Boat Prices: Has the world changed????

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We were RV browsing a couple months ago at a mega dealer in Tampa. The wait for a service appointment for a Class A motorhome was 2 months if you were a premium customer (>$300K purchase from this dealer), and 4 months for others. The dealer has 90 service bays. I understand desirable "camping" sites - both transient and monthly - are scarce. It seems like the dramatic increase in new RVs the last 3 years has not been balanced by an increase in RV infrastructure. We decided to pass on an RV due to these barriers to utilization. Production of larger boats did not ramp like RVs. Certainly, long term marina slips are tight. We had no problem obtaining transient slips in our 2021 Loop cruise. Marine service providers were also available, albeit at higher prices.
 
I got out of boating and more heavy into RVing.

Both are in dire straits for service, transient/long term renting space, etc....

I saw boating as squeezing faster than boating.

But both have some room to wiggle if you time seasons and locations.
 
backinblue said:
A declining stock market and rising interest rates are very likely to affect home, boat, RV, car, motorcycle, etc prices. In fact, that is the intention of the Fed in trying to fight inflation. In the past 3 years I bought a used boat and a used car that are both worth more today than I paid for them. That is far from normal and will correct with time I'm sure.
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I agree. I know I paid more back in January when I bought the boat, but I also sold equities (at the peak) to buy the boat.

I made out pretty well - :) As it is now I would still have less net worth but I wouldn't have a boat because I hate selling stocks low.
 
Purchased our cool assss Tolly August 2008... economy was then in pretty poor shape. Also, due to the then ownership shuffle from her 90 + yr old OP's death and the boat's then restorer's divorce... the price was basically a steal. Especially due to the completed recent restoration of every portion on a previously well cared for Tollycraft.

During that 14 year period I also purchased, we used each at least for a while, and eventually sold four other boats. Each boat sold at a profit. One I kept for 12 years, one for three years and the other two were kept for a couple years each.

Regarding today's boat market: Put our Tolly [in completely clean, refreshed condition] on the market this July. Had a couple lookie lous... nothing serious. I dropped the price $5,000 in September - couple calls; nothing too serious. Guess I'll simply start over next April. So yes, it appears clear the boat sales market is no longer a seller's delight! :ermm:
 
Interesting op Ed in the NYT today. Although generally a liberal news outlet point was made a too rapid transformation to entirely alt energy would be destructive to the environment as well as people. The author isn’t known as a conservative (Ross Douhart) and the case made is consistent with liberal thinking. Although I’m not a progressive seems to be well thought out.
Reality is we need to be energy independent. Ideally each country should be. That would lower opportunities for geopolitical blackmail and decrease exploitation of energy rich areas who don’t have the capital to invest in development. There’s no doubt MMCC is a reality and must be addressed. However as recent history has shown current set up has increased income inequality. Those with sufficient capital are fairly well protected from inflation and market fluctuations. They will continue to buy boats. Those who are retired on fixed incomes and fairly fixed assets will withdraw from the market unless they take the attitude it just means less in my estate and I only have a few years left to boat. Those who have boats will continue to be less likely to sell until their boating years are over or they die or downsize. But fewer will downsize and even fewer upsize. So I think for the foreseeable future the market will be distorted. Fewer used cruising boats for sale which command silly money for what they are. More expensive new boats with longer wait times to final commissioning.
 
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Just called on a couple of Legacy downeast cruisers whose listings I've been following - both sold (even though Yachtworld still shows them as available). I guess decent boats are still moving.
 
Derek said:
Approx 10000 boomers a day retiring and looking to finally live their dream of travel, RV, Boating, etc. after Pandemic lots of people in the YOLO mode.
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Good points. It'll be interesting to see if people are still into trawler-style boats, or the new "Euro-style" boats I see everywhere are what new buyers want.

As for that article, it was basically just an advertisement for annuities, something I'd recommend novice investors against. Of course the commission on them is huge, so they're pushed pretty hard.
 
