We've crossed the Dixon many times since 1996, first in a C-Dory 22, then a 26-footer, and the last few years a 37 Nordic Tug. It's all about weather conditions. Here's my writeup:
Crossing the Dixon Entrance between Prince Rupert and Ketchikan
We leave as soon as it's light enough to see wood on the water, and go slow at least until it's fully light. We go through Venn Passage coming out of PR - saves a lot of time, but we do need to follow the safe route carefully, especially as we round Tugwell Island heading out into Chatham Sound.
If conditions permit, we head from Venn diagonally across Chatham Sound toward Green Island, near the NE corner of Dundas Island, then across the open water to Tree Point, then sometimes to Foggy Bay for the night. If Revillagigedo Channel looks OK and I'm not too tired, we might skip Foggy Bay and head from Tree Point through Danger Passage (south of Mary Island), then between Ham and Walker islands, and on into Ketchikan. This is the shortest route, about 83 NM.
If non-trivial wind is from W or NW, we might cross Chatham Sound more quickly, come up along the east side of Dundas Island, and anchor in Brundige Inlet before crossing the most open water. If wind is from the Southeast and looks like it might be strong enough to bounce us a bit too much out in the middle of Chatham Sound, we stay along the east side of Chatham Sound, and cross the mouth of Portland Inlet. This is a longer route, but sometimes useful to protect from SE wind. There are a few places to anchor after crossing Portland Inlet, before we round Cape Fox and head up Revillagigedo Channel. Pond Bay on Duke Island is another useful anchorage, on the W side of Revillagigedo.
Here's how we analyze it, and decide if we're going to go. Tidal current direction vs wind direction is key.
First, the forecast should be 15 knots or less, for at least most of the duration between Prince Rupert and Ketchikan.
Second, conditions as reported at the Central Dixon Entrance buoy (Canadian WX, but also reported on US WX in Ketchikan), should be winds no more than 15 knots, seas no more than one meter.
Third, if winds are enough to pay attention to (like more than 10-12 knots), wind and tidal current directions should not be opposed when crossing the most open water, like in Chatham Sound heading up from PR, between Dundas Island and Cape Fox, or in Revillagigedo Channel up to about Mary Island. Depending on conditions, anywhere in these three areas could be challenging - wind vs current as the tide flows in and out can make seas twice as tall and much more vertical than they would be otherwise.
Sounds a little complicated, but if you're willing to wait a day or three you can usually find conditions that meet most of these criteria. On 2-3 occasions, always on the way back south, we've had to wait 5 or even 7 days . Depends somewhat on your tolerance for bouncing around. Most other places in SE AK are not as complicated to figure.
In 2017 for the first time I started using windy.com and predictwind.com. They give far more granular detailed forecasts than NOAA and Environment Canada, in more specific locations and in timing. Crossing the Dixon is a particularly good situation for them.
. Also Cadillac Mt., which on the east coast passes for the highest peak there, is but a small hillock out west.
