Hurricane fatigue

[BandB]

Wifey B: Zeta now a CAT 2. One more hurricane strengthening when forecast not to.

 

[rgano]

Wifey B: Zeta now a CAT 2. One more hurricane strengthening when forecast not to.

Hurricane Michael is the poster child for a missed forecast re: strengthening. I recall just a few days before landfall it was forecast well below the cat five it hit us as.

 

[BandB]

Hurricane Michael is the poster child for a missed forecast re: strengthening. I recall just a few days before landfall it was forecast well below the cat five it hit us as.

Wifey B: Every hurricane for the last few years has done so, Michael more than most. Warmer water equals more strengthening. Simple but the forecasters haven't adjusted to account for it all.

 

[rgano]

Wifey B: Every hurricane for the last few years has done so, Michael more than most. Warmer water equals more strengthening. Simple but the forecasters haven't adjusted to account for it all.

The choir rogers up.

 

[DCDC]

We anchored in the east/west leg of the Tensaw cutoff for Sally. At the time it was forecast to go over Mobile and our anchor spot but it veered to the East near Gulf Shores. Our spot was about a half mile in, 15’ depth and the river is 400-500’ wide, ample swing room, good holding. Heavy forest breaks up SE-SW winds. We felt comfortable with the location and our anchor system so we actually left the boat to prepare our house for higher than expected water. There’s a boat launch close by at Mt. Vernon and we left our dinghy tied up for 3 days. No problem with Stella or the dinghy when we returned.

It’s 50 miles inland so intensity should drop significantly and the storm is moving fast. Although the anchor seems light your friend maybe OK

Good luck to him and others along Zeta’s path.

 

[Capt.Will]

Hope you are safe.

We are all praying you stay safe, and our thoughts and prayers are with you.
Will & barb

 

[rgano]

We anchored in the east/west leg of the Tensaw cutoff for Sally. At the time it was forecast to go over Mobile and our anchor spot but it veered to the East near Gulf Shores. Our spot was about a half mile in, 15’ depth and the river is 400-500’ wide, ample swing room, good holding. Heavy forest breaks up SE-SW winds. We felt comfortable with the location and our anchor system so we actually left the boat to prepare our house for higher than expected water. There’s a boat launch close by at Mt. Vernon and we left our dinghy tied up for 3 days. No problem with Stella or the dinghy when we returned.

It’s 50 miles inland so intensity should drop significantly and the storm is moving fast. Although the anchor seems light your friend maybe OK

Good luck to him and others along Zeta’s path.

Funny, he was in the Tensaw last night and did not like it because it was so wide. So he moved to where he is this morning. Guess he likes tighter anchorages, but he is surely limited in being able to swing through a 180-degree wind shift, if it happens.

I don't know why I have anything to do with this nut. I mean wimpy engine on a wimpy sailboat and wimpy anchors, and worst of all, he sometimes refuses to acknowledge the wisdom of my advice.

Even for my 12,000 30-foot boat my standard hurricane hole equipage is one 35-lb SuperMax bower anchor with 190' of chain, one 35-lb old fashioned Herreshoff type with 200' of 5/8 braided, two FX-37 Fortress anchors with 200' each 5/8 twisted, and the 17-lb claw stays in the laz as a minor leaguer. And here's this guy with a tinker toy set up who will probably luck his way through this. I guess God looks after drunks and sailors.

 

[rgano]

We are all praying you stay safe, and our thoughts and prayers are with you.
Will & barb

Good thoughts for those west of us. It looks to be shaping up to be a big yawn for us in the PC area with windfinder.com showing highest winds for us at 24 MPH gusting to 41 for just a few hours. My post storm activity will likely consist of simply hosing the salt spray off the boat and lift and removing the anti-sway lines from the lift. Water may not even get over our pier.

 

[OldDan1943]

We are all praying you stay safe, and our thoughts and prayers are with you.
Will & barb

+1

"Hurricane fatigue" occurs, to me, when the local TV station stops all programing and go into 24hr weather reporting, basically says, "Everyone is going to die except for those of us at our TV station."
After a week of that, I desperately turn on Sat radio for something new and exciting such as mysteries from the 30s and 40s.