Nick14 said:
FWIW, predictions from a broker on the upcoming 2023 boat market:

https://boattest.com/article/2023-g...lAw&utm_content=244953292&utm_source=hs_email

His bottom line, the 2023 market will be 'more normal,' closer to what 2019 was like, but also not predicting major price drops.

The only guarantee with most forecasts is that they're likely to be wrong.
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Unless we have a major market collapse or a full scale recession, I tend to agree. The other unknown is fuel prices, and although still high, they seem to have stabilized.
 
backinblue said:
Unless we have a major market collapse or a full scale recession, I tend to agree. The other unknown is fuel prices, and although still high, they seem to have stabilized.
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Good points. A major recession and resulting stock market collapse would mean all bets are off. A lot of people probably won't feel so great about spending big bucks on a boat if their investment portfolios take a massive nosedive.

Fuel prices are something else. It's scary for me to think about the cost per mile to run the boat with diesel in the $5-$6/gal range. I predict (this one's more accurate!) a lot of short trips in the future. Prices may have stabilized, but they're still nightmarishly, insanely high by historical standards.

The other frightening thing about fuel and commodity prices in general is, they tend to not decrease. They often follow a stair-step progression with higher highs, and higher lows as well. I don't know if I'll live to ever see $3/gal diesel again (barring a major recession, in which case I won't be buying much of it anyway).
 
Nick14 said:
Good points. A major recession and resulting stock market collapse would mean all bets are off. A lot of people probably won't feel so great about spending big bucks on a boat if their investment portfolios take a massive nosedive.

Fuel prices are something else. It's scary for me to think about the cost per mile to run the boat with diesel in the $5-$6/gal range. I predict (this one's more accurate!) a lot of short trips in the future. Prices may have stabilized, but they're still nightmarishly, insanely high by historical standards.

The other frightening thing about fuel and commodity prices in general is, they tend to not decrease. They often follow a stair-step progression with higher highs, and higher lows as well. I don't know if I'll live to ever see $3/gal diesel again (barring a major recession, in which case I won't be buying much of it anyway).
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High fuel prices are a pain, but unstable fuel prices make it even worse. If prices are high but stable at least that's easy to plan for. Unstable prices make planning the cost of a trip much harder.
 
Boy, throughout these discussions (this thread and others), I still have this nagging feeling something is off. Something is just out of whack, something is "off" and I don't think it's greater caution and apprehension with my increasing age. Inflation is not 6-8% in the US, that's utter nonsense, it's far, far higher. My house value lately is absurd. Still can't find employees to fill vacancies. Fuel prices are still double (or whatever) that they were 24 months ago, and now that they've come down a little, we've gotten so used to it already we think it's normal. Public education in the US at least is appalling -- shockingly ineffective I mean. Never occurs to anybody that we ought to make up the lost COVID time in schools, oh no, can't do that. Consumer debt is setting records, but the boat and RV markets are still (generally) hot with long delivery times. We're still hitting very odd shortages, and now we almost think that's normal too (supermarkets ran out of yeast here again). I have this persistent feeling something is profoundly messed up with fundamental economics and normal life in general, popping off in different directions like somebody lit a whole box of loose bottle rockets all at once.

This post may seem like a hodgepodge of unrelated anxieties, but okay, I do have a coherent point. It takes financial resources, some technical expertise, personal resourcefulness and initiative and stability or steady persistence to own and operate bigger boats like ours. I don't see how that can be sustained long term. For example, I just finished our tax return. I'm a gov't bureaucrat so I probably have an advantage, and our tax situation is complex but certainly not as complex as others -- but I'd be very surprised if the average high schooler or even college kid could correctly complete our tax return. With all those trends or conditions, from conflicting economic stressors to poor education, today I'm thinking the bigger boat market -- I mean the market segment somewhere between trailer-able and superyachts -- is doomed long term. Market fundamentals are bouncing in different directions like a pinball machine with eight pinballs in play at the same time, and the coming generation (broadly speaking, individual exceptions aside) is lucky if they can change a broken door knob. I swing back and forth, but today I'm thinking the larger boat market (and lots of other things) are doomed.
 
