Hilary comes to Baja! (Pacific Hurricane)

[MYTraveler]

Windy has a relatively new feature "Hurricane Tracker." Here's the one for Hilary - it's a decent graphic and does indeed differ from their standard diplay forecast.

https://www.windy.com/-Hurricane-tracker/hurricanes/hilary?22.079,-122.412,5,i:pressure

Peter

That feature does indeed show higher current wind readings, but the highest currently is 54 knots -- enough to justify a tropical storm rating, but not even category 1 hurricane rating. There is a graphic labeled 109 knots, but even that is cat 3.

 

[OldDan1943]

Put your dingy on the unprotected side after removing the motor.

 

[sunchaser]

We shall see, but this sort of not uncommon weather sells internet hits but the SW always needs the rain.

 

[mvweebles]

The marina had a crew walk the docks this morning to check lines. They didn't secure the dinghy on the Islander next to me so I asked them to which they did promptly.

Storm track looks favorable for me, but I still doubled up lines and stowed dinghy cover and window covers. Better safe than sorry I suppose.

Peter
View attachment 141610

 

[cardude01]

Good luck to you and others in the path. Hopefully this thing will flame out before it can cause too much damage.

 

[OldDan1943]

Stay safe!!

 

[heysteve]

We're in the PE mooring field now. We had periods of heavy rain earlier today and I hear the road between the marina and Loreto Bay is washed out.

I'd guess the winds are sustained in the upper 20s or lower 30s. Gusts are definitely into the lower 40s. Probably a real washing machine outside the marina. Winds are largely from the SE.

The moorings have all been fine so far and no boats have gone on a walkabout. Fortunately, they replaced all the pendants recently with heavy line. We can only hope they inspected the anchors while doing that work.

The winds are supposed to be peaking now so if this is the worst of it we'll all be fine.

 

[mvweebles]

I finished securing Weebles and slipped out for a tostada de ceviche before the rain starts. I must say, the food here is excellent.

More later

Peter
PS - click bait picture was unintentional.

 

[Action]

Meanwhile in the Valley of the Sun (Phoenix) the weather is strange for August.
Predicted temps under 100 (85 right now) for the next 3 days.
Predicted low at 79f
Over cast versus abundant sunshine.

The lower temps in August are nice. If we could get some rain, that would be awesome.

 

[OldDan1943]

Put your dingy on the unprotected side after removing the motor.

When I use my RIB as a fender, during hurricane prep, I pull the drain plug and fill it about 1/2 way with water.

 

[mvweebles]

Morning update - Overall, Hilary is shaping-up to be a yawner of a hurricane. Decent storm, but as a Florida guy, not much of a Hurricane event.

Here's the Windy/GFS track - has moved a bit closer to Ensenda (5-10 miles east) than yesterdays forecast but ooomph has diminished further. I'm expecting less than 30-kts. I'm sure this over-zoomed view looks much more precise than it actually is, but sure is fun to be able to see detail.

More to come......

Peter

 

[twistedtree]

Fingers crossed.


Any reports from the east coast of the peninsula?

 

[Kuncicky]

But severe weather is quite rare here so, unlike Florida, I wonder if people are used to securing their boats. I have seen zero prep anywhere on the docks, and I'd guess that 40%-50% of the boats are not prepared for 3-hrs of >40-kts. Many sailboats with passively secured roller furlers.

Yeah, that is going to be the real problem -- people there just don't have any experience with it (unlike us). Well, at least the storm has been downgraded to Cat 1 now, which will help some. Good luck.

 

[mvweebles]

The eye of Hilary will pass 20 miles to the east of me within an hour or so. Windy says I should be seeing 35 kt gusts right now. Barely a duck-fart out there - note the flags on the trawler down the fairway from me. It's been drizzling for a few hours, but that's it.

Don't get me wrong, boring is good. Just surprised. Maybe Hilary is running late. This is Mexico after all.

Peter

 

[Kuncicky]

The eye of Hilary will pass 20 miles to the east of me within an hour or so. Windy says I should be seeing 35 kt gusts right now. Barely a duck-fart out there - note the flags on the trawler down the fairway from me. It's been drizzling for a few hours, but that's it.

Don't get me wrong, boring is good. Just surprised. Maybe Hilary is running late. This is Mexico after all.

Count your blessings. It has been downgraded to a tropical storm, so you may see little or nothing.



Getting on the soapbox for a minute, I have seen this happen so many times that I cannot count them. Warning of bad hurricane, everyone scurries around doing things to get ready, hurricane turns out to be a big nothing, everyone is mad about the false alarm. And so next time it happens, they don't get ready. And lose everything. Hurricane Michael in 2018, which literally wiped out a lot of my my friends and neighbors, is a textbook example.
.
Bill

 

[socalrider]

Count your blessings. It has been downgraded to a tropical storm, so you may see little or nothing.



Getting on the soapbox for a minute, I have seen this happen so many times that I cannot count them. Warning of bad hurricane, everyone scurries around doing things to get ready, hurricane turns out to be a big nothing, everyone is mad about the false alarm. And so next time it happens, they don't get ready. And lose everything. Hurricane Michael in 2018, which literally wiped out a lot of my my friends and neighbors, is a textbook example.
.
Bill

Yeah - I'm following the example of the 3rd fleet... well I'm not sheltering at sea, but taking it seriously enough to spend a few hours prepping. Figure they probably know what's what.

Just went for a 5mi run here in San Diego. Light drizzle, no wind... but better safe than sorry!

