you've read of the damage in Miami from Andrew. However, 10 miles north of the worst hit area there was little damage. It didn't hit Fort Lauderdale. This hurricane is under one model going to impact the entire width of the peninsula and under the other at least half the width.

We have to all plan for the worst, but we won't all get the worst, if that makes sense. It's shown to be 90 mph by the time it hits SC. Well, Matthew did huge damage to SC and they had major damage just from an unnamed storm in October 2015.

In considering our situation we've considered it all. House built to 150 mph standards but what if it collapses. Generator but what if no gas. RIB but what if it's destroyed. Walk but what if power lines down. 100 year surge is under 6' but what if 15'.

We can evacuate to condos 2.2 and 3.2 miles from us or offices or businesses west but not convinced any of them are safer. Definitely flying to Las Vegas would have been safer, but this is our home and unanimously everyone in our group and extended family wants to be here. As to boats, they're as protected as any boats can be. However, 150 mph structures can collapse, all lines could break, other boats could come flying in from all directions.

All we've done is managed our risk to what for us is an acceptable level.

Human nature though isn't always right. We have an older couple we moved here with us. They're in their 60's and they're concerned as are all of us. We offered to fly them out. We plead with them to leave. We cross examined them to be sure they didn't want to stay out of loyalty to us. They didn't budge.

As to your boat, you're doing all you can. Highly unlikely surge is going to toss boats into you. Wind may. 15' is certainly better in terms of domino effect than 2 and 3' we saw a lot of in South Texas. At 15' apart, many boats would have been saved or suffered far less damage.

I talked to an employee who was in Miami Lakes for Andrew. They lived in the apartments over the town. They were told by the complex to leave although the city and county said not to. They stayed but had a new car and so with the parking lot empty they drove it around the lot looking to get out of falling range of a palm tree. They couldn't find such a spot. So they parked where they considered best, went inside. Got ready to look out about 9:00 the following morning or so and said after safely coming through Andrew they figured their car was destroyed but no big deal. Well, two trees fell with both landing with a foot of it. Not a scratch on the car.

If we come out of this alive and unhurt, then it's a victory. House, cars, boats, all just extra prizes.

Really appreciate the input here, you have a good perspective on things and I can tell you've been through this a time or 2 before. We've done all the prep we can, time to get out of harms way and stay positive and optimistic.

 

[FootballFan]

I have been totally out of touch with news today - except for talking with employees in S FL.


Looks worse for S FL since early this morning. Of course listening to CNN sitting a hotel room in the Midwest - but the message is outlook is much worse for S Fl than it was last night.


Caught up on the thread, this is sounding like the eastward track is moving back to the west.


Just the thing with storms - we can have all the forecast models in the world - but at the end of the day - they are just projections.


Hope anyone the S Fl area is prepared for what may come over the weekend...

 

[kev_rm]

The 8pm update looks more like bisecting florida. just heading out to sea notwithstanding that's probably a good overall outcome

 

[Benthic2]

Usually up the creeks. .

so you're saying they're "up the creek ??

 

[Martin J]

Great strong family support. Navy ships on the way. Talk of small plane at Beef island tomorrow. But hangers,control tower bldgs etc all trashed. No power, cell towers, communications, inter island ferries (Speedys) severe damage. Rersilient warm people, They will survive, but tourist industry down the tubes for years. Still no contact Re: my trawler.

 

[Lou_tribal]

Anybody has any news from 101TUG? St Barth was very badly damaged, hope he was safe.

L

 

[dhays]

Not to hi-jack this string but as a Native Houstonian who took 18" of water in my house last week (a house with 63 years of no water - and yes I have flood insurance), I'm curious what you're hearing in the press about our response to Harvey. So far, it's a huge mess but we are just "gettin' er done". People here are stoic. Nobody's complaining or fighting. It's like ants rebuilding a kicked-over mound. Everyone's helping each other and 80% didn't have flood insurance. 300-400,000 homes flooded or damaged in the region. FEMA was broke before Harvey...now they're broker.

My gas still works so I'm grilling steaks for my demo crew on Friday. We still have many communities under water and inaccessible. JJWatt raised $20 million in 6 days.
BTW, my adjuster's here from Jacksonville. He's a little freaked out about Irma plus he's on no sleep, sharing a hotel suite with 3 other guys. He said he knows where he's probably headed next....back home, unfortunately.

Just know we are pulling for Florida over here.

Again, Irma's the subject, but If things go south, I hope we're a good model of human behavior. It's been pretty impressive.

