New boat sales falling...

[psneeld]

Yeah... if you think a recession's coming (or secretly has already arrived), keep it to yourself, short the S&P & buy a nice big yacht for cheap in 18 months with the proceeds.

Even worse predicting the markets than discussing politics and world events...the market experts are more wrong than right...and people complain about weathermen who predict better than most market analysts.

 

[PhilPB]

I'm glad we bought our slip a few years ago. The rents that the marinas are getting in our area now are ridiculous. We were lucky

 

[twistedtree]

I have been asking myself the same question these last couple of weeks, but then I came to the realisation that I may as well do no maintenance than have it done by amateurs ?

In the yard where I am now the majority of the workers have no formal education at all. They are learning on the job and their bosses charge me a Western European hourly fee eventhough these workers have zero knowledge or experience.

I came here with a small leakage on the depth meter, company came in to make the repair, charged a nice sum or money, boat goes into the water and guess what ? Leaks even harder, so haul out again (1100 USD) and in the end I sent all the workers away, did it myself.

Same is for the steering pumps. Small job which was turned into a 12.000 USD damage by one company through sheer incompetence of the workers.



So what am I supposed to do now ? I have epoxy work that needs to be done on the port deck, but should I trust anyone with that ? Why would I pay 30.000 USD to find out they messed it up ?

In the mean time my stance towards maintenance companies has become a lot tougher. Every company that agrees to work on my boat will have to sign a contract in which is clearly stated they will pay for any damage they cause and that is without any delay or need to go to a court. Also they will pay me the berthing fees for every day they are late. If they tell me they will be finished on the 10th then every day after that is on their tab, I am not paying that anymore, basta with that.



Knowing that Dutch ship building is top level I have now come to the point where I am willing to fly in mechanics from the Netherlands to repair my boat in Greece, Croatia or Montenegro. In the end that is cheaper than having amateurs ruin my boat. Plus, if I can do it myself.........I will do so. But, as we all know, we get older, are not so flexible anymore, so crawling in the ER is more or less a thing of the past. I can do it, but then I need 3 days to recover

This is what will ultimately end it for me, but hopefully not for a while yet. As soon as I need to starting hiring out the bulk of the work, that will be the end of it. The frustration and obscene costs will take the fun out of it. I’m happy to pay for fun, but I won’t pay for torture.

 

[socalrider]

I'm glad we bought our slip a few years ago. The rents that the marinas are getting in our area now are ridiculous. We were lucky

I didn't know buying a slip was even a thing. In SoCal I don't believe it's possible anywhere, though in Newport or Catalina you can buy a mooring.

I feel lucky to have a mooring in America's Cup Harbor. Prices are fixed by the Port Authority so not subject to supply and demand. Only downside is that I'm surrounded by derelict boats!

 

[Simi 60]

This is what will ultimately end it for me, but hopefully not for a while yet. As soon as I need to starting hiring out the bulk of the work, that will be the end of it. The frustration and obscene costs will take the fun out of it. I’m happy to pay for fun, but I won’t pay for torture.

I'm thinking this years lift will be our last in Australia
Time to head to South East Asia.

 

[Ric]

The other elephant in the room is the fact that many TF-style boats are owned by Boomers, and the Great Pruning is underway. Meanwhile, fewer and fewer young folk are growing up boating and dreaming of exploring waterways on their own boats. The used boat inventory is only going to grow larger, and the new boats more expensive as the builders attempt to cram every possible shoreside convenience onboard to appeal to a clientele with minimal prior boating experience. And on top of this, there are the limitations placed on marina construction or expansion and Draconian anchoring restrictions or prohibitions. All of these factors will reduce the incentive to buy a boat -- a pricey new one because of the cost of purchase and the trouble with finding a berth, and an affordable used one because they are old enough that you can't easily insure them.

