Is it time to liquidate your investments?

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Liquidated 50% and still happy with that decision. One day I think I shouldn't have liquidated and the next day I think I should have done 100% so seems like I'm happy with what I did. Probably been a good move on half the stocks and bad on half of them so far. Perhaps a smarter move would have been moving into different stocks but the stock market isn't my area of expertise.

Meanwhile we've made huge investments in more retail stores, moving in a totally opposite direction from the general view. We will acquire or open 25% more new stores in 2020 than in our biggest previous year. Now, many of the store openings were defensive measures but you can either let what is going on in the market destroy you or you can seek solutions. Our wholesale business has been threatened by the problems of Bloomingdales, Macy's, Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus, Belk, Dillards, Saks, Hudson Bay, Ann Taylor, The Loft, and Lord and Taylor (closed) so we added stores to pick up the business and made our first overseas sales to Germany and Australia.

In the failure of many and the bankruptcies filed, what gets lost is those adding. Right now, just look at the growth of Amazon, Walmart, Target, the success stories of Lowes, Home Depot, Tractor Supply and Ace, the increases by Dollar General and Dollar Tree, growth by At Home, Five Below and the acquisitions by Simon, Brookfield and Authentic Brands in acquiring Forever 21, Brooks Brothers, Lucky Brand (all this after previously acquiring Aeropostale) and now about to acquire JC Penney.

I always remind myself that for every seller, there is a buyer or no transaction takes place. We constantly must look around and reexamine things. I feel horribly for restaurants in this time but then I ask them one thing. As you saw Doordash, Grubhub, Postmates and others building a lot of delivery business and charging you amounts that hurt you, why didn't you move quickly into doing your own deliveries. Why did only Pizza restaurants grasp that so firmly that delivery and pickup work. We deliver from every one of our retail stores and 95% is in our own vehicles.

I feel for every business hit by the pandemic and struggling. I know many had trouble paying their rent, but then I know that 99% of all landlords negotiated with tenants for reduced rents. Malls are dead I read but yet Simon only collected 40% or so of their rents during some months and still made money during second quarter.

Yes, the economy has been horribly hurt during the pandemic and many businesses destroyed, but the American people aren't going to stop shopping, aren't going to stop wearing clothes, aren't going to stop buying furniture.

I'll cite one example of pandemic success that may surprise some. Second Quarter of 2020 vs. same quarter of 2019. Online sales at acehardware.com were up 493%. So, what happened to physical stores? Same store sales were up 35.3%.

Now I'm horrified by the unemployment and those not technically unemployed but greatly underemployed. I hope we step up to help all. I'm even more concerned about the floodgates opening on evictions and foreclosures. For all those given reprieves for months the day of reckoning is coming and, as of now, there is no plan to aid any of them.

There are segments of our population badly hurt as those 50 and older who have lost jobs due to the pandemic aren't being hired by those adding so many employees. Not by Amazon warehouses or to work retail for grocers or Walmart. I looked at our own numbers. We've received over 20,000 applications in 2020. Fewer than 3% have come from those over 50. I understand 55 year olds don't want to sew in plants or work retail in apparel. But we must address their situation. I fear we'll see a great increase of those taking social security at 62 and living on far less through retirement.

I know I've strayed off track as we talk about investments but ultimately it all ties together and we invest in stocks, in businesses, but we must invest as well in our people and we have more people in pain and hurting financially and scared of the future than ever in my lifetime. I'm happy we've been able to hire 2100 people this year, even though very little compared to Amazon, Walmart, and Target and such. However, I'm bothered by the reminder that the vast majority of those have been under $50,000 a year with a disproportionate number starting between $30,000 and $40,000.

As to investments in the market and what to do, I still have no idea. I still expect a very large downturn, but then I already expected that and it's not happened as I thought it would. In investments I follow conventional wisdom and worry as opposed to business where I'm a contrarian and defy the crowd noise. So looks like on investments I'll end up half right, just have no idea which half yet.
 
