It’s Showtime

[bluebyu]

From Dauntless 9:03 am est:

Update.
I've made my course a bit more n, do is now 003° As this puts the current seas almost right behind me, but more importantly, allow me to get pushed E

Edited, missed a text, 9:50 est:
Pushed east the last day or so as that storm moves ne ward.


Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.528148 Lon -18.38311

 

[Capt.Bill11]

Yes it looks like beam seas depending on where you are 3-5+ meters. I don't see how that will work.

 

[bayview]

I feel like I'm watching a slow motion crash. Look at his track and consider that decision making is a first victim of fatigue. Im not sure that all the advice he is getting is helping him.
IMO he should be making as much easting as weather allows.
Anyone else remember Donald Crowhurst?

 

[BandB]

Perseverance is a virtue. Stubbornness is not to a long range cruiser. The two are very close to each other. Going forward single handed, not carrying more fuel, and continuing to press for Ireland rather than detour through Portugal or Spain are all either one or the other.

 

[bluebyu]

Continueing the conversation with Richard about fuel, distance remaining etc., I had a key part wrong. Using online calculators for distance between different Lat/Lon, for example, his current position and Baltimore Ir, answers are usualy in KM(kilometer, not NM). He and I had a good exercise on time/dist/fuel burn, etc. He mostly correcting my errors.

From Dauntless over the last hour, roughly:

Thanks for keeping me on my toes.

I think I deserve the last piece of pecan pie that I've had frozen since Georgia in April.

But your number 323 is exactly what I used, so that leaving Horta with 450 gave me more than 100 gal reserve = 400 nm or 70 hours of running time at 6kt=420nm

Thanks for checking
actually, looking at everything, my gal/hr is actually lower, my first number was correct, it's closer to 1.2 gal/hr.

So now I have 300 gal remaining times 4nm/g =
1200 range.
Irl is only 700, so even if I must detour a bit.
I'm good to go.
Thanks.
I'll sleep even better tn

This is where he figured out I was using KM:

You're funny.
1350 was 5 days ago.
Att it's 705 direct, but will probably end up 750nm.

Could that be km?
1325km/1.8km/nm = 736 nm

You just want me to start the whole trip over


So 750nm /4nm/gal = 188 gal. It better yet, let's stick in a 20% reserve, 0.2x4=0.8 750/(4.0-0.8)= 750/3.2=234 gal.


Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 41.429465 Lon -18.408

 

[bayview]

Have a look at live ships map AIS to see the traffic ahead for a tired skipper speed limited by fuel concerns.

 

[Capt.Bill11]

Well with miscommunications like that at least he won't be bored.

 

[bluebyu]

I also think having a fuel stop in Portugal would be wise, more fuel and better rest. I have not said that to Richard.

Anyone here is free to text Dauntless, he likes the interaction.

When I was texting Richard about fuel, range, etc, mostly I try and do it asking questions, provoking a conversation about the facts.

This is HIS cruise, he is at sea not us.

In my view, only someone Richard knows, with the sea time behind them should freely give him advice. That is my view. Anyone here stating he should do this or he should do that is not adding any value. Richard can not read it.

If Richard ask for something, I think it is great many here are willing to send him a new tidbit of info that will, hopefully, help him to make good decisions.

 

[Animal]

I also think having a fuel stop in Portugal would be wise, more fuel and better rest. I have not said that to Richard.

Anyone here is free to text Dauntless, he likes the interaction.

When I was texting Richard about fuel, range, etc, mostly I try and do it asking questions, provoking a conversation about the facts.

This is HIS cruise, he is at sea not us.

In my view, only someone Richard knows, with the sea time behind them should freely give him advice. That is my view. Anyone here stating he should do this or he should do that is not adding any value. Richard can not read it.

If Richard ask for something, I think it is great many here are willing to send him a new tidbit of info that will, hopefully, help him to make good decisions.

I've kept my interaction with him limited to subjects I am keenly familiar with - the best pubs in Waterford!!

