Hurricane Matthew?

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Evacuations off Andros Island begin at 0645 tomorrow morning, no Sunday morning sleep! I won't complain though, receive full pay and per diem while waiting it out in Florida.
 
Just took a look at everything, and started to relax a bit, then read the long-term, which says this:
"We cannot yet rule out the possibility of Matthew moving close enough to the Florida coast to produce major impacts. Among the five members of the “high-probability” Euro ensemble from 12Z Saturday (see Figure 5), two members take Matthew sharply westward across South Florida by next weekend and up Florida’s West Coast. The 12Z Saturday UKMET model also brings Matthew to the vicinity of South Florida by Thursday. Considering that the Euro, GFS, and UKMET are our top three track models, it’s clear there is still plenty of uncertainty in how Matthew may affect the U.S. later next week."

So Florida is by no means out of the woods yet. The graphic which accompanied that showed 2-3 tracks coming pretty much through Ft. Lauderdale and straight over to Tampa.

Crazy storm.
 
Miami is currently out of the cone of death but there is too much uncertainty about this one. They are talking about a ridge forming to the NE of the storm. That would push it right into Florida.

I'm going to do a little more hurricane prep work today. I've got three bee hives in my back yard. I guess I'll lose them if a hurricane hits.
 
Our local meteorologist's Facebook post today:

MATTHEW'S ONLY CHANCE TO MAKE LANDFALL ON OUR COAST DEPENDENT ON SOMETHING THAT HASN'T DEVELOPED YET

With Major Hurricane Matthew making its much anticipated turn to the north, the only way our coast takes a direct hit is if something else shoves it back toward the west. Matthew's current longitude is 74.3 W and Cape Hatteras is 75.5 W. Matthew will in all likelihood turn northward and perhaps even a bit east of north in the next 24 hours. Were that trend to continue, rough surf and gusty winds but no landfall. However there are some indications that an upper level ridge will build over the mid-Atlantic and northeast states by Tue or Wed. If this happens, Matthew would turn back to the Northwest. So here are the main considerations:

1. How far east is Matthew in about 48 hours?
2. Does that ridge over the northeast develop mid week and shove Matthew back to the west?
3. Even if #2 happens, will Matthew be too far east at the start of that process for it to matter?
4. Oh and one other thing. Strong hurricanes have been known to build ridges to their northeast due to the transport northward of air warmed by condensation. This would also result in a more westward track.

No easy answers yet-stay tuned!
 
Interesting perspective:


NHC has S. Florida in 20-25% chance of TS force winds. The UKMET has a direct hit. The models are not accounting for the slower speed Matthew is moving. So until they adjust to that, there is no such thing as increasingly unlikely.

I have lived in S. Florida for 30 years. I have seen firsthand where models didn't have a grasp on a system. It's happening again with Matthew.

If there was a strong front coming and Matthew was stalled, then yes, the chances of him hitting would be getting lower and lower. But there is no such thing going on here."
 
Great info. Just joining the thread.
Thanks!
 
Interesting hurricane trivia. No hurricane that was a 3, 4, or 5 and was within 2 degrees of Matthew has ever hit FL. They have hit LA and SC and NC. Now, there's always a first, especially with hurricanes although Matthew is highly unlikely to hit FL. It is somewhat likely to cause some rains and sea disturbance however. Now it's sort of borderline 3 vs 4 and it's likelihood to hit Haiti is especially concerning with 55,000 people living in tents.
 
Lobstah said:
Interesting perspective:


NHC has S. Florida in 20-25% chance of TS force winds. The UKMET has a direct hit. The models are not accounting for the slower speed Matthew is moving. So until they adjust to that, there is no such thing as increasingly unlikely.

I have lived in S. Florida for 30 years. I have seen firsthand where models didn't have a grasp on a system. It's happening again with Matthew.

If there was a strong front coming and Matthew was stalled, then yes, the chances of him hitting would be getting lower and lower. But there is no such thing going on here."
Click to expand...

Lobstah,

Good points. Ya never know where these things will go, but fortunately the spaghetti models are fairly close. But remember Charlie? Took a dramatic turn and caught a lot of folks off guard with 140mph winds. Ugly. I was out of state for that one and totally unprepared, had it hit the Tampa Bay area.

All we can do is have a good plan of action... long before it hits. Mine is to board up, tie down the boat and get out of town..... even if a cat I.
 
Looking at models this morning, outlook is getting worse for FL. Several models have done a major shift west due to the "ridge" coming in stronger than earlier indicated.
This pushes the storm towards Fl.
This guy made this statement earlier, along with a graphic, which I can't post here for some reason:
"Michael VentriceVerified account
‏@MJVentrice
Not good. This AM's ECMWF High probability cluster with a BIG statement. All members now track #Matthew into Florida at a Cat 4 intensity."
There is issue with his usage of "ALL members"...but still.
 
BandB said:
Interesting hurricane trivia. No hurricane that was a 3, 4, or 5 and was within 2 degrees of Matthew has ever hit FL. They have hit LA and SC and NC. Now, there's always a first, especially with hurricanes although Matthew is highly unlikely to hit FL. It is somewhat likely to cause some rains and sea disturbance however. Now it's sort of borderline 3 vs 4 and it's likelihood to hit Haiti is especially concerning with 55,000 people living in tents.
Click to expand...