There is always a nugget in your stuff BandB.
A lot of the "ordinary middle class" over 50 crowd is not only having employability issues, I'm hearing from some that many items on their grocery lists have gone up by 50-100% in 3-4 months.

My sitting still accomplished about the same results as yours, but I'm more at ease with not being a player and a big hit will not hurt all that much.

What has intrigued me through this past while has been the near predictable daily metronome of the markets and a steady upward move. Ahead two, back one, tic tock.

Maybe that's what drives Captmikem?
 
I'm of the mind cash is the worst thing to have right now, knowing how it will depreciate over the next decade like it did after the 2008 federal debacle. I'm sticking with a diversified stock portfolio and real estate holdings . If I could afford to buy HUD type housing, I would be interested in that , too.
 
This reminds me of another forum discussion from about 10 years ago, something to the effect of all the oil will be gone in 10 years and fuel would be $8 to $10 a gallon. A lot of great comments and good speculation, just do what you think is right for you, individuals can be smart but "people" are dumb most of the time. Right now the market is doing good, you can all thank me, I upped my 401K contribution to 18% in February to try to buy low...so it will keep climbing to minimize my gains.
 
This reminds me of another forum discussion from about 10 years ago, something to the effect of all the oil will be gone in 10 years and fuel would be $8 to $10 a gallon. A lot of great comments and good speculation, just do what you think is right for you, individuals can be smart but "people" are dumb most of the time. Right now the market is doing good, you can all thank me, I upped my 401K contribution to 18% in February to try to buy low...so it will keep climbing to minimize my gains.

You can't go wrong with maximizing your 401K contributions, especially if you are over 50 and there is any level of company match.
 
You can't go wrong with maximizing your 401K contributions, especially if you are over 50 and there is any level of company match.

I am only 48 and company matches up to 4%. I have been pumping in to my 401K for the last 14 years with my current company and their match, and now ramping it up as much as I can because I want to retire in 9 years at the latest.
 
I'm of the mind cash is the worst thing to have right now, knowing how it will depreciate over the next decade like it did after the 2008 federal debacle. I'm sticking with a diversified stock portfolio and real estate holdings . If I could afford to buy HUD type housing, I would be interested in that , too.

You could certainly say that cash is no way to 'make' money,
but for the 8 years after 2008 inflation averaged less than 2%.
Not too bad for an actual depression event. And not much worse since 2016.

Agree about the market and real estate.
 
You could certainly say that cash is no way to 'make' money,
but for the 8 years after 2008 inflation averaged less than 2%.
Not too bad for an actual depression event. And not much worse since 2016.

Agree about the market and real estate.


Anecdote:


2006 i bought a top of the line diesel truck for $42K OTD
2016 I bought a top of the line diesel truck for $68K OTD


The trucks are nearly identical. What changed $26K other than the value of the dollar?
 
I mentioned FSLY and ZM. They have doubled since my June 2 mention. I said then that I had no intention of getting out of the market but that I would be moving money around carefully. I still stand by my statement that index funds have to much risk and to little reward at present. Recently REITs have taken a terrible beating. They are starting to look like a value but you need to be very careful which REIT. I still like multi family, warehouse, public storage and industrial REITs. I am still worried about REITs that are Retail oriented and I have never been comfortable with mortgage backed REITs but they are paying 8 to 10%.

I am expecting a very volatile fall, a crash a recovery and new highs in the future.
 
Anecdote:


2006 i bought a top of the line diesel truck for $42K OTD
2016 I bought a top of the line diesel truck for $68K OTD


The trucks are nearly identical. What changed $26K other than the value of the dollar?

Since you bought both trucks, maybe you can supply the invoices for both.
At least show us the window stickers. I know I always save mine.

We don't disagree that inflation exists but I don't think it is the whole story here.
Inflation is cumulative. 2% per year for 10 years is almost 22%.
In your example $42K(1.22)= $51.2K.

The rest is probably because the two trucks are actually far from 'identical'.
And what about your negotiating skills?
 
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The first truck is 4 years gone. If you don't believe me I ont really care. Im not going to waste my time proving to you I'm honest.
 
And if you doubt my negotiating skills wouldnt they be the same or better after 10 years?
 
