We have owned 23 boats and we have never complained that the boat was too big. Always wish it was a bit bigger... The cost between a 44 and a 49 will be negligible. But the cost in buying a too small boat will be huge and ongoing. Go with what you like.
Yep I learned that lesson first hand.
When I was overseas in the Persian Gulf I decided to have a boat built. But trying to save money, I built smaller and cheaper. My family and I had some wonderful life memories, especially with the kids growing up at that time, but the truth is that the boat never fulfilled my needs/wants and was always a bit disappointing for that reason.
So I disagree with that old sailor's adage "buy the smallest boat that does the job" - that may save money but often leads to disappointment.