Your description reflects what I've been hearing on the TV news as well as patients with connections in Houston.

 

[BandB]

Anybody has any news from 101TUG? St Barth was very badly damaged, hope he was safe.

L

He headed south in advance. He hadn't, the last I heard, gotten a lot of St. Barth info but he was safely tucked away at St. Lucia.

 

[BandB]

I have been totally out of touch with news today - except for talking with employees in S FL.


Looks worse for S FL since early this morning. Of course listening to CNN sitting a hotel room in the Midwest - but the message is outlook is much worse for S Fl than it was last night.


Caught up on the thread, this is sounding like the eastward track is moving back to the west.


Just the thing with storms - we can have all the forecast models in the world - but at the end of the day - they are just projections.


Hope anyone the S Fl area is prepared for what may come over the weekend...

I don't think the forecast for South Florida has changed appreciably today, just become closer and lower odds of it missing. Now, the west coast has come back into it more. However, the models keep jogging east and west so within their percent of error, haven't changed at all. As we're getting closer, the accuracy increases dramatically. Saturday and Sunday will be stressful for all.

 

[healhustler]

Saturday and Sunday will be stressful for all.

This is the 2nd cat 5 I've had to wait for and the 4th over cat 3. I don't remember a more stressful buildup to any of those storms, and when this is all over, I might just get the hell out of here (assuming I'll be able to).

 

[BandB]

Really appreciate the input here, you have a good perspective on things and I can tell you've been through this a time or 2 before. We've done all the prep we can, time to get out of harms way and stay positive and optimistic.

No, but we have people with us who have. Only hurricane or post hurricane, I've been to was last week to South Texas. Some asked if that didn't scare us more. The opposite if anything. We saw people surviving, doing incredible things. As has been pointed out the people have really pulled together. There has been some problem but it's so minimal compared to all the good people have been doing. Houston had an issue very unique with the flooding, not a typical hurricane situation. The Crescent Bend had a CAT 4 direct hit.

It's something we prepared mentally for the day we decided to move here. If you move to SF, don't you prepare for the possibility of an earthquake or to Oklahoma for a tornado? I used to travel to NYC and prepared the first time for getting mugged. Simple preparation to give them whatever they wanted and let them run off. Swallow one's pride. Honestly, I'm worried more about others simply because I won't or can't know. I'll know how I'm doing, good or bad. I hate the destruction in the Caribbean and feel so much sadness thinking of south and central Bahamas getting hit again.

Concerned, apprehensive. But I have so much support here with me. I know I'm one of the lucky ones. I'm realistic about what might happen. I am more optimistic about recovery than those on television though. It won't be easy, but it will happen.

 

[FootballFan]

when will the bridges shut down in S FL?

 

[BandB]

This is the 2nd cat 5 I've had to wait for and the 4th over cat 3. I don't remember a more stressful buildup to any of those storms, and when this is all over, I might just get the hell out of here (assuming I'll be able to).

Wifey B: We're committed or some would say need to be committed. Ties too strong and we love it here too much. You think perchance this one has been more stressful partly because on the news earlier and more places? We've been told so many times here it is in Barbuda so this shows what it might do in South Florida. Of course it's not the same.

 

[Moonstruck]

The projected tract is reminiscent of Donna in 1960. Donna ripped through the Keys and ran up the center of the state. Then went out to sea around Jax, and turned to make another land fall in East North Carolina. I had just gotten to Florida for my first semester of college. Donna ran right over us. We were even in the eye. It's true that when the eye passes the wind comes from the opposite direction. Trees were down all over. It took several days to restore power.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1960/Major-Hurricane-Donna

 

[Moonstruck]

so you're saying they're "up the creek ??

I guess you could put it that way. By the way our hurricane hole at Orange Beach, AL was Soldiers Creek. That's right off of Perdido Bay.

 

[menzies]

Based on the 11pm update I do hope the Florida Panhandle haven't been complacent!

 

[BandB]

The projected tract is reminiscent of Donna in 1960. ]

Afraid I don't remember Donna. My wife put me up to that comment.

The wind speed of irma has dropped. Still a CAT 5 but starting down. Now a change much different than Donna and that is the projected left turn along the way, getting Atlanta and then the Tennessee Valley. Obviously not as a hurricane. Current projection is hitting US as CAT 4, drop to CAT 3 by 8 PM Sunday, and to tropical storm by 8 PM Monday.

Now the negative is that storm surge would probably cover more area on the west coast of FL than on the east coast.

As a tropical storm it might well get the Panhandle as Menzies suggested, even the southeast of Alabama.

