Peter Ray's posting for the morning of Saturday, 8/29/15
Friends, Erika is coming. The peninsula of Florida will only get some squalls and the east cost of Florida and the USA - nothing.
FORECAST: Tropical Storm (TS) Erika is just off the southeastern tip of Cuba moving NW at 20 mph. Maximum wind winds are 40 mph. As TS Erika moves through Cuba it will weaken into a tropical depression, and the Lower Florida Keys should be prepared for a storm that is with msw of about 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph and rough seas. Then entering the warm Gulf, Erica will strengthen to a Tropical Storm and might even get to a Category 1 hurricane. The Big Bend area (including Cedar Key and South of Tallahassee should be prepared for a storm surge, magnitude of which will depend in part on the timing relative to the tides. At this point as Erika moves up the coast, landfall looks to be along the Gulf Coast. Probably Sunday afternoon or night I will know where. Just have to wait for it to clear Cuba. Again, its exact path will depend in part on its strength.
DISCUSSION: Cuba will really be hard on Erika as it is on all storms because of the central mountains. But the Gulf waters are near their maximum temperature and most hospitable. Erika is barely a TS now, and actually probably really is a Tropical depression. All depends on whether anything survives Cuba. The forecast is based on the assumption that Cuba does not "wipe out" Erika.
If you have coastal relatives along the Panhandle, and want to be cautious, I would take care of them. As mentioned, if Erika goes that far west, it could become a hurricane. I will know that tomorrow in the afternoon, and that would give you 4 days notice. Rain and some gusts is in Tallahassee's forecast for Wednesday. Will NOT interfere with the first FSU game.
NEXT FORECAST: THIS EVENING, Saturday night, Then Sunday Morning and as often
as new data is available as Erika approaches land.
Peter Ray