 

[BandB]

+1

"Hurricane fatigue" occurs, to me, when the local TV station stops all programing and go into 24hr weather reporting, basically says, "Everyone is going to die except for those of us at our TV station."
After a week of that, I desperately turn on Sat radio for something new and exciting such as mysteries from the 30s and 40s.

And if that saves lives, then I'm all for it.

 

[FF]

"I'd have to have hurricane-proof home here which I could leave without worries,"

No problem , its just that you would have to have it custom built.
Might cost a bit more to build , but the savings on hurricane insurance would make up the difference in a couple of years.

The boat can be helped the most by keeping it in a hurricane hole location, but frequently that is 50-75 miles inland from the coast. With a slow boat that is an extra day in & out when going cruising.

 

[rgano]

Got a call from my sailboat friend on the Alabama River Cutoff that all is well with him and his two Fortress anchors. He said both bow and stern anchors were still in place. The sea kayak he was towing is flipped over but afloat. He never did know from what direction the wind blew because he never even poked his head out of the hatch, but he reported that the rolling he experienced was more to port (meaning south winds) and that one gust sent a mug with wine in it off the table and into his lap. One wag suggested he use a sippy cup next time. Photos show a bit of debris entangled on his forward anchor rode and minor tree particles on the decks. Apparently the winds never funneled directly up and down the channel during the night.

We got about 1.5 feet of surge here 300 miles east of this near-cat 3 hurricane's landfall. The photo was at 0200, several hours after the water level had peaked at just barely over the deck boards of the pier.

 

[OldDan1943]

So far, so good.

 

[Olebird]

We got a pretty good blow up here (275 mi north of PNS) around midnight, but light rain only. Power never went out.

 

[OldDan1943]

When Irma came through, all the condo and hospital lost power. It was nice, sitting on the boat, generator running along with the 2 A/Cs and TV. Because we are on the same leg as the hospital we got power back first.

 

[sbu22]

Eye passed over my house and, about a mile away, the boat. Finally got to use my storm tie. Can't get to the boat to see how she fared due to closed flood gates. Used to climb them, but I'm not capable at this time - have to wait.

 

[Olebird]

We are the last meter on a long Rural Electric line from three counties over. Any little breeze and we are in the dark waiting on the line crew from 30 miles away to come put things back together. Tornadoesd usually mean a week or more. But I just drag a 10K trailer mounted yanmar out of the barn and plug the house in. Will pull the whole house for a week on forty gallon tank of off road diesel. (or grab some cubes, head to the boat and mix up some margaritas -feet up & just dare one of those big stripers to bite the hook!

 

[FoxtrotCharlie]

Yep, this one spooled up at the last minute - hit Mississippi coast as a ‘high 2’, ie one mph below a 3. Enough is enough.

 

[Bryant]

Hurricanes

Usually by this time of year we all can breathe a sigh of relief about the season being over, but not this year, especially for the snake-bit central and western Gulf coast. Being on the eastern edge of the uncertainty cone at the moment makes us thankful not to be centered in the cone, but it is still early... I friend who just sailed his boat to Mobile (currently dead center of the cone) from here this week and is now departing for storm evasion up the Tenn-Tom Waterway, saying, "Are you KIDDING me?!" As a minimum we will be getting a yard full of bayou water and maybe have to remove the boat from the lift under the boathouse to prevent bad things happening to both boat and roof. Forecast tracks show a pretty fast mover this time, which is good from a flooding perspective. So come on Zeta, do your worst and then get gone with ya. Photo shows how close Sally came to ruining the day and why we are moving the boat when future storms threaten surge.

I suppose that if we didn't have these things, we would be overrun with population explosion here on both land and water in paradise.

I feel your pain. My boat is in P'cola on the hard getting repaired from Sally. Enough already!
If the PNW hadn't gotten so crazy, I'd move back there. Of course, then there would probably be an earthquake or volcano. Sometimes you just can't win. Lake Powell is looking pretty nice.

