Coronavirus and buying a boat

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O believe in times of uncertainty it may be wise to sit on your hands and wait to see which way the wind blows. What ever happens with prices for trawlers is not important atm. Everyone staying healthy is.
 
firehoser75 said:
The R0 (R naught) that Murray is talking about, is actually a factor of not only how contagious a disease is, but also, the environment that it "operates" or exists in!!
For example, a very contagious disease "loose" in a practically unoccupied countryside will have a much lower R0 than the same disease "loose" in a densely populated city that does not curtail in any way person to person contact!
So how we (as a group - all people) act (or don't) will have an impact on the spread of this disease.

It appears to me that we are now past the "contain" phase, and must now concentrate on trying to delay how fast and far it spreads to try to lower the impact on our health systems. A large "spike" in cases could be extremely detrimental as described above in Post #85.
Click to expand...


Do you know how to apply the R0 number in terms of time?

If someone is contagious for an average of one week for example, do you multiply the known cases by the R0 number once for every week to estimate how many people may be infected in the future?
 
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MurrayM said:
Do you know how to apply the R0 number in terms of time?

If someone is contagious for an average of one week for example, do you multiply the known cases by the R0 number once for every week to estimate how many people may be infected in the future?
Click to expand...

Found the answer in the first paragraph here..

"The basic reproduction number, R0 is defined as the expected number of secondary cases produced by a single (typical) infection in a completely susceptible population. It is important to note that R0 is a dimensionless number and not a rate, which would have units of time..."
Click to expand...

https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf
 
"Meet up with others? Are you nutz? They all got cooties, maybe even THE virus."

Or they may have planned well and have food .


"The US case numbers are definitely underreported because we aren’t testing very many people at all. A cynic would say that’s by design, for political purposes. I’m trying to not be that cynic, but it’s getting harder and harder."

Probably 90% of the medicines , antibiotics and test kits are made in China .

Why would they be in a hurry to supply the USA?
 
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In Italy, 50 died of Covid 19 in the last 24 hours, and the numbers of infected are still increasing.
 
We have serious Flu every year, thousands die, every year. If one does not take precautions against the Flu virus, like flu shots, hand washing and general personal hygiene, why all of a sudden all the interest in a different virus with similar outcomes? I'm more worried about the Flu, more likely to catch the Flu, more likely to die from the Flu. I'm going to wash my damn hands and live my life!
 
FF said:
"Meet up with others? Are you nutz? They all got cooties, maybe even THE virus."

Or they may have planned well and have food .


"The US case numbers are definitely underreported because we aren’t testing very many people at all. A cynic would say that’s by design, for political purposes. I’m trying to not be that cynic, but it’s getting harder and harder."

Probably 90% of the medicines , antibiotics and test kits are made in China .

Why would they be in a hurry to supply the USA?
Click to expand...

Why would any country be willing to export medical equipment to anyone now? Germany, France and Italy have shut off export of face masks to EU countries that do not manufacture their own and we can expect more of this in the coming days and weeks.

Would we export COVID19 test kits today to Canada or Mexico? Would we prioritize Delaware over Puerto Rico or treat them equally?
 
TWedd said:
We have serious Flu every year, thousands die, every year. If one does not take precautions against the Flu virus, like flu shots, hand washing and general personal hygiene, why all of a sudden all the interest in a different virus with similar outcomes? I'm more worried about the Flu, more likely to catch the Flu, more likely to die from the Flu. I'm going to wash my damn hands and live my life!
Click to expand...

Because the outcomes are not similar. Not according to the CDC and other experts. Do you think that China completely overreacted by shutting down their economy over the seasonal flu?
 
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TWedd said:
We have serious Flu every year, thousands die, every year. If one does not take precautions against the Flu virus, like flu shots, hand washing and general personal hygiene, why all of a sudden all the interest in a different virus with similar outcomes? I'm more worried about the Flu, more likely to catch the Flu, more likely to die from the Flu. I'm going to wash my damn hands and live my life!
Click to expand...

As a starter, you can multiply deaths to flu by 20 times to have a Covid 19 death toll estimate :eek:

That's a low ball number. Italy is seeing a 4.3% death rate, so you could multiply flu deaths which are usually pegged somewhere around 0.1% by 43 times.

Then again, nobody on Earth has immunity to Covid 19 because our species has never seen it before, so the numbers could go vastly higher.

During the Spanish Flu of 1918 (so far, it seems to have had similar death rate and also highly contagious) 3 million died around July, 20 million more died by November, and another 7 million had died by the following April. Those are low numbers...some estimate well over 50 million died.

We're smarter now, but there are 4 times more people on the planet.

I would suggest people not get their health news from politicians!
 
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I can envision our eventual death rates here in the US to be at least as high as Italy’s because we are doing basically nothing to contain it, and as a result our hospitals will be jammed to capacity. When others with critical respiratory symptoms can’t get a hospital bed, they will die.