 

[sdowney717]

Hurricane Andrew was a really bad awful one for Florida.

Notice here how much larger is Irma.
Although I wonder if it will be much worse than Andrew was. Bigger just means more rain farther from the center eye.

Here’s why Irma is a monster hurricane, in one GIF. | Grist

 

[FF]

"when will the bridges shut down in S FL?"

Usually when the winds are over 35mph , or the evac traffic is wall to wall.

Ordered shut in the keys as with only one road in & out its critical.

 

[sdowney717]

My brothers family with 3 high schoolers refuses to leave Ft. Lauderdale.
And I don't blame them. They live in Plantation in a brick single story home.

The roads are jammed with panicking drivers and hardly flowing, and their cars are running out of gas and they are in miserable heat. What happens if they are stuck on the highway when Irma hits?

Irma is going from south to north and path is going to follow the interstate roads all the way up Florida..

Traffic jam nightmares as Irma nears Florida | Fox News

 

[jleonard]

Just found out our house in New Port Richey is under a voluntary evacuation order. We are currently up north living on the boat, but have plans to haul early next week, then drive to see what's left late next week/weekend.
Hopefully we won't get too much rain or surge.

 

[Donsan]

Am I alone in feeling our government officials and the media are guilty of creating a mass panic throughout FL, SC and GA in their race to be sure federal funds and help will be there for their state?

We just got home from a trip up north and Wednesday night stayed in a small town near Spartanburg SC, fully 130 miles from the coast. It seemed like everyone in town was panicing. Water was selling like crazy and the gas stations were backed up with customers. Thursday morning, no station had regular no lead and the pumps were closed. We were heading south on I-95 and almost no traffic headed south but traffic headed north was pumper to pumper. And of course there was multi-car accidents to further slow down traffic and add to the chaos.

It just seems like the panicing is taking place much too early and many evacuating on whims rather than potential danger. They are making worse it for those who really do need to evacuate.

On the plus side, we did see recovery resources headed south to deal with the aftermath of the storm.

Sorry for the rant.

 

[cardude01]

..

 

[psneeld]

And if they arent prepared, people would Monday morning quaterback at the top of their lungs....heck they are going to anyway...

Panic is self generated, info passed is just that.

I have friends staying in the keys, they are worried, not panicked.

They are in mandatory evac areas....the Florida govenor has daid 2X just this morning that not everyone needs to or even leave the state. Stay off the roads if you dont need to be there. I think the press conferences have been pretty good.

So officials cant win in a disaster because beople will die and suffer no matter what they do, their job is to minimize it.

I could go politicsl explaining reasoning of public info release, but best left out of here....again a no win situation for any official operation.

 

[smitty477]

And if they arent prepared, people would Monday morning quaterback at the top of their lungs....heck they are going to anyway...

Panic is self generated, info passed is just that.

I have friends staying in the keys, they are worried, not panicked.

They are in mandatory evac areas....the Florida govenor has daid 2X just this morning that not everyone needs to or even leave the state. Stay off the roads if you dont need to be there. I think the press conferences have been pretty good.

So officials cant win in a disaster because beople will die and suffer no matter what they do, their job is to minimize it.

I could go politicsl explaining reasoning of public info release, but best left out of here....again a no win situation for any official operation.

Absolutely correct ....

 

[ksanders]

This whole preparation thing, or lack there of is difficult to understand.

It's stupid for example that people line up at Home Depot to buy plywood for their windows the week a hurricane is going to hit.

It's stupid that they are clearing the shelves of food.

It's stupid and proof that people are stupid that there is mass panic right now.

How about preparing for things like this? How about making personal choices to prepare?

I have talked to several friends and customers this week about this subject and everybody is amazed at the utter lack of thinking ahead that people do.

First off there is zero chance that anybody that thinks ahead would ever buy a house in an area that cold be storm surge flooded.

Anybody that thinks ahead would have hurricane covers for their windows. Shutters, or plywood, pre cut and marked with the window name.

Anybody that thinks ahead would have water stashed, and food, and a generator, and fuel, the list goes on...

Seems to me that the primary responsibility of an adult(s) is the protection of their family. I cannot imagine failing at that responsibility.

Modern men and women have lost their survival skills. No modern urban men and women have lost their survival skills. Lots of country folk are prepared. They build their houses on a hill. They stock the pantry. They know a storm is coming and can weather it out...Just like country folks have always done.

 

[smitty477]

Jose is now Cat 4 and headed for the same Leeward islands that have been destroyed by Irma.
With much communication down I fear they wont even see this one coming.