 

[dacap06]

I can't believe the number of storms that have taken that track this year. Unreal.

I guess you could look on the bright side - statistically, the next few years should be pretty lean!!

Sadly, we can't say that about the next few years at all. These two factors are, as mathematicians and statisticians will tell you, statistically independent. What that means is that events in one year will have no effect on events in succeeding years. Oh, if only it weren't so!

 

[83GB]

I got a good lesson this year living in a canal front home (1/2 miles from the Gulf of Mexico as the crow files) with my boat out back in LA (Lower Alabama). For Sally, I did a fair amount of home hurricane prep work; hauled in all outdoor furniture, house has hurricane rated impact windows so nothing done to house. I did fair amount of prep for the 42 trawler; put bimini tops in their boots, took off fabric window and hatch covers, put on a couple of extra dock lines (boat is moored facing north along pier that has five 12 inch diameter pilings that extend 10 or 12 feet above normal water height). Sally was projected to be a CAT 1 and hit way west of us. Instead it stalled, strengthened to a good CAT 2 and hit a quarter mile from my house. 100+ mph winds mainly out of the east pinned my boat against those 5 stout pilings and the boat rose up the pilings on the rub rail as the tide rose a good 5 or 6 feet. The dingy got blown about a bit but only ended up tilted over (no damage), forward safety glass salon window cracked, flybridge wind screen snapped off and saucer shaped TV antenna blew completely off. So when zeta was in the gulf, I really took notice and secured things even better and fortunately for us (unfortunate for Louisiana) it hit far from us. As I remember, weather service said zeta would attain CAT 1 status but weaken as it got in the cooler waters near shore.... Well that did not happen.. So in the future, anytime a storm is in the Gulf of Mexico, I will prepare like it will hit me directly. A day or two before it hits, if it is projected to be a CAT 3 or greater, I will be in my car driving north...

 

[bill.kimbell]

How did you make out, Rich?

 

[BandB]

Sadly, we can't say that about the next few years at all. These two factors are, as mathematicians and statisticians will tell you, statistically independent. What that means is that events in one year will have no effect on events in succeeding years. Oh, if only it weren't so!

Wifey B: In fact, what we can say is that with warmer and higher seas, it will worsen, not improve. Now might be better in a given area or occasional years, but the trend is real and the trend is bad.

 

[83GB]

Rich is my brother...and he did fine... he is another 100 miles east of me in Alabama.. further from the storms..

 

[rgano]

Rich is my brother...and he did fine... he is another 100 miles east of me in Alabama.. further from the storms..

Yup, over here, we got winds at about 30 MPH gusting to 40-45 from the south and water just over the pier. Did nothing to prepare the boat except tie a couple of lines to the cradle on the upwind side to prevent any sway. We have been blessed this time. See post #42.

 

[Group9]

Well, we survived another one. 104 mph winds not far from where we hide our boat but she made it fine. No anchor holds like four well anchored trees!

Our marina had a few boats sink that couldn’t or wouldn’t move. The wall is 11’ above sea level and from the looks of the damage, at least some water was getting over that.

 

[Gulf Comanche]

I've had 5 or 6 hurricane preps this season. Move her out from under cover, tie off and expect flood, back to boat afterwards to resume normal ops. Have to move her out from under cover due to paravane height, marina owner would not appreciate a hole in the roof. But, my slip is in a great hurricane hole, just south of Springfield LA on the Blood River. Floods are what will get you here. So far, so good, Old School remains afloat.

 

[Gulf Comanche]

I feel your pain. My boat is in P'cola on the hard getting repaired from Sally. Enough already!
If the PNW hadn't gotten so crazy, I'd move back there. Of course, then there would probably be an earthquake or volcano. Sometimes you just can't win. Lake Powell is looking pretty nice.

Till the dam breaks.

 

[Group9]

And, woke up this morning to find the power was back on. Yeehaw!

 

[BandB]

Wifey B: Tropical storm Eta now expected to become a hurricane and hit Central America.