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The first truck is 4 years gone. If you don't believe me I ont really care. Im not going to waste my time proving to you I'm honest.

I believe that you believe you are being honest.

I think your statement that 2 vehicles manufactured 10 years apart are
'virtually identical' is based more on belief than on the actual facts of the matter.

There are likely many changes and factory upgrades over those years that you simply
may not have noticed or even cared about.

As the saying goes: extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
 
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And if you doubt my negotiating skills wouldnt they be the same or better after 10 years?

Good question but I notice that I have a skill or two that have faded over the years.
Then there is the possibility that you saw a truck that looked and felt 'right' and
were in the financial position to just buy it without hesitation. I have done this, too.
 
Good question but I notice that I have a skill or two that have faded over the years.
Then there is the possibility that you saw a truck that looked and felt 'right' and
were in the financial position to just buy it without hesitation. I have done this, too.


Another example of the USD buying power fading.

gold_15_year_o_usd_x.png
 
For me the real threat is inflation combined with the fed closing the faucet. Cash is not something I want to have an abundance of when I know inflation is going up. Some kind of asset that I understand fully. The fed is buying everything under the sun right now including etf’s. With 0 % interest rates and funding the interbank lending. What happens when they stop?

Bud
 
"The fed is buying everything under the sun right now including etf’s. With 0 % interest rates and funding the interbank lending. What happens when they stop?"

One possibility is the borrowers will go bankrupt.

What is unusual is most countries have been doing the same money creation.

Hard assets is the usual reaction to money printing , but since most was bought in the open it will be ,even easier for the for Uncle to confiscate gold yet again.
 
... but since most was bought in the open it will be ,even easier for the for Uncle to confiscate gold yet again.

I was keeping my ingots on the boat as no one would to think to look there. Unfortunately I was washing them on the swim platform one day and they fell into the water.

Durn it Mr. Officer sir.
 
I haven't read this entire thread. But I am a little shocked at all of the doom and gloom. I don't view a downturn in the market as something to fear. I view it as an opportunity. I also am a little shocked that some of the people on here that portray an image of wealth are down double digits. I am up 32% in this market because I bought all the way down. No panic. Hell I'd be happy to see another rollercoaster ride if it turns back up again like this one did. You can even let other people do the work for you in a market index mutual fund. Yes they are down right now. But if you kept investing all the way down then the dollar cost averaging will be in your favor on the way back up.
 
I agree, Baker.
This summer has been an amazing ride and may it continue.

I think having more people at home online has stimulated the markets.
I keep a good percentage of my IRA in a S&P500 index fund that does pretty well.

The correction will surely come so I've been keeping a close watch.
 
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"Make dollar cost averaging your bitch"!!!!

I have a friend that is a little more hands on and he is up over 50%. The trick is not to "buy and hold". It is to keep buyING and hold. A good approach would be to buy "methodically"...even if it is a maket indexed fund....and just keep buyING! When you add fear to the equation, we have a tendency to buy high and sell low....exactly what we don't want to do. Anyway, y'all know this but it is tough to practice if you fear a downturn versus being encouraged by one.
 
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I haven't read this entire thread. But I am a little shocked at all of the doom and gloom. I don't view a downturn in the market as something to fear. I view it as an opportunity. I also am a little shocked that some of the people on here that portray an image of wealth are down double digits. I am up 32% in this market because I bought all the way down. No panic. Hell I'd be happy to see another rollercoaster ride if it turns back up again like this one did. You can even let other people do the work for you in a market index mutual fund. Yes they are down right now. But if you kept investing all the way down then the dollar cost averaging will be in your favor on the way back up.

While we are still up overall, I still anticipate a down turn that won't recover quickly.
 
Another example of the USD buying power fading.

gold_15_year_o_usd_x.png
What is interesting about the price of gold is that it is a relatively limited commodity.
Increasing the demand for a limited commodity - which is what is happening to gold
now - is having the effect of driving up the price regardless of the USD inflation.

An ever increasing number of people who want gold will sustain the increasing price,
even if the value of the dollar remains the same.