 

[sunchaser]

I also think having a fuel stop in Portugal would be wise, more fuel and better rest. I have not said that to Richard.

Anyone here is free to text Dauntless, he likes the interaction.

When I was texting Richard about fuel, range, etc, mostly I try and do it asking questions, provoking a conversation about the facts.

This is HIS cruise, he is at sea not us.

In my view, only someone Richard knows, with the sea time behind them should freely give him advice. That is my view. Anyone here stating he should do this or he should do that is not adding any value. Richard can not read it.

If Richard ask for something, I think it is great many here are willing to send him a new tidbit of info that will, hopefully, help him to make good decisions.

Yes BUT --- Richard chose to use this and other Forums over the years for advice and feedback on his planned travels. In this case, the social networks may not be your friend.

The only comment I have regards Post 426 where he elected to go light on fuel while in Horta. For future blue water travelers on long voyages, my unsolicted advice is to go long not light on food, water, fuel or sail cloth.

Godspeed Richard

 

[bayview]

I wish him the best but would not communicate with him. IMO single point of contact is best to limit confusion and disturb his thinking. We can debate all we want at the dock but not now. He has his trusted contacts so my comments are for their consideration.

 

[hollywood8118]

Looking at the GRIB files for the next few days does cause me to raise a eyebrow.. If he was under sail I would say it would be a interesting ride Monday and Tuesday.. depending on speed he could get some lighter headwinds as he gets closer to the Islands.
Being under power, 25-30kts off the rear quarters and the stern is not a killer.. but can be a real handful.. depending on how good the KK42 surfs and how strong her autopilot is. Taking into consideration he is solo I would more that likely if it was me, get to the beach sooner and re-group.. Shipping traffic is going to go way up, weather concerns, fatigue, possible language issues between vessels all need to factor into the decision to continue vs a pit stop.
We got creamed for 7 days once in the mid Pacific by a system that came out of nowhere and popped up on the forecast maps as it hit us, we got to experience what happens when fatigue and other factors all come together to kick even prudent seamanship in the ass. It is a big ocean out there.
I am sure Richard will make the decision to do what he feels is correct for his situation.. every voyage and experience gives us knowledge to step up our abilities and deal with the next voyage.

HOLLYWOOD

 

[BandB]

Yes BUT --- Richard chose to use this and other Forums over the years for advice and feedback on his planned travels. In this case, the social networks may not be your friend.

The only comment I have regards Post 426 where he elected to go light on fuel while in Horta. For future blue water travelers on long voyages, my unsolicted advice is to go long not light on food, water, fuel or sail cloth.

Godspeed Richard

This is Richard's cruise. But it's being discussed on a public forum. I gave any opinion to him prior to him leaving the Azores and no point now to repeat that to him as it's too late so not going to bother him with such things. He's going to do as he wishes and that is fine. However, here in a public forum it is a learning experience for others, current and future. It will be here for all those considering such a trip. And there are things to be learned. I would concur with sunchaser and expand to not go short on food, water, fuel, sail cloth, sleep or hands on board.

That's the difference between a forum and a blog. And no reason to send these comments his way at this time. I think and hope it's all going to work out for him doing it his way. But that doesn't mean that's necessarily the most advisable way.

It's a learning experience and reminder for me as well as we do have a future crossing planned. I was very impressed by much of his preparation and by his detour prior to starting the major crossing. Textbook in how to get ready. Decisions in the Azores, not so much so, but still hoping and believing all will work out for him.

 

[Art]

My prayers and best wishes are always with Richard. This is an extremely interesting thread to follow. It has surely influenced my opinion in doing similar to as Richard is accomplishing. Get it on Richard and... Good Luck!

 

[Forkliftt]

A simple request please. Can someone post a link to track the progress again? I can't seem to access the early posts on my iPhone.
This is great stuff.


1983 Present 42 Sundeck
Twin Lehman 135's

 

[dannc]

A simple request please. Can someone post a link to track the progress again? I can't seem to access the early posts on my iPhone.
This is great stuff.


