It’s Showtime

[bluebyu]

Just asking Richard how he is doing...Any thought on new destination...what time zone he is in....If he is getting ready to nap...
From Dauntless 1:43 est:

I'm up. I'm on Zulu time.
I've just turned neck (back?) to original course, 030° I still have NE winds but they've decreased

To 12-16 kts.
6-8' NE waves at short 7" pd
So I'm only turning 1200rpm, making 3 kts.
I'm waiting for the sw winds to appear do (so?) I can fly North

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 40.115278 Lon -18.769733

 

[HeyJude]

Fuel in Gibraltar

When we visited Gibraltar in Mar '14 our guide pointed out the numerous large vessels at anchor in the bay. Said most were there for fuel because the country taxes fuel at either zero or at a much lower rate than other Med countries.

 

[ghost]

Just got home, had to immediately check progress. Consider me addicted.

 

[bluebyu]

From M/V Dauntless, 2:36pm, 8-22:

If I can stay on this course, I only have 6 days, 5 nights to dest.
But this is NOT an efficient speed for me. At best I'm doing 3nm/gal.

So winds will decide my next stop.

I'd take a video of the pitching, but it's hard to stand.

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 40.118518 Lon -18.767997

 

[dannc]

An hour or so back, I sent Richard the latest info on highs and lows around him. There are two dissipating lows east and west of his position. The lows have been dissipating for some time. There is high pressure to the north of him which is goodness. He just has to get out between those two lows.

Way off to the east is a pretty big low pressure that will be heading to Ireland but at this point the forecasts show it going NNE and not hitting Ireland. Prior 96 hour forecast had the low hitting Ireland. 96 hours from now, the fore cast has a front that stretches from Jacksonville FLA to the UK that will bare watching. There are lows in the front that are going to be messy. One is a gale now. A day or so ago this front was forecast to be stretching from Jacksonville to France so it has moved counter clockwise a bit to the north. If the movement continues, the way may be clear to get to Ireland.

It sure would be nice to have a fast Dashew FPB 64...

Later,
Dan

 

[bluebyu]

From Richard, 3:57 est, may be in response to DANNC weather info:

I hope to be just west of high with approaching low to my west.
That's what I need.
Tomorrow

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 40.25662 Lon -18.678325

 

[dannc]

From Richard, 3:57 est, may be in response to DANNC weather info:

I hope to be just west of high with approaching low to my west.
That's what I need.
Tomorrow

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 40.25662 Lon -18.678325

I sent him the latest data and my comments that I posted. I think he had already figured out what he needed to do based on earlier data and the latest data just confirmed his decision. The latest data had not changed much.

If he can get the High to his east, ie starboard, he will have the clockwise circulation. With the Low(s) to his west, ie port, he will have counter clockwise circulation and he can scoot up the middle. In theory.

The two lows east and west of him have beaten him up. In HINDSIGHT, if he could have, he should have continued N or NE. HINDSIGHT is a wonderful thing. Richard thinks his change of course was a mistake, I am not so sure given the information on hand 24-48 hours ago.

Not sure what I would have done. Earlier 48/96 hour forecasts had some worrisome weather at Ireland when he was approaching. That is still possible but the weather FORECAST is not as bad as it was 24-48 hours ago since the front goes north of it's previous forecast.

I just looked at the Met forecast and they have the front bowing out toward Richard's possible position as early as 48 hours with a Low at 997MB right of the south of Ireland in 84 hours. The Met forecast is similar to the earlier NOAA forecasts a day or two ago. Which forecast is right?

It is VERY educational that a weather guy with Richard's experience struggles to figure out the right course/decision. Humbling.

Later,
Dan

 

[bayview]

Does anyone but me think he needs to find a port to rest and recoup before crossing into the heavy traffic area ahead?

 

[deckofficer]

Does anyone but me think he needs to find a port to rest and recoup before crossing into the heavy traffic area ahead?

After looking at an expanded scale of his last 48 hours, I would question the looped track. Anyone know the reason behind the mid course loop?

 

[bluebyu]

Deckofficer,

See post #509 for the loop I think you are referencing.