kthoennes said:
Boy, throughout these discussions (this thread and others), I still have this nagging feeling something is off. Something is just out of whack, something is "off" and I don't think it's greater caution and apprehension with my increasing age. Inflation is not 6-8% in the US, that's utter nonsense, it's far, far higher. My house value lately is absurd. Still can't find employees to fill vacancies. Fuel prices are still double (or whatever) that they were 24 months ago, and now that they've come down a little, we've gotten so used to it already we think it's normal. Public education in the US at least is appalling -- shockingly ineffective I mean. Never occurs to anybody that we ought to make up the lost COVID time in schools, oh no, can't do that. Consumer debt is setting records, but the boat and RV markets are still (generally) hot with long delivery times. We're still hitting very odd shortages, and now we almost think that's normal too (supermarkets ran out of yeast here again). I have this persistent feeling something is profoundly messed up with fundamental economics and normal life in general, popping off in different directions like somebody lit a whole box of loose bottle rockets all at once.

This post may seem like a hodgepodge of unrelated anxieties, but okay, I do have a coherent point. It takes financial resources, some technical expertise, personal resourcefulness and initiative and stability or steady persistence to own and operate bigger boats like ours. I don't see how that can be sustained long term. For example, I just finished our tax return. I'm a gov't bureaucrat so I probably have an advantage, and our tax situation is complex but certainly not as complex as others -- but I'd be very surprised if the average high schooler or even college kid could correctly complete our tax return. With all those trends or conditions, from conflicting economic stressors to poor education, today I'm thinking the bigger boat market -- I mean the market segment somewhere between trailer-able and superyachts -- is doomed long term. Market fundamentals are bouncing in different directions like a pinball machine with eight pinballs in play at the same time, and the coming generation (broadly speaking, individual exceptions aside) is lucky if they can change a broken door knob. I swing back and forth, but today I'm thinking the larger boat market (and lots of other things) are doomed.
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I agree, something is off. I can’t figure it out either. There is a lot of money out there so I am not seeing the boat market going cold with our current market. A 30% drop in the market could create a big recession and then we will see price drops and a stronger labor supply.

The car market looks in trouble and those who can buy cars for cash are going to have a good year. For most people buying a car is going to be more expensive. I am unable to understand the current house market. It certainly has gotten more normal but I am not seeing massive price drops. Same with boats, while more normal it certainly isn’t back to normal.

My perdition for the future is 50/50. 50% chance of getting better and 50% chance of getting worse. This probably means things will stay the same.
 
On the one hand many employers are having trouble finding employees, on the other there are massive layoffs in some sectors like Twitter, now google.

In the past few years people were buying homes at inflated prices and will hold out at least a year before accepting that they overpaid and will lose a lot of equity before prices start to tumble.

Variable rate mortgages for some 20 years paid off in lower overall interest. Now in less than 5 years the monthly payments are not covering the interest.

Boats are toys, a luxury item which are liquidated first when disposable cash declines.

Fun times.
 
For some, particularly in the trawler sector..... trawler buying can be a lifestyle change driven by retirement (which could be laid off connected) or just choice. We see those posts pretty regularly even though a very small part of the market.

Much of what I read here (usually try and stay in a very narrow scope of interest) is not what I perceive to be related to a huge percentage of the boating industry..... so economy/industry generalizations may or may not apply.

Some will be true liveaboards with no dirt connection, others will be partials with asset shuffling.

So often the cheers from the gallery here of "just do it now" because of all sorts of reasons. Some (many?) here say boats might be considered toys (or not) are the givers of lifetime memories and are worth it at any cost.