 

[kthoennes]

Yep, we've touched on that angle before too. As hard as I try to turn my boys into resourceful boat mechanics, it's way more than just that. I often think owning a big(ger) boat is shockingly expensive and complex on multiple levels -- mechanical, electrical, plumbing, routine maintenance, parts replacement, state registration (boat and dinghy), FCC station license, federal documentation, insurance, berthing, annual pulling and launching, charts updates to the nav systems, you name it. My boys might be able to do an oil and filter change and be a notch above their peers in boat systems, but that's just the beginning. How many people are going to want to hassle with everything that comes with buying, operating, feeding and maintaining a bigger boat? Our marina just did a major expansion, but the net-additional slips are all small (trailerable). I tend to think if you can't easily trailer your boat to a shop, or have enough money to buy something really expensive and huge, that middle band of boat owners between say, not-reasonably-trailerable to purchase prices in seven or eight figures (or more), will gradually decline. You either do a driveway boat or have enough money to hire everything done for you, with not many in between.

 

[MichaelD]

Interesting thread. It seems simple to me. Boat market took off due to people escaping Covid lockdowns. COVID’s over so the market is softening, if not collapsing. There are more boats than slips and everything else about boats is numbingly expensive. So, more softening. I’m wondering if I can recover anything recover anything close to purchase price for mine.

 

[SteveK]

I’m wondering if I can recover anything recover anything close to purchase price for mine.

Maybe in a few years, not this or next year.
Just enjoy while you can.

 

[Delta Riverat]

I don't worry about resale value. I've been losing dough on boats from day 1.

I am happy to have a 50 foot covered berth for $375/mo. Especially since there are no more.

 

[PhilPB]

I have never owned a boat that was sold for anything close to what I had put into it. A boat is not an investment

 

[Cargile]

My father lives in Stuart, FL, one of the big boating centers of the US. I've talked with him repeatedly about trying to find somebody even halfway competent to fly to South Dakota for a few days to knock out even a portion of my 42 item to-do list. I'd pay plane fare, hotel, drive him back and forth to Yankton from the airport, and pay his daily charge of course. Big problem though, there are no marine stores for hundreds of miles, so if he needed any parts at all, it's all mail order. That may kill the arrangement right there. Heck, I'd even fly my dad up and pay him but he just got a new knee. Lack of service techs, or astronomical service charges, is not going to encourage boat ownership either long term. Especially when:View attachment 141888

Unless you are on the upstream side of the dam how about a road (water) trip?

 

[Hippocampus]

My reality. I’m trying to find a slip or even a storm rated mooring for the summer of 2024 anyplace in RI. So far without success. Boats currently in Deltaville VA and we’re in MA so can’t work on it myself. Insurance jumped $500/yr although we are never in the zone during hurricane season and have never had a claim.
Think my situation is not unusual.
Factors
Berthing availability- think this will only decline. For mom and pop yards it’s take the money and run. Either kids don’t want the business (Brewers sold to safe harbor) or as yard owners age out that big check from a chain or condo developer is too appealing. Seems to be more profit with a lot less hassles (toxic wastes, staffing, liability, dead beat debt etc.) with a wet slip/dry stack yard than with a full service yard. This impacts 36’-55’ more than small boats and mega yachts. In other words us.
Expense-regardless of where you boat to some degree you are placed in the pool paying for the underwriting of the insurance offered everywhere by your vendor. Insurance companies make their money on their investing the money they hold. As long as premiums are sufficient to cover payouts and investment portfolio is black they’re profitable. However money from premiums can be gotten cheaper from sources other than boat insurance and sometimes from non premium sources. They are currently disincentivized from staying in the boat insurance market. They are strongly incentivized to have more restrictions to limit risk. Net effect is higher premiums and fewer vendors.
As mentioned above simple supply/demand raises service costs.
So COO rise has accepted significantly. Think this rather than purchase price is instrumental in peoples decision to sell or not buy. Hence supply demand is causing a increasingly soft market.

 

[hmason]

Our marina rented out many slips to seasonals; 6 months in FL to escape the NE. Those days have ended. If you want a seasonal slip now you must pay as an annual renter. And while you're away the marina can rent your empty slip and "double dip." Our marina is now in the process of being sold to one of the biggies. I don't suspect rates will decrease.

 

[Hippocampus]

Think Florida is one of the few areas which is different.

Costs and availability are so absurd people are looking for alternatives. Add in insurance difficulties and costs of living people start to think twice. Unless you’re in the very high rent neighborhoods population density and absence of anything green or alive and not a human makes it seem you’re in a city.


