One of the biggest problems, as I'm sure everyone has noticed, is that this storm has been incredibly difficult to forecast. Models are all over the place. Models that usually are not close, are turning out to be much closer than "old reliables".
In the week+ that I've been watching this storm, it appears to me that the NCH forecasts have been playing catch-up the entire time. Other models, that historically have been poo-pooed have turned out to be much more accurate, at least so far.
A week ago, NHC was calling for OTS, and anything that came close to Florida was laughed at. Now?...people are vehemently arguing over whether the storm makes landfall in Port St. Lucy, or JAX, or pick you spot.
Bottom line, and my takeaway is that NOBODY knew where this storm was going. We all look at the models, and we asses risk based on those models. When a few models call for a track that's further west, and then a few more models start agreeing with those, you've got to believe that something's up.
These are called models for a reason. And one thing you can be sure of, is the old GIGO....Garbage In...Garbage Out. So when conditions are normal?...then the models perform fairly well. When the conditions are ABnormal, which they clearly are in this case?...then all bets are off, and you have to watch it like a hawk.