It’s Showtime

[bluebyu]

Dannc, are you able to respond to the weather question? PM sent
Mark

 

[bluebyu]

Not wanting Richard waiting for the data, sent the following at 6:23am

From opc.ncep.noaa.gov 08:50 UTC, 21 Aug:
Low-1003, 6W-58N
High-1026, 28W-52N
Low-1016, 27W-41N
Weak Low-1015, 18W-42N

 

[bluebyu]

As I am not a weather expert, I told Richard others are checking the data I sent. From Richard:

What's to check? That's perfect.
With just your little text, I see why I had to turn around.
I was heading into 600 miles of northeasterlies.
There must be

There must be something down near the Canaries.
Why (What?) is it.

I'll keep the maps I make so I can show you guys how I used your info

Can you do the same for 48 hr. Also slightly larger area west and south. Just a bit.

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.196133 Lon -21.052852

 

[bluebyu]

Sent to Dauntless:

Sorry, I think my Lats and Long were reversed.
High-1021, 34N-23W
Low-1009, 32N, -8E?

48 hour surface forcast 06:08 UTC, Noaa
Intense low-998, 50N-38W
Gale
2 highs merging-1022, 32N-29W

 

[bluebyu]

From Dauntless 7:40 est:

The extra high helps as it allows me to figure out pressure gradient and therefore winds

Your correct, it's 8°E
A good habit to get into is to always put lat first, then long.
Then in a case like this, you can

You can just write:
L1015, 42,18, moving se18
(If movement, the arrow with number, is given)

Fyi lat/long it's not wrong as long as you put direction, but just easier

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.164077 Lon -21.017855


Here is Richard out to sea, teaching someone that needs some guidance, lessons on lat, long, and weather. Some day I would like to meet this couple!

 

[bluebyu]

From Dauntless 7:50 am est:

Ok that is all I need for today.
Since I go so slow, it's almost enough just to look at the current analysis.
That 48 means there

That 48 hr fcst means there still be a Hell of a sw flow bet the high and low..
I'll use that to push me ne

Thanks.
You got me on the right track again.
I had crappy night, but now all is good.
I've reduced rpm to 1400, as there is no


Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.151813 Lon -21.00307

 

[Rogerh]

Good job Blubyu. Not easy when your feeding info to a weather expert. Looks like he is settled back in now and though he is not headed the direction he wanted he should stay out of the bad stuff. From what I have looked at on sailing weather it agrees that in a day or two he will pick up a good northerly push. The gail will hopefully pass clear of him by the time he gets that far north. Now he needs to get some rest so he can stay sharp for the rest of the trip. I bet last night was a rough one.... Thanks again for helping him.

 

[bayview]

Too logical Bill.

 

[Ski in NC]

Looking at passageweather, it sure looks like staying S of 40N looks like a good idea for next few days. No weather guy here, though.

 

[BandB]

Now I hope his decision to limit his fuel doesn't cause him problems. I hope he will head to the nearest land. Always made sense to me if he was going to single hand. Then easy to move on up day by day to his destination. Portugal awaits him.

 

[hollywood8118]

Hmm,,,, everybody here seems to agree that being drunk and boating is a bad thing. But boating while sleep deprived is.....almost heroic!?

Didn't Get Enough Sleep? You Might As Well Be Drunk - Forbes

Heroic?

Get a clue.. I am sure he would much rather have crew.. but he is smart enough and willing to do what he needs to to keep going.. picking up just anybody as crew has proven to be bad on many occasions.. If he sits around and takes the time to find crew he could be there a long time. And the weather and seasons wait for no one.

HOLLYWOOD

 

[Art]

In Trust I Pray for Richard! I also wish best luck to... Mr. Passagemaker!

TM members that are diligently assisting Richard during his near-epic pleasure boat, motor craft journey should get "special mention" in the article (short story or marine book??) that ensues.

Happy Passage Daze, Richard! - Art

 

[sunchaser]

What Richard is doing is a piece of cake in comparison to Sir Francis Chichister's travels. Have a friend who singlehanded about 70% from NZ to CA.

That said, the last 24 hours will get very congested with commercial traffic so getting sleep now is important.

 

[Capt.Bill11]

Heroic?

Get a clue.. I am sure he would much rather have crew.. but he is smart enough and willing to do what he needs to to keep going.. picking up just anybody as crew has proven to be bad on many occasions.. If he sits around and takes the time to find crew he could be there a long time. And the weather and seasons wait for no one.

HOLLYWOOD

I must have missed the part where I advocated getting "just anybody" as crew. Pushing to meet a scheduled has gotten many a captain in trouble.

I'm sure he'll make it sooner or later just fine. But better later safely if need be than pushing for sooner and putting himself at risk.

 

[Moonstruck]

Now I hope his decision to limit his fuel doesn't cause him problems. I hope he will head to the nearest land. Always made sense to me if he was going to single hand. Then easy to move on up day by day to his destination. Portugal awaits him.