Northern Florida is climatically similar to GA and SC but more expensive and stressful Southern Florida is truly sub tropical but too many people and way too expensive. Seems some marinas figure (like with personal vehicles) large means more profit with less aggravation. Deal with professional captains and deep pocket owners. But that’s the over 60’+ crowd not us. So even looking a year in advance there was no room at the inn two times now.

Would think given a boat is a mobile asset southern Florida will eventually price themselves out or recurring named storms with inadequate dry storage will make it more of a seasonal boating spot. You see winter in the islands summers in the med or Maine. and Florida becoming less desirable for the over 60’ crowd already

Howard is truly lucky. Really like Steward. Much nicer for us than Miami/ft Lauderdale for us.

 

[PhilPB]

Being in the South Florida area I found that the only way to get affordable dockage was to buy our slip. We have an HOA that governs the property, full time marina manager and staff and the marina is recognized as a "hurricane hole" so we don't have to leave if there is a storm and insurance recognizes that designation , where we don't have to haul the boat in a storm as well as getting a discount on our policy. Also, being that the marina is privately owned, we actually own the property that is our slip, opposed to being allowed to dock our boat where the Army Corps of Engineers approves, and can recind that approval and you will be left without a slip. By owning our slip, the cost to carry is about 1/2-1/3 of the cost to rent one out.

 

[Nick14]

My reality. I’m trying to find a slip or even a storm rated mooring for the summer of 2024 anyplace in RI. So far without success.
Think my situation is not unusual.

FWIW, I put my name on about a dozen wait lists 3 years ago. Literally almost every marina on Narragansett Bay (east and west sides). Last winter I got a call from New England Boatworks East Passage in Middletown about one slip coming available (everyone ahead of me on the wait list must have passed for some reason) and I took it.

In retrospect it was an expensive option to take, since my new boat hasn't arrived yet and I paid for the entire season and had no use out of the slip.

I've heard of others doing similar things, getting on waitlists, waiting for some number of years, and then ending up paying for an unused slip for some period of time. At least for the moment demand for slips on Narragansett Bay exceeds supply. Some people might be getting out of boating, but it seems people are getting out of the marina business even faster.

Some marinas weren't interested in even putting me on a wait list. When I asked one how long the wait might be, he snarkily said 'you won't live long enough'. Some places said the wait would probably be 5+ years.

FWIW I think you would have better luck looking for a slip for the entire season (or year, depending on how the marina works) rather than just part of it.

Good luck!

 

[kthoennes]

That situation might not be that unusual. Even here, we put ourselves on the marina waiting list a year before we bought our boat, and then paid for an empty slip for half a season before we took delivery.

 

[tiltrider1]

Part of the issue is slip size. 50’ and up is very difficult in the PNW and it gets more difficult the bigger you need. Fortunately I have a slip. Now that I am retired I want a slip further out of town. Two marinas have closed their wait list. The third marina added me to the list and that was four years ago. Looks like I might get a call in two years based on the rate of advancement.

 

[SteveK]

Point Roberts WA lost a lot of Canadian boats during/after covid. Anyone know if they have vacancies? Not looking, just curious.

 

[Slowmo]

Falling boat sales is hardly a surprise. First during CoVID we had a spike in sales of boats and RVs. You would expect sales to fall as that spike passes. Second, interest rates have increased significantly, making financing of boats that much more expensive. Third, while economists may debate recession the economic fact is economic growth adjusted for inflation has been negative for the past six quarters. All this leads to a less positive market for luxury goods such as boats, RVs, and vacation homes. The vacation home market is beginning to show weakness as well. There is always a lag in these cycles so it takes time to show uphis but this has played out multiple times in my life. Personally I believe the other factors such as marina space, insurance, and changing demographics are secondary to the macro economic drivers.

 

[PierreR]

Baby boomers have peaked and the first one's into the retirement market are getting out.

 

[socalrider]

Third, while economists may debate recession the economic fact is economic growth adjusted for inflation has been negative for the past six quarters.

Not sure where you got this info, but attached for reference is the last 3 years of real (inflation adjusted) quarterly GDP. 22Q1 and 22Q2 are slightly negative, all other quarters are positive. The economy has been on a tear since then.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

Interesting discussion; I am reminded a bit of the old Groucho Marx line about a restaurant: "nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded."