The death rates in Wuhan were much higher than elsewhere in China because they ran out of hospital beds.
 
cardude01 said:
I can envision our eventual death rates here in the US to be at least as high as Italy’s because we are doing basically nothing to contain it, and as a result our hospitals will be jammed to capacity. When others with critical respiratory symptoms can’t get a hospital bed, they will die.

The death rates in Wuhan were much higher than elsewhere in China because they ran out of hospital beds.
Click to expand...

I wonder if those deaths will or should be counted as being caused by the virus? If you die from injuries sustained in a fall at home that you would have survived if there was an ICU bed available, does that get counted?

I am thinking that there are going to be some very hard triage decisions to be made in the coming weeks......
 
It’s possibly gonna get ugly for some folks.

This thread is depressing me. I’m gonna go wash my hands then eat some boiled crawfish and drink beer.[emoji41]
 
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rsn48 said:
Well, if folks are dropping dead left, right and center, then I'll get on my boat with my wife and dog and head to Princess Louisa Inlet for a month. Your boat becomes your escape. And while people are dropping dead all over, I'll be looking at Chatterbox Falls, thinking... wow!
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Good thing there's lots of inlets as I have the same idea.
But long term (two or more months) means you’ve gotta go to town and get grub. And in little towns up the line people are constantly meeting folks that just flew in from god knows where.
 
Woodland Hills said:
I wonder if those deaths will or should be counted as being caused by the virus? If you die from injuries sustained in a fall at home that you would have survived if there was an ICU bed available, does that get counted?

I am thinking that there are going to be some very hard triage decisions to be made in the coming weeks......
Click to expand...

Yes, the injury at home gets counted as a death from a fall at home.
 
TWedd said:
We have serious Flu every year, thousands die, every year. If one does not take precautions against the Flu virus, like flu shots, hand washing and general personal hygiene, why all of a sudden all the interest in a different virus with similar outcomes? I'm more worried about the Flu, more likely to catch the Flu, more likely to die from the Flu. I'm going to wash my damn hands and live my life!
Click to expand...
So you should. But you overlooked something I highlighted above. Yes,there are "flu shots",but there are no "covid 19 shots".
 
Ralsy said:
Just wondering what the general consensus is on buying a boat during the Coronavirus event. Should I or shouldn't I? Boat is a 55ft trawler style boat in the half mill range.
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"Twenty years from now, you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than those you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the wind in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
— Mark Twain,
 
My feeling is that whether we are entering a buyer's or sellers market for boats (or any other depreciating toy) has less to do with the medical aspects and more to do with what the stock markets are doing.
Market corrections / recessions should correlate well with buyer pessimism and unwillingness to spend on discretionary items until a rebound is at least underway.
Market uncertainty = wait n' see
 
MurrayM said:
As a starter, you can multiply deaths to flu by 20 times to have a Covid 19 death toll estimate :eek:

That's a low ball number. Italy is seeing a 4.3% death rate, so you could multiply flu deaths which are usually pegged somewhere around 0.1% by 43 times.

Then again, nobody on Earth has immunity to Covid 19 because our species has never seen it before, so the numbers could go vastly higher.

During the Spanish Flu of 1918 (so far, it seems to have had similar death rate and also highly contagious) 3 million died around July, 20 million more died by November, and another 7 million had died by the following April. Those are low numbers...some estimate well over 50 million died.

We're smarter now, but there are 4 times more people on the planet.

I would suggest people not get their health news from politicians!
Click to expand...

I guess time will tell, you may be right and we may all die, I'm not buying it!
I would suggest people not get their health news from 24hr news cycle!
 
TWedd said:
I guess time will tell, you may be right and we may all die, I'm not buying it!
I would suggest people not get their health news from 24hr news cycle!
Click to expand...

If you had clicked on some of the links in my posts, you'd have noticed they are mostly from scientific journals or from credible news websites.

We're not all going to die, but if we did nothing the credible low ball guesstimates I've seen is that 40% of us will get the virus, and of those, 2% will die. That equals 60 million people.

True, China has slowed the spread, but they effectively forced 'self isolation' as well as tracked down and (sometimes forcibly) gathered up people who had contact with known carriers of the virus.

There will be no hiding from the 60 million or more dead because not one human on the planet has immunity to Covid 19...unless we come up with a vaccine to a virus that has already mutated at least once.

It could happen in 14 months or so like the Spanish Flu, or could be spread out over a longer time span, but unless a vaccine is found the total number of dead wouldn't change. That's what health officials are really trying to do right now by emphasizing good hygiene and self isolation when sick...they are trying to lessen the number of sick so hospitals can have a chance to deal with the problem, with the hope a vaccine can be found and confirmed in time to save some lives.

I hope the experts are wrong, but hope offers no immunity.
 
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The best way we know to protect yourself is to wash your hands and to stop touching your face. Wearing a face mask no matter how ineffective it is at blocking airborne contamination is the best way to do that. You can’t touch your face with a barrier of cloth between your fingers and your skin.
 