 

[BruceK]

I don`t have an entirely good feeling about this, probably just me. It is great how much help Richard and Dauntless are getting, you guys are wonderful.
The difference between a voyage like this with a powerboat, and a sailboat, is that a sailboat has a near inexhaustible supply of "fuel", provided the mast and sails are ok, greater flexibility when things turn.
Great seamanship, a fine boat, and massive support, should see them safe.

 

[Capt.Bill11]

Does anyone but me think he needs to find a port to rest and recoup before crossing into the heavy traffic area ahead?

+1

 

[ghost]

His comment about the pitching got my attention. It's not even a close comparison, but reminds me of a particular day crossing the straight of Georgia. We were running south in 6 to 7's wanting to make Nanaimo, but it was just slow going and we could not easily get as easterly of course as we wanted. The boat could more than handle it. After six hours of jogging in that stuff, I just wanted off the ride. Like I said, the boat could more than take it, but it's one of those days where you have to work, pick and choose almost every single wave. Auto pilot or not, it was just soooo tiring. That was only about six hours. I think the strain here is not the severity of the conditions, it's clearly the duration. Somewhat boring and yet you can't hardly walk away for a real break.

I'm trying to imagine days of this. It's got to get heavy to keep rolling that rock up hill.

I'll be thinking if him tonight. I sure hope he gets a breather by tomorrow.

 

[deckofficer]

Deckofficer,

See post #509 for the loop I think you are referencing.

I just reread #509 and it doesn't explain a 16 nm counter-clockwise loop. It was like he couldn't turn to starboard for a course change. And it wasn't a Williamson turn for a MOB drill. You have to scale to 1 mile per division to see the details of the course loop.

 

[sunchaser]

Did Richard top up with fuel in the Azores?

 

[Ski in NC]

I'm sure he picked up fuel there, but may not have topped up. Sounds like he has minimal margin for landing in Ireland considering conditions.

I too would make nearest landfall (Portugal, or North Spain) to regroup and recover.

Easy to pick weather when you only have a couple day run ahead.

 

[dannc]

I just reread #509 and it doesn't explain a 16 nm counter-clockwise loop. It was like he couldn't turn to starboard for a course change. And it wasn't a Williamson turn for a MOB drill. You have to scale to 1 mile per division to see the details of the course loop.

Richard will have to explain what was on his mind at that time. But...

At about that time, the weather reports 48 and 96 hours out were not good and I think the wind and waves around Dauntless were a concern so he changed course. I think this happened fairly late EST, maybe 23:00 or 24:00? I think Richard was finding that the 48 hour reports were not helpful because the weather was moving/changing faster than Dauntless could move.

The lack of information about the current and 24 hour conditions in his area might have influenced his decisions.

I was giving 48 and 96 hour data from the surface, 500 MB, wind, and wave charts. What was most helpful was going to the current charts but we did not know this at that time. 24 hour charts might be useful but they do not extend from the US to Europe. Only the western part of the Atlantic is covered on the 24 hour charts so we have focused on the current surface conditions. I think Richard is using that data to figure out future weather patterns based on local conditions and sets his course.

However, I have been sending 48 and 96 hour data if it looked like there was information that might help his decisions. He has to make decision(s) based on whatever weather data people are providing, his experience, and his local conditions. Some/much of this data is based on computer models and the accuracy of future predictions is problematic to say the least.

I hope Richard has been taking notes on his thoughts and why he has made certain decisions at a given time. This would be very educational to hear. These are not always easy decisions.

Later,
Dan

 

[sunchaser]

Lisbon marine weather looks pretty good with wind 15 to 20 kits, pressure steady and waves about 1 meter. But what is it between his current position and Lisbon?

 

[Ski in NC]

Yea, north of 41 or 42N looks rough. South, pretty good. From passageweather.

 

[HopCar]

I had a brief text chat with Richard today. I told him to keep the DeLorme working because if he dropped off the grid, he'd have twenty guys calling the CG.

He said "Ok. I wish I had a cat." I think he means a feline type cat, not a two hull boat. He's thinking of my office cat. They became good friends when Richard was living at my store.

Take a look at the animated winds website: earth :: an animated map of global wind, weather, and ocean conditions

I don't know much about weather maps so this helps me see what is happening.
Wind goes clockwise around a high? Counter clockwise around a low?
If you plot his position on this it looks to me that he's headed right into the center of a high. That's good, right?