This doesn't happen with easily produced goods at the same rate, at least. Instead of the
400% increase in the price of gold we see less than 40% increase in the price of other goods.

In my opinion the real inflation is in population.
 
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The market being so "up" makes little sense. The economy is being supported by Govts everywhere pumping $ into it, though where that $ comes from is a mystery, ? MMT). Markets seem to be in denial, I don`t get it,and suspect that at some point, the current "goldilocks" situation will fall away, revealing a reality we may not enjoy.
 
I haven't read this entire thread. But I am a little shocked at all of the doom and gloom. I don't view a downturn in the market as something to fear. I view it as an opportunity. I also am a little shocked that some of the people on here that portray an image of wealth are down double digits. I am up 32% in this market because I bought all the way down. No panic. Hell I'd be happy to see another rollercoaster ride if it turns back up again like this one did. You can even let other people do the work for you in a market index mutual fund. Yes they are down right now. But if you kept investing all the way down then the dollar cost averaging will be in your favor on the way back up.

Simply put, agreed. Unless this market defies all the rules established over the past 75 years, it always recovers, and goes higher than it was before. Recoveries are always slower than drops. Gains average 10% over a 10 year period.

Drops are buying opportunities, I see them as clouds with silver linings. If there is a contested election, and it almost seems a certainty at this point, the market will almost certainly drop, markets don't like uncertainty.

Your retirement and investment timeline, especially available recovery time, and risk tolerance, are all key factors, and they are different for everyone's individual circumstances, so there is no such thing as one size fits all investment advice, what works for a 35 year old investor, doesn't work for a 60 year old investor.
 
I Agree Steve,
Best move I ever made was at retirement shifting all my deferred compensation mutual fund investments to fixed interest rate investments in my case bonds. Very nice watch positive figures in my quarterly account while the real estate crash around 98-2000 was putting funds in the loss column. :)
 
The market being so "up" makes little sense. The economy is being supported by Govts everywhere pumping $ into it, though where that $ comes from is a mystery, ? MMT). Markets seem to be in denial, I don`t get it,and suspect that at some point, the current "goldilocks" situation will fall away, revealing a reality we may not enjoy.

You underestimate the adaptability of the US market. Places like Amazon and Netflix are BOOMING because of what is going on. Capitalism has a way of looking for opportunity where none seems to exist. So I disagree with your "market in denial" theory. It just doesn't make sense to you because all you see is what you want to see....doom and gloom. There are many sectors that are booming because of it. And most (professional)investors see it. ANd while the market is down YTD, it isn't by much. ANd if you bought on the way down then you are most certainly ahead.
 
You underestimate the adaptability of the US market. Places like Amazon and Netflix are BOOMING because of what is going on. Capitalism has a way of looking for opportunity where none seems to exist. So I disagree with your "market in denial" theory. It just doesn't make sense to you because all you see is what you want to see....doom and gloom. There are many sectors that are booming because of it. And most (professional)investors see it....
Au contraire, I take a balanced view of the markets and the economy. Time will tell. Maybe it`s different here, savings are up, spending is down,people are watching and waiting and playing safe.
Do you see the current situation as way better than 2008. It might be, if we see "cure and snapback". Unlike the GFC which affected us very little, this financial event depends on disease resolution to begin recovery. I do think corporations and markets are currently artificially maintained by Govt handouts and some mesmerized investors. Presumably you would say B & B was greatly mistaken selling down 50% of stockholding as( I `d assume) a move to safety.
I don`t follow US dividends,presumably Amazon and Netflix are increasing theirs proportionate with their "BOOMING" business, but here they are down. Banks for example were "asked" to halve dividends. We may very well have different trading conditions to yours.
I applaud your unbridled confidence.Are you buying up airline stock? Should be cheap buying right now.
 
Thing is my silent partner ,uncle Sam, Takes half of my net causing me not to sell anything. I can ride the market half way down and only be down 25 percent. The whole design is setup that you die and give it to the kids and while your alive you buy new boats, motorhomes and BMWs and try to not make any money.
 
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