Can be pretty challenging to the crowd ready to switch lifestyle in an environment made difficult at every turn.

To anyone contemplating switching lifestyle and starting to ask questions here, with out being very specific in writing questions, expect more confusing than helpful replies.
 
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An interesting proposal, making up the days lost due to the pandemic. Those who are motivated to learn will learn.
People complain about ‘snow days’. Try finding the time to make up for ‘pandemic days.’

IF the board of education gave ever child a computer and high speed connection, those who are motivated will learn. Computers will ‘disappear’. People would rather have a 100 sq inch TV.
I am only guessing fewer schools are being built, fewer people are going into teaching. Perhaps we will end up with a generation of ‘under-educated’. More folks will discover they are not qualified to take on high-tech job???
My medical provider has a sigh out front front, “Hiring”. I told them I have always wanted to be a doctor. Alas, they dont see the humor.
Calf wants to pay hamburger makers $25/hr plus all the freebies the feds are paying them. IF we are lucky, fewer folks will no longer be qualify for freebies.
Soon These ‘employees’ will discover they will need to pay income tax. Surprise surprise.
 
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SteveK said:
On the one hand many employers are having trouble finding employees, on the other there are massive layoffs in some sectors like Twitter, now google.

In the past few years people were buying homes at inflated prices and will hold out at least a year before accepting that they overpaid and will lose a lot of equity before prices start to tumble.

Variable rate mortgages for some 20 years paid off in lower overall interest. Now in less than 5 years the monthly payments are not covering the interest.

Boats are toys, a luxury item which are liquidated first when disposable cash declines.

Fun times.
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A reversion to the mean is one inviolable law of economics that can be relied on. Whether it takes a year or ten, it always, always happens.



https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/how-prosperity-ends
 
Holy crap you guys sure know how to kill a mood.

I believe what we are seeing in homes,cars and most large items regarding the higher than the "norm" prices is purely related to what the new cost and time delay for the new equivalent are..

I personally believe the housing market is the one single item that is driving most of these costs. Frankly is is so costly to build new and it takes so long that the value of completed stock has risen dramatically to fill the void of what would be purchased in the new market. No matter how high the used home market seems the new market is even higher by multiples. Some of this should cool off as the cost of higher than it was interest will cool off the upper end of the market and those prices should drop, or level off first. People that would of purchased in that market will look on the tiers below. Then we have folks that have sold at the top and downsized and spent the proceeds on other big ticket items, which has held those prices up (like our boats). The reality of high costs for good used high quality boats is that they can still be had for around 40% of the cost for a new equivalent boat without the long build times.

I am in the category above, we plan to downsize and take a small percentage of the proceeds to buy a used high quality boat that fits our needs to cruise for a period of time to yet be determined. I have been watching the yacht market in amazement at how little inventory and what the costs of boats that fit our needs are. But, the used boats are still a bargain in comparison to a new equivalent if there is one even made. The sub 50' new market for offshore or passage capable yachts is very thin as builders shifted to higher profit larger boats. This in itself will keep the value of sub 50' used boats higher that what it used to be for the future.

So, instead of gloom and doom I try to look at all the factors in what supports the cost factors in the market.


California and the latest trend to give the hamburger slingers $25 per hour will kill the casual and seasonal labor market for all sectors of the job market. I miss the weather there but that is about it.
Hollywood
 
SteveK said:
On the one hand many employers are having trouble finding employees, on the other there are massive layoffs in some sectors like Twitter, now google.

In the past few years people were buying homes at inflated prices and will hold out at least a year before accepting that they overpaid and will lose a lot of equity before prices start to tumble.

Variable rate mortgages for some 20 years paid off in lower overall interest. Now in less than 5 years the monthly payments are not covering the interest.

Boats are toys, a luxury item which are liquidated first when disposable cash declines.

Fun times.
Click to expand...