The marina space shortage is a real issue, but it speaks to the number of people still holding on to the dream, not people getting out of boating. Since I've had a boat (10 years) slip fees have gone up maybe 50%, waiting list times have stayed the same or increased, and the percentage of boats which are used regularly seems to be remaining constant at approximately 0.0001%

 

[sunchaser]

The US economy remains surprisingly robust. Qualified workers in the marine trades are in short supply and when coupled with moorage shortages the joy in “trawler” boating is vastly diminished over the last decade or two.

For some the use of money covers many sins. Good marine services and high priced moorage is available if one is established with a good yard. The guy who just bought our boat is building a boat house for it in an expanding marina.

The market for out board powered vessels in the 25-40 foot range is strong. Older “trawlers” not selling doesn’t mean the boat market is in tough shape. It means these vessels have possibly lost appeal.

Once or if Selenes, Nordhavns, Flemings, Helmsman, etc sales start to suffer then I’d become a believer that the “trawler” market is softening.

 

[Adopo]

Broker I trust today said it’s really slowed, not just the usual slow down. And I don’t trust much that comes out of this plantain republic.

 

[SteveK]

Sunchaser said "Good marine services and high priced moorage is available if one is established with a good yard."

I wonder if the future brings about, you use our yard, you go to the head of the line for moorage. DIY not welcome.

 

[Hippocampus]

Think the above posts reflect the dearth of actual cruisers. Through out my life the mantra was”just get out there”. The joy was to explore new places by water. You’d leave for a weekend, a week or a season and wander. You’d pick a direction and multiple possible landfalls and head out. You’d have a sense of freedom.
Now even with Dockwa, marinalife etc. much more planning is required even if you prefer to anchor out. To the extent to the extent the days of “honey let’s go to the boat today and check out ….” are over. Boats mostly leave their berth and return to that berth. Cruising has gotten very difficult logistically.
For the last decade we’ve had a summer cruising grounds and access to a berth there and a winter cruising grounds and access to a berth there. Recently that’s gotten harder and harder to do. So far this year impossible. Maybe forced to abandon New England for summer. Just no room at the inn.

 

[rslifkin]

Think the above posts reflect the dearth of actual cruisers. Through out my life the mantra was”just get out there”. The joy was to explore new places by water. You’d leave for a weekend, a week or a season and wander. You’d pick a direction and multiple possible landfalls and head out. You’d have a sense of freedom.
Now even with Dockwa, marinalife etc. much more planning is required even if you prefer to anchor out. To the extent to the extent the days of “honey let’s go to the boat today and check out ….” are over. Boats mostly leave their berth and return to that berth. Cruising has gotten very difficult logistically.
For the last decade we’ve had a summer cruising grounds and access to a berth there and a winter cruising grounds and access to a berth there. Recently that’s gotten harder and harder to do. So far this year impossible. Maybe forced to abandon New England for summer. Just no room at the inn.

Try a summer in the Great Lakes. It still gets busy here in a lot of places, but not the same kind of busy as a lot of the east coast. The shoreline property demand and values and the resulting impacts to boating aren't quite the same here.

 

[Adopo]

Try a summer in the Great Lakes. It still gets busy here in a lot of places, but not the same kind of busy as a lot of the east coast. The shoreline property demand and values and the resulting impacts to boating aren't quite the same here.

I wanted to see the Great Lakes, so we just did the Viking Octantis, Milwaukee to Toronto. And although this is not the kind of cruising we are discussing on this form, it was just fabulous. I could not believe just how beautiful and vast the Great Lakes are. And the boat, just wow. It has to be one of the best boats its size. We liked it so much we may do the Antartica cruise.

What a boat. What surprised me was that I did not see that many cruisers. The only thing that really caught my eye were the lines of a 53 plus foot Huckins Linwood cruising into Mackinac Island one day while we were anchored off. Glorious site, classic lines with spray coming off the bow.

https://www.vikingcruises.com/expeditions/ships/viking-octantis.html

https://www.vikingcruises.com/exped...canada/niagara-and-the-great-lakes/index.html

 

[Comodave]

We spent about 5 weeks cruising this summer. No problems finding dockage. Our home slip is our home so no issues with DIY or prices, etc.