MurrayM said:
If you had clicked on some of the links in my posts, you'd have noticed they are mostly from scientific journals or from credible news websites....
Click to expand...


Here you go TWedd...links from my posts in this thread:


https://www.europeanscientist.com/e...vid-19-a-survey-of-the-scientific-literature/

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/virus-has-mutated-into-two-strains/

https://www.maritime-executive.com/...ests-from-u-s-based-cruise-ship-have-covid-19

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/thomas-m-file-jr-md-covid19-requires-a-unified-approach

https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-italy-retired-doctors-12512818

 
MurrayM said:
We're not all going to die, but if we did nothing the credible low ball guesstimates I've seen is that 40% of us will get the virus, and of those, 2% will die. That equals 60 million people.
Click to expand...

First of all, your math is wrong. 40% of 350 million is 140 million. 2% of 130 million is 2.8 million.

Second, In what time frame?

I'm guessing 99% of us have had the flu. With a fatality rate of .5% that's around 1.6 million. We're not coming unhinged because of it. See, time frame is important.

Ted
 
Woodland Hills said:
The best way we know to protect yourself is to wash your hands and to stop touching your face. Wearing a face mask no matter how ineffective it is at blocking airborne contamination is the best way to do that. You can’t touch your face with a barrier of cloth between your fingers and your skin.
Click to expand...

So it’s like peanut butter? One would think a virus could reach ones’s throat via your eyes and ears. How about the Dementia Virus which has effected millions?
Meanwhile out in the real world where people aren’t glued to the tv screens, life goes on, the gyms are full, Chipotle’s has long lines, last night had just as many shootings as every other Saturday night. Listen to Trump, he knows what he speaks, and he knows who his real father is vs Trudeau. I mention that for our Canadian detractors, according all the Cubans in Miami, it’s common knowledge that it was Fidel.
 
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Ted,
I think Murray's figures were for "world wide" as that is how the Spanish Flu is discussed, and I think you looked at US numbers. I hope none of them come true, but I do prepare for self (family) isolation and dependence. Take precautions, they are the only thing we have now, and if we wait, it could be too late to adjust later?
Don't get me wrong, I know that about 80% of cases seem to be mild, (still prefer not to experience even that), but what about the other people (20%)?

Unless things improve, we can expect a shortage of hospital beds, face masks (PPE) for healthcare workers, etc. The economy is going to take a hit (already has). Unprecedented actions (like in China, Iran (closing of shrines), parts of Europe) have been undertaken.......This is not the flu. I just hope the media has "overblown" this like in some past incidents, but I do admit, that this time I am actually a bit worried and for the first time, am taking some steps to better prepare (eg. decided to cancel a trip to Indian Wells Tennis - avoid large crowds).
Whatever each of you decides to do (or not), I wish you nothing but the best and good luck.
Oh, and personally I don't think politicizing this, or even nationalizing this is doing anything positive. It only serves to divide. This (or any) virus does not respect political views or borders. It does not have nor need a passport.
 
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firehoser75 said:
Ted,
I think Murray's figures were for "world wide" as that is how the Spanish Flu is discussed, and I think you looked at US numbers. I hope none of them come true, but I do prepare for self (family) isolation and dependence. Take precautions, they are the only thing we have now, and if we wait, it could be too late to adjust later?
Don't get me wrong, I know that about 80% of cases seem to be mild, (still prefer not to experience even that), but what about the other people (20%)?
Click to expand...

Ok, didn't catch the "in the world" part, but still over what time frame?

In the bolded part, where have the percentages been scientifically determined? I'm not aware of any area with what could be called a "Scientific Sample Size ", that has 100% been tested. They're talking maybe educated guesses. Any guess on what percentage of the people are carriers and never show symptoms?

I'm all for taking precautions, but predicting world death totals on a 3 month old virus without anything resembling scientific sampling, dosen't help.

Ted
 
O C Diver said:
Ok, didn't catch the "in the world" part, but still over what time frame?

In the bolded part, where have the percentages been scientifically determined? I'm not aware of any area with what could be called a "Scientific Sample Size ", that has 100% been tested. They're talking maybe educated guesses. Any guess on what percentage of the people are carriers and never show symptoms?

I'm all for taking precautions, but predicting world death totals on a 3 month old virus without anything resembling scientific sampling, dosen't help.

Ted
Click to expand...


Good points Ted.

The problem is, most if not all of the scientifically supported numbers you are talking about won't be known until after this is "all over". That will not help us make decisions now. What we are using are the best available (however rapidly changing) data now available. I don't know what else we can use to facilitate decisionmaking??
I agree, we don't want a massive "over reaction" or as unfortunately our news seems to want to do which is to "sensationalize" things. But, denying things is not prudent either. It is tough to separate the "wheat from the chaff" now, hence my decision to "make some changes and basic preparations". :thumb:
 
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