That could be a good bet. I think Richard will weigh his options and do the prudent thing. After all he did make an unplanned stop in NS. He has to process a lot of info, and use his years of experience in the weather business.

 

[dannc]

I got some acknowledgement messages from Richard. He received my texts. Hopefully he was not asleep.

He says he only needs info from the 48 hour surface charts so that makes it a bit easier to send him the data.

Later,
Dan

As soon as I could this morning, I sent Richard info from the latest current and 48 hour surface charts for the weather around him and up to Ireland.

He seems be in for a bouncy ride due to some small lows in his area.

Later,
Dan

 

[dannc]

I take it he has no way to access this kind of information on his own while offshore and away from the Internet?

As far as I know, he does not have Internet access or access to weather fax.

I was sending him texts up to about 11:15PM EST and I was afraid I would wake him but he was already awake. I have not heard back from him this morning so maybe he is sleeping.

Later,
Dan

 

[BandB]

I must have missed the part where I advocated getting "just anybody" as crew. Pushing to meet a scheduled has gotten many a captain in trouble.

I'm sure he'll make it sooner or later just fine. But better later safely if need be than pushing for sooner and putting himself at risk.

How many times have we discussed and advised against letting a schedule control the decisions. We often think of that to be referring to weather conditions and letting them override a schedule. Certainly it would apply if boat maintenance was needed. If the cruisers were ill, it would. If one had an autopilot or steering down and was waiting for a part, we'd surely say to wait. Well, I consider the need for sleep and therefore for at least a companion capable of just keeping watch a few hours at a time just as essential.

Now, I know of all those who have sailed around the world single handed and have read the stories of many of them. No doubt it's possible. No doubt what Richard is doing is possible. Hoping he has no problems. But I still would advise anyone against doing it. We need to be careful while praising his courage and his skill that we don't leave an impression it's appropriate to cross single handed. None of us can quantify the danger, but I think anyone would say it increases the risks.

Wifey B: Oh if he was alone in that situation I know what kind of crew or companions my hubby would get....hehe. Well, I at least know who would be volunteering. But he wouldn't do anything bad...not unless I was with him too.

As a wife, if he was doing this alone, he wouldn't be the only one getting no sleep. I'd be a wreck too and I'm normally the calm one.

 

[dannc]

How great to be a wx guy with another wx guy passing you the play-by-play of the storms as you cross the Atlantic! And we all get to follow along in real time from the comfort of our recliners. Gotta love the new technology that makes it all possible.

Batten the hatches, Richard!! You da man!!

I dont' think I would call myself a weatherman. All I have done is read three weather books and taken a whopping three hours of class time taught by Lee Chesneau. One of our To Do's is to take Lee's week longish class. I have read his book and need to reread it probably a dozen times but taking his longer class is a must do for us. I have much to learn that is for sure but I try to look at weather charts at least once a day for the north Atlantic and Pacific. Soon I will switch to look at the south Pacific with the cyclones season changes.

From what I can find so far, we in the US and I assume the EU, have pretty danged good weather data. What I have found for the western Pacific is ok but not even close to the quality of the US data. One thing our tax dollars do get right.

The technology is amazing. Even though we can only send/receive 160 character texts, the fact that we can send and receive to a guy on a wee little boat thousands of miles away is magic. I could tell Richard's texts where getting to me very quickly.

I am curious if the weather charts/predictions are matching the conditions Richard is seeing.

Later,
Dan

 

[FF]

>He says he only needs info from the 48 hour surface charts so that makes it a bit easier to send him the data.<

When we traveled offshore the tick was a very stable ham radio , usually an Icom , a weather fax box and a simple device that allowed chart printing.

By now I would expect the ham radio (needs SSB) would hook up to a computer with a cheap app, and dozens of charts , world wide would be available as they are transmitted , and as always free.

If I remember the entire listing of what is sent world wide is huge and as long as one can read the numbering system useful.

At that time the Icom was preferred as it was stable enough to make calls to the overseas ATT, if you had an account.

 

[Capt.Bill11]

SAT phone & OCENS software. You batch download the weather charts and reports you want. Then you open and view the files on your computer.

OCENS

 

[bluebyu]

As Moonstruck said, Richard seems to look at options, see post #525.

Offering him research into other ports, if he was to change his destination, he responds:

Ok.
I'm looking at that now in fact.
I only have fuel for 11+ days. If I get turned north by tomorrow, then that's 10 days total.
Plan B is the old plan A

Which was to stop in Galicia.
But that adds 300 miles or +2 days. And I'm already bored!
Hopefully, I'll get out of these strong northeasterlies by morning

I have pilot books and cruising guides for pretty much all of western Europe coast.
My current route and dest I'd actually like plan T.