 

[bluebyu]

This morning from a well rested Richard, 5:30 est:

Ok
So I have a juicy question fit the TF.

Set the scene, curr course 008°T, wind 140°at 18kts, seas 3'+- 1'
I just did a trial run at diff rpms, the results

The results:
1300 rpm = 4.5kts
1400 = 4.7
1500 = 5.1
1600 = 5.9

What speed should I run?

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.201713 Lon -18.45465

 

[bluebyu]

More from Dauntless, about sleep, fuel, vessels sighted, watermaker:

Morning,
I had the best sleep ever last night. Almost embarrassed to say, between 22: & 09:30, I must have slept for 8 hrs, getting up only a few times, at

2.
Getting up at midnight and 06:00, and waking only a few times.
I think it's bc the last few days have been hard, but being back on course, let me rest easy

I Had asked him about the water maker:
Watermaker.
I pickled it before leaving Horta, as 300 gal of water is enough for one person and the aux pump died.

It will work wo aux pump, but then I would

I works have had to pickle it anyway in irl, so I figured I may as well stop it sooner.
Also, if I did need it, it's easy to get going again.

Asked Richard about seeing other vessels:
Oh yes,
After 2 days of seeing nothing or nobody. I did see 3 ships yesterday. One, never came up on AIS, but he was more that 8 miles away.

And I did use those ships to see how far I could lower the gain on radar to minimize false alarms.
It confirmed what I thought, that lowering gain down to

Lowering gain down to 5, it still sees big ass ships, me than 5 nm away, but not wave tops.
So another reason I slept better, no false alarms, but no worry

That I was seeing ships.
Also, I used the alarms better, by having a circle, but a mile away.

Had asked him about fuel, (somewhere else he had said he left Horta with 450 Gal):

New fuel figures:
I've used since Horta, 150 g
At 1.2 gal/hr or 4.1 nm/gal
Bc I didn't have full tanks, I've kept rpm <1600.


Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.302887 Lon -18.435873

 

[FF]

What speed should I run?

Need the fuel burn /hr too, not just the speed.

 

[bluebyu]

FF, sent Richard text with you question

 

[bluebyu]

Partly in answer to FF and a correction to above fuel use post:

Good question, glad to see they are paying attention.
One corr first, my fuel since Horta was 1.49g/h, & 4.1nm/h These numbers are estimates, like the wx

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.352582 Lon -18.425273

 

[Rogerh]

I would think we need the fuel burn per hour at each RPM that he is asking about. Correct FF?

 

[bluebyu]

From Dauntless, 7:07 am, est:

1300 rpm ,maybe 1 or 1.1 g/h
1400 1.3
1500 1.5
1600 1.7
1800 2.0

Now, I can fig out most eff speed, my question is an I missing something.

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.35859 Lon -18.424072

 

[Rogerh]

So, I am not an expert at this but at 1500 he is getting 3.4 kmiles per gal right?
at 1600 3.47 kmiles per gal. at 1300 4.5 km per gal, at 1400 3.6 km per gal.
So 1300 is the most efficient but 1600 is slightly better than 1500 if he wants to cut his time down. I think this is correct?

All of these numbers will vary with the conditions though. And his conditions will change a lot over the next 4 days. I think that is the only think that he did not mention but I know he knows that... Anyone else see anything that he might be missing?

 

[bluebyu]

Richard and I are talking about range, and nm per gallon, distance to go, etc. While in a past life I used to teach flying where fuel is king, my boating is I'm going over there, 20 miles away, fuel is never a concern...
I don't want to give him advice, but am gently trying to get the facts straight.

A few texts ago, Richard texted 4.1nm/h

He has replied to my concern about his range at 7:45 est:

Another eek moment
But it passed, your number is gal.
It's 4.1 nm/gal NOT nm/hr which = a knot


Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.421558 Lon -18.409975

 

[Rogerh]

It looks like to me he should have enough fuel if he burns at the rates he is talking about. My biggest concern is the rough seas and wind he will be running into starting Sunday evening through Tuesday and what that will do to his fuel burn. I have been using passagemaker.com for my info. Do you guys and gals see the weather that I am talking about. I mentioned the weather concern to Richard and suggested he contact Dannc to make sure that is accurate since I am not a weather person. I have not heard back from Richard.