Main reasons to own a boat [in descending order of importance]:

1. Must have - for use as a dwelling
3. Want to have - for a business
4. Like to have - for R&R fun time
5. Do have - simply because it hasn't sold yet! :speed boat: :dance: :rofl:
 
Art said:
Main reasons to own a boat [in descending order of importance]:

1. Must have - for use as a dwelling
3. Want to have - for a business
4. Like to have - for R&R fun time
5. Do have - simply because it hasn't sold yet! :speed boat: :dance: :rofl:
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ok, I'll bite-- what's #2
 
Suspect the market will collapse when we die off. Due to demands made on the average middle to upper middle class two income two child family there’s neither time nor money for a cruising boat. Trailer and rack boats may be possible but not trawlers with the time and money required. Being a boat owner speaks to how you envision yourself. It’s part of your persona. The retirement transition from small boats to big boats is based on that persona. That’s mostly absent in our offspring and nearly totally absent in those who didn’t grow up in boating families.
Cost escalation may hasten this result but unless we bring on new boaters think it’s inevitable. It’s the same problem facing ski resorts and golf courses. Even hunting has this problem. They also require significant expenditures, time and dedication to be any good at it. And until you have a basic skill set not as much fun.
 
Hippocampus said:
Suspect the market will collapse when we die off. Due to demands made on the average middle to upper middle class two income two child family there’s neither time nor money for a cruising boat. Trailer and rack boats may be possible but not trawlers with the time and money required. Being a boat owner speaks to how you envision yourself. It’s part of your persona. The retirement transition from small boats to big boats is based on that persona. That’s mostly absent in our offspring and nearly totally absent in those who didn’t grow up in boating families.
Cost escalation may hasten this result but unless we bring on new boaters think it’s inevitable. It’s the same problem facing ski resorts and golf courses. Even hunting has this problem. They also require significant expenditures, time and dedication to be any good at it. And until you have a basic skill set not as much fun.
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True... regarding our old-school recreation, relaxation and enjoyment features you mention - But, many are now attempting to make brothels legal... basic skill set is a given! Much fun can be had!! BIG $$$ therein [pun intended - lol] Look how fast legal mamajuana flooded the U.S. - Just imagine legal sex work! :eek: :whistling: :dance: :facepalm: :D :thumb:
 
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Hippocampus said:
Suspect the market will collapse when we die off. ...
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Ha! But I'll bet that's true, or at least a significant decline. That's been on my mind a lot lately, not only due to the increasing financial pressures of normal life, but declining skill levels to operate and maintain bigger boats. Our boys are 12 and 14 at the moment, and I feel like I'm running out of time to teach them practical skills. I feel like a shop teacher lately. My wife and I both work white collar jobs, but even so, they need to know how to change a tire. Tonight we're going to cut window glass. Score, snap. No big deal, but go into a school and I'll bet one kid out of 100 has ever replaced a broken window. Soldering. Finishing rough sawn lumber, that doesn't come already shrink wrapped from a big box store. Mixing fiberglass resin. Changing a toilet flapper. Installing a dimmer switch. My son asked me why they needed to know how to trace a dead bulb in a pre-lit Christmas tree. My son, you need to know this so when your own tree blinks out someday, you don't look like a helpless goober in front of your wife and kids.

I'll bet our 12 year old is the only kid in his school who ever used a dial caliper to measure a prop shaft and packing gland so we can order the packing and re-stuff it in the spring. I'll bet he's the only kid in his school who even knows what a packing gland or stuffing box is.

But in general, in broad terms, long term, I think Hippo's right, the market is doomed.
 
Art said:
Main reasons to own a boat [in descending order of importance]:

1. Must have - for use as a dwelling
3. Want to have - for a business
4. Like to have - for R&R fun time
5. Do have - simply because it hasn't sold yet! :speed boat: :dance: :rofl:
Click to expand...


You forgot: Need to have a bevy of new and never ending projects!
 
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