Not sure what you're referring to with " within 2 degrees".

Ted
 
Lobstah said:
Looking at models this morning, outlook is getting worse for FL. Several models have done a major shift west due to the "ridge" coming in stronger than earlier indicated.
This pushes the storm towards Fl.
This guy made this statement earlier, along with a graphic, which I can't post here for some reason:
"Michael VentriceVerified account
‏@MJVentrice
Not good. This AM's ECMWF High probability cluster with a BIG statement. All members now track #Matthew into Florida at a Cat 4 intensity."
There is issue with his usage of "ALL members"...but still.
Click to expand...

I'm not seeing what you're saying anywhere I'm looking. Everything I see has it dropping to CAT 3 and missing any direct hit on FL.

From Wunderground:

The ECMWF

and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,

with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left

of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a

little left of the latest multi-model consensus.

While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew

east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global

ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In

addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew

could affect the remainder of the U.S. East Coast.​

From Weather.com

Beyond that, it remains uncertain how close Matthew's eyewall will pass near the northwest Bahamas later Thursday into Friday, and it is still too soon to determine which parts of the U.S. may be in danger late this week and next weekend.

For now, ensemble forecast guidance suggests we can't rule out at least tropical storm-force winds along the eastern Florida coast in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.

What will ultimately determine how close Matthew comes to at least the southeast U.S. coast (Virginia Tidewater southward) involves the timing and strength of upper-level high pressure along the East giving way to a southward dip in the jet stream, or upper trough, approaching from the central U.S. Here are the two scenarios:

Bigger U.S. coastal threat: Stronger and/or later-departing upper high pressure system off/near the Northeast coast with weaker and/or later-arriving upper-level trough from the Plains.
Lower U.S. coastal threat: Weaker and/or faster-departing upper high pressure system off/near Northeast coast with stronger and/or faster-arriving upper-level trough from the Plains.
Unfortunately, forecast guidance has not narrowed this uncertainty yet, which is not uncommon for a forecast beyond 4 days out.

However, repeated runs of forecast guidance suggests at least a decent chance of tropical storm-force winds near the coast of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday.​
 
Well...I'm not sure what to tell you, you seem to think I'm making all of this up?

Here's a forecast map from NHC. This "cone" has shifted considerably West over the past 24hrs.
When I look at this, Miami is seems to be within the cone of probability. Is it 20%?...30%??...don't know, and really don't care. The point is just that I think folks in FL/GA/SC/NC need to be aware that the forecasts on this, especially the track, are very dynamic.
Hurricane MATTHEW
 
Btw...a few points about the NHC and "real time" info. The NHC will always lag real time for a variety of reasons. 1) They're a government agency. They have scheduled updates. They are conservative, and they are very concerned about liability.
Some folks are saying they've done an excellent job.
There are really 3 components to forecasting something like this:
1) Strength
2) Track
3) Speed

While their track has been pretty accurate so far, the other two elements have not. I don't think that 1 out of 3 is all that great, but that's just IMHO.


Most, if not all, of the info I've posted has come directly from Dr. Jeff Master's blog on Wunderground. Scroll down to the bottom of his update, and read the comments being posted. There is real time analysis going on within those comments. Some are trash, some are excellent. It's the internet.

Stay safe.
 
Lobstah said:
Well...I'm not sure what to tell you, you seem to think I'm making all of this up?

Here's a forecast map from NHC. This "cone" has shifted considerably West over the past 24hrs.
When I look at this, Miami is seems to be within the cone of probability. Is it 20%?...30%??...don't know, and really don't care. The point is just that I think folks in FL/GA/SC/NC need to be aware that the forecasts on this, especially the track, are very dynamic.
Hurricane MATTHEW
Click to expand...

Agree, but the probability is for it to miss FL, and hope it does.

The problem is that its really too far out to accurately predict where it will go.

Look at Charlie for example. When it was nailing just north of Key West, it was squarely aimed for Tampa. And less than 1/2 day later it mad a dramatic over 30d turn and nailed Charlotte Harbor.

A lot of Tampa folks had left and went to Orlando, only to have to race back as it went over Orlando, too. The people in Punta Gorda didn't do so well.

I'd bet we'll know a LOT more perhaps late Wed or Thurs am.... when within 100 miles of Miami.
 
My point is that the probabilities for a miss have been decreasing, especially over last night/this morning.
NOAA is sending a Golden Hawk from Edwards AFB in Cali to come spend some time with Mathew, which will provide more real-time data.

Stay tuned.
 
Here are some posts with the near "real-time" analysis I spoke of earlier, from within the past 30mins:

"ALL 20 GFS ensembles shifted west just off the coast or make landfall in Florida and up to the SC and N. Carolina coast, Major impacts even if off shore."

Quote from NHC Director:
"Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector · 1h1 hour ago

Dr. Rick Knabb Retweeted Josh Bassan

Some #Matthew tracks from global model ensembles, not all shown on TV, show possibility of Florida hurricane impacts

Dr. Rick Knabb"

"
Just about all of the 12Z GEFS are coming into FL now. WOW!!!"