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 40.862597 Lon -20.587993

 

[ksanders]

How many times have we discussed and advised against letting a schedule control the decisions. We often think of that to be referring to weather conditions and letting them override a schedule. Certainly it would apply if boat maintenance was needed. If the cruisers were ill, it would. If one had an autopilot or steering down and was waiting for a part, we'd surely say to wait. Well, I consider the need for sleep and therefore for at least a companion capable of just keeping watch a few hours at a time just as essential.

Now, I know of all those who have sailed around the world single handed and have read the stories of many of them. No doubt it's possible. No doubt what Richard is doing is possible. Hoping he has no problems. But I still would advise anyone against doing it. We need to be careful while praising his courage and his skill that we don't leave an impression it's appropriate to cross single handed. None of us can quantify the danger, but I think anyone would say it increases the risks.

Wifey B: Oh if he was alone in that situation I know what kind of crew or companions my hubby would get....hehe. Well, I at least know who would be volunteering. But he wouldn't do anything bad...not unless I was with him too.

As a wife, if he was doing this alone, he wouldn't be the only one getting no sleep. I'd be a wreck too and I'm normally the calm one.

I would argue just the opposite.

He is taking on a level of risk he finds acceptable.

We do not need to eliminate or even minimize the risks. I would argue that thoughtful analysis and acceptance of risk is ok, so long as we understand that risk.

Just because you would not accept that risk does not make it bad. It just means that you personally would not accept the risk.

Each of us has different levels of risk that we are willing to accept. Personally I have no issue at all with Richards and applaud his bravery and his efforts

 

[harbor950]

I would argue just the opposite.


Just because you would not accept that risk does not make it bad. It just means that you personally would not accept the risk.

Each of us has different levels of risk that we are willing to accept. Personally I have no issue at all with Richards and applaud his bravery and his efforts

He is taking these risks in an effort to reach a goal that he has considered, prepared for and dreamed of for at least five years and is probably taking more risk than he would on a regular basis.
This is likely the only way he would achieve this goal in his circumstances and that in his view and mine makes it worth extra risk.

The risks he has chosen are his and with a lack of bad luck are going to lead to quite an accomplishment and a satisfaction that has justified taking the risks to my way of thinking.

 

[BandB]

I would argue just the opposite.

He is taking on a level of risk he finds acceptable.

We do not need to eliminate or even minimize the risks. I would argue that thoughtful analysis and acceptance of risk is ok, so long as we understand that risk.

Just because you would not accept that risk does not make it bad. It just means that you personally would not accept the risk.

Each of us has different levels of risk that we are willing to accept. Personally I have no issue at all with Richards and applaud his bravery and his efforts

I fully understand he considers the risk acceptable and obviously I would never take the risk.

But I would also advise others against doing the same. Note that I did not state it was bad, just I wouldn't advise it. If they still choose to that's fine. But if I'm asked or it's discussed with me, I'd still advise against. I do hope his crossing encourages others to do so. But I also hope it does not encourage others to do it single handed. And right now I worry as he's tired, dealing with potential weather issues, and potentially low on fuel. The fuel is a separate issue as he gave budget as a reason but I assume later he would use it anyway. I'm sure right now he does wish he had another day or two worth.

Now I fully support Richard and want to cheer him on. But I also think all aspects have to be honestly discussed so those deciding in the future can make the decision best for them.

And, yes, there are those who thought we were crazy crossing the Gulf of Alaska and later cruising back outside with a run from Sitka to Port Angeles. Factually, we did add risk by doing so. As with Richard, it was an acceptable risk to us. Still if others say they wouldn't advise it, that's reasonable.

And whether I should or not, I will worry about Richard until he reaches shore. But then I'd probably do the same if Julie was still with him, just not quite as much.

 

[Capt.Bill11]

"We do not need to eliminate or even minimize the risks. "



The first part I agree with.

The second part is kind of silly. And if it were true there would be no need to read any weather reports, get any sleep, set anchor alarms, or carry spare parts, file a float plan, etc.

"Just because you would not accept that risk does not make it bad."

The crew of the Bounty might disagree, in hind sight at least.

 

[dannc]

Does anyone have a contact with the people running TrawlerFest?

Richard is asking what he would need to do to give a talk about weather while on a passage at TrawlerFest.

Later,
Dan

 

[Capt.Bill11]

Peggie could answer that question I would think.

 

[bluebyu]

Richard and I were just chatting about jokes and different junk, he had said he was bored...
2:30 pm est from Dauntless:

Here is a great quote you can pass to everybody:
" are you a spectator watching a fire from across the lake"
That's almost as good as, "

" your half of the boat is sinking"

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 40.774845 Lon -20.43869

 

[dannc]

Peggie could answer that question I would think.

Who is Peggie? The expert on boat toilets? I wanted to use the nautical term for toilets but there is no way I could write the word and not make it sound crude.

Later,
Dan