 

[mvweebles]

Just went for a 5mi run here in San Diego. Light drizzle, no wind... but better safe than sorry!

As mentioned upthread, I've evacuated a few times in Florida. Twice I got hit harder where we stayed than our home did.

The moment I start to feel complacent, I remind myself with one word: "Michael." The devastation I saw a couple months after Michael was awesome.

Yesterday I was expecting 30-40 kts as I took down what little canvas I have (window covers, dinghy cover and chaps). It was tempting to do nothing. In hindsight, I would do nothing different.

"Michael"

Peter

 

[Larry M]

As you said earlier, you’re on the good side of the storm, which is good. Santa Rosalia in Baja, 220 miles SE of San Diego, had serious flooding.

 

[mvweebles]

As you said earlier, you’re on the good side of the storm, which is good. Santa Rosalia in Baja, 220 miles SE of San Diego, had serious flooding.

Wow!!!!

Yes, being on the clean side of the storm, even a few miles, is a huge difference.

The guilty part of waiting for a hurricane track is its a zero-sum game. What's good for me usually means someone else will get whacked instead.

I heard a good metaphor for the wait on a hurricane: "it's like being stalked by a homicidal tortoise."

Peter

 

[Larry M]

I’m with you on the tortoise. Hopefully, east of the center, as it dissipates through CA and NV won’t bring the predicted rains.

I have to say it is different sitting here in Florida watching a storm where you’re at. Stay dry.

 

[HopCar]

“ I heard a good metaphor for the wait on a hurricane: "it's like being stalked by a homicidal tortoise."
Perfect, I’m going to steal that.

 

[heysteve]

All good in the PE mooring field south of Loreto. We had sustained winds in the 40's with gusts into the 60's but otherwise no drama. Heavy rain at times but thankfully very little lightening. The temp has been a very pleasant low 80's the last day or so but the sun is starting to break through so it's back to unbearable heat!

 

[ksanders]

My boat is on the hard at Baja Naval in Ensenada.

From my Davis weather station...

In the last 24 house I've measured 2.39" of rain, and the peak wind gust was 19 knots in the hour ending at 17:00.

Average wind has been 6.



In La Paz we saw maybe 25 on my visual palm tree scale.
It rained a bit, and we lost power for a day.

All is back to normal now.

 

[Hippocampus]

Glad to hear you’re all doing well. As said by all models and reporting risk was thought to be rain not wind. Seems it’s coming out that way. Seems a buttoned up boat should do ok with rain so hope it continues that way for you.

 

[OldDan1943]

Folks on the west coast would go insane with worry if you were on the east coast. LOL
Even on the off season, I leave the lines doubled so I do have to rush or worry if I am not onboard. We might have 5 or 6 events each hurricane season.

 

[Cold Duck]

We expected Mulege to flood but only 6" rain and no real flooding. We've seen water only a few feet from the bottom of the bridge before but nothing this time. It went north a few miles to Santa Rosalia. You just never know.

 

[guy with a boat]

Folks on the west coast would go insane with worry if you were on the east coast. LOL
Even on the off season, I leave the lines doubled so I do have to rush or worry if I am not onboard. We might have 5 or 6 events each hurricane season.

Or maybe we would take reasonable precautions when in the path of a hurricane that is forecast to land as a tropical storm, just like the smart people on the other coast. Not seeing any extra insanity beyond the TF norm.

Some might say that doubled lines in the off season shows unnecessary worry. Others would say it is a smart way to be prepared.

Its pretty easy to know the severity of a storm in the days after it occurs, but you have to work with uncertainties of nature when preparing in advance.

 

[Hippocampus]

Or maybe we would take reasonable precautions when in the path of a hurricane that is forecast to land as a tropical storm, just like the smart people on the other coast. Not seeing any extra insanity beyond the TF norm.

Some might say that doubled lines in the off season shows unnecessary worry. Others would say it is a smart way to be prepared.

Its pretty easy to know the severity of a storm in the days after it occurs, but you have to work with uncertainties of nature when preparing in advance.

Think in recent years throughout North America more concerning issue is being able to find a space to haul a boat and strap it down appropriately or be able to reliably move a boat out of the path of a hurricane (not just named storm). Seems there’s more marinas without travel lifts and/or adequate space for storage on the hard. Think that contributes to boats being damaged or lost more than differing regional attitudes. Now having some limited experience of the south east unlike the mid Atlantic and northeast think it’s a particular issue for Florida and the southeast. Some marinas tell you to leave before a hurricane as they want to save their docks. Where do you go? Our response has been to stay out of the zone during the season. Some don’t have that option.
Don’t know anything about the left coast so can’t comment.

 

[OldDan1943]

On the east coast, the local TV stations like give, ‘You are all going to die.’, speech, put the junior person outside to ‘report live, from the scene.’, etc etc.

Just keep eye on the lat and long and wind speed. If you are on the clean side and the eye lat is north of you, dont worry as much as if you were on the dirty side.

An important point. If you are close to tall buildings, you may experience wind funneling aka an increase in wind speed. I am near 5 high rise condo complex. I was supposed to be on the clean side but due to wind funneling, it broke the minimal hurricane resistant glass. The funneling MPH exceeded the spec on that glass. When it was replaced, they upped the max mph to account for wind funneling.

 

[OldDan1943]

I have conflicting reports on boat yards, empty the yard of boats on the hard and other yards would rather have you on the hard.