So most of this info you'd never see from NHC. That doesn't mean they don't have value.
 
"Folks..Navy Model now has Matthew INLAND southern Florida....stay alert and ready folks.............."

This model is called NAVGEM, it's available on Levi's tropicaltidbits page:
Numerical Model Prediction - Tropical Tidbits

I really hope that's an outlier, and does not come to fruition, however...this IS the Navy, and I believe they've come to learn a few things about weather and storms.
 
Lobstah said:
Well...I'm not sure what to tell you, you seem to think I'm making all of this up?

Here's a forecast map from NHC. This "cone" has shifted considerably West over the past 24hrs.
When I look at this, Miami is seems to be within the cone of probability. Is it 20%?...30%??...don't know, and really don't care. The point is just that I think folks in FL/GA/SC/NC need to be aware that the forecasts on this, especially the track, are very dynamic.
Hurricane MATTHEW
Click to expand...

No, I just caution about implications that it's a the preponderant theory at this point and the statement you didn't agree with either saying ALL members. I agree everyone seems to be aware even if it doesn't make land in the US. Right now, I think the odds are very bad for the Bahamas and better for some areas on the coast. South Florida isn't in the NOAA cone now even. Notice Miami outside it. Still, living in Fort Lauderdale (or if I was in Miami), I'm not making any assumptions that anyone knows what it will do. As long as it's alive and south of us, I'll follow it closely.

Interestingly, the current projected path is right in line with the vast majority of October 3, 4 and 5's that originated where it did. One went to LA and the others have primarily made US landfall in the SC/NC area. Another thing is that they've been 4's leading up to landfall and strong 3's when they've hit. Also, they've remained hurricanes (CAT 1) all the way through Lake Ontario.

One person says the consensus has moved east and another says west. Either way the accuracy of forecasts 4 and 5 days out is not good. It's definitely a major storm to follow closely.
 
Lobstah said:
"Folks..Navy Model now has Matthew INLAND southern Florida....stay alert and ready folks.............."

This model is called NAVGEM, it's available on Levi's tropicaltidbits page:
Numerical Model Prediction - Tropical Tidbits

I really hope that's an outlier, and does not come to fruition, however...this IS the Navy, and I believe they've come to learn a few things about weather and storms.
Click to expand...

I'm missing something going to that link. Please help. What it takes me to is a prediction of precipitation. What then to get to the hurricane forecast? I'm just missing where it shows Matthew inland in southern FL. Perhaps I just don't know where to find it on that page.
 
The keys

Winds here in the keys are expected to be 20-35 mph with higher gust Tuesday nite thru Friday morning. Got a mooring in boot key if it turns towards Florida and have secured boat and property here at harbour Cay club. Hope it goes out to sea after Haiti but that is unlikely,. Hope for the best and pray for those in its path.
 

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BandB said:
I'm missing something going to that link. Please help. What it takes me to is a prediction of precipitation. What then to get to the hurricane forecast? I'm just missing where it shows Matthew inland in southern FL. Perhaps I just don't know where to find it on that page.
Click to expand...

It's probably not carrying the link correctly.

Go to the main page at tropicaltidbits.com and on the top bar, click on forecast models.
Then click on the Global drop down, and select NAVGEM, then hit Play.
Actually takes the eye up pretty close to Atlanta?
Has to be way out to lunch...but still pretty scary to watch.
 
Deckape said:
Hope it goes out to sea after Haiti but that is unlikely,. Hope for the best and pray for those in its path.
Click to expand...

I'm scared of the loss of lives that could occur in Haiti. The monetary loss there won't sound like much in the US but lives are far more important than dollars. Also, getting reports from Haiti may be very delayed. I hope they are better prepared than I believe they are.
 
Deckape said:
Winds here in the keys are expected to be 20-35 mph with higher gust Tuesday nite thru Friday morning. Got a mooring in boot key if it turns towards Florida and have secured boat and property here at harbour Cay club. Hope it goes out to sea after Haiti but that is unlikely,. Hope for the best and pray for those in its path.
Click to expand...

I think (hope?) that you're far enough South to miss the impact, no matter what it does.
 
BandB said:
I'm missing something going to that link. Please help. What it takes me to is a prediction of precipitation. What then to get to the hurricane forecast? I'm just missing where it shows Matthew inland in southern FL. Perhaps I just don't know where to find it on that page.
Click to expand...

If you use the top arrow buttons it walks it through in 6 hr increments. After the first few, the storm comes into view then tracks pretty much through the middle of FLA.
 
BandB said:
I'm scared of the loss of lives that could occur in Haiti. The monetary loss there won't sound like much in the US but lives are far more important than dollars. Also, getting reports from Haiti may be very delayed. I hope they are better prepared than I believe they are.
Click to expand...

One of the bloggers posted about conditions there post-earthquake, and said that there are large parts of some population centers that are still living in tents.

160mph, in a TENT, w/up to 40" of rain? Could be a disaster of never-before-seen proportions down there.
 
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