1983 Present 42 Sundeck
Twin Lehman 135's

https://share.delorme.com/Dauntless

I will post more thoughts later but I am working on weather updates for Richard.

Later,
Dan

 

[ksanders]

.

I find it amusing to read some of the comments on this thread where "sailors" who have never had, and never will have the bravery or fortitude to take on what Richard has, judge his wisdom, or his decision making skills.

Hats off to you Richard!

 

[Capt.Bill11]

This is an interesting site for weather information and how to interpret it.

Introduction to Frank's Weather Site for Sailors/ Franks-Weather | The Weather Window

 

[sunchaser]

I find it amusing to read some of the comments on this thread where "sailors" who have never had, and never will have the bravery or fortitude to take on what Richard has, judge his wisdom, or his decision making skills.

Hats off to you Richard!

Years ago when offshore racing the navigator of choice on one boat I crewed was a WWII pilot from the Pacific campaign. He did not like the water after dozens of carrier sorties. Nor was he a lifetime boater but his decision making skills when it came to getting us there and reading the weather were superb.

I will be the first to admit I lack the bravery to do it Richard's way. But "Lessons Learned" as the outcome of this trip will be helpful to many of us who are interested.

 

[Forkliftt]

https://share.delorme.com/Dauntless



I will post more thoughts later but I am working on weather updates for Richard.



Later,

Dan

1983 Present 42 Sundeck
Twin Lehman 135's

 

[Forkliftt]

Thanks Dan


1983 Present 42 Sundeck
Twin Lehman 135's

 

[dannc]

Just sent some texts to Richard with data from current, 48 and 96 hours surface charts along with some wave and wind data.

The only person who has the most complete weather information is Richard.

We might have more data but the accuracy of the data is questionable. Richard does know what is happening at his location. He can watch the barometer and temperature. He knows the size of the waves, their period, and direction. He knows the wind direction and speed. He can see the clouds. He can see the changes in all of the above which is just as important.

We can only look at the forecasts which have changed in very important ways over the last several days. The forecasts are based on computer programming, and in some cases human opinions, on what is happening thousands of miles at sea. Richard can make predictions with the REAL data at his position.

NONE of this is certain which is what makes it interesting, challenging and yes, risky.

If one is going to do long ocean crossings in a traditional trawler there is just no way to outrun the weather. One is going to get hit by storms. One can avoid the worst part of most storms but one is still going to have bad weather. The front that has been moving slowly across the Atlantic is going to hit Richard at some point. His only option to avoid it would be to head to Spain or Portugal and wait for another weather window. He would then have to implement his first plan to France, then to the UK and finally Ireland. Nothing wrong with that plan either. If he tried to head back to Ireland from Spain/Portugal, he still has the same distance to cover and the same weather risks.

Richard is still heading north to Ireland. I think that is what I would do too.

If you are going to cross oceans expect to the ocean to spank your a...ss. Its going to happen. One just needs to minimize the a...ss spanking.

Now if we could afford a Dashew FPB 64 we could really minimize risk. Dauntless could easily get to Ireland if she could do 240 NM a day.

The model boat we are planning to buy has handled 30 foot seas. The 96 hour forecast at Ireland is for 9 foot seas. I don't know what Dauntless can do.

One option Richard has is to slow down and let the low pass Ireland. There is another Low that in 5 days will be over the Azores *** IF *** the 96 hour forecast is right. The previous 96 hour forecasts have had lows at the tip of Ireland but they then moved north. Where will the Irish low go?

Later,
Dan

 

[dannc]

I got a message from Richard a little while ago.

I hope that's one thing people get out if this. Forecasts are a tool, but simply can't be your primary tool.

This is VERY VERY VERY important to understand. Helping Richards has really driven that message home to me.

Richard has a great deal of weather knowledge and experience the predates the weather models in use.

Later,
Dan

 

[BandB]

Weather forecasts over an ocean crossing are fairly accurate over a certain number of days, but as you add days based on speed and distance, the probability of change obviously increases. While Richard would prefer not to have them, 9-10' waves are within a range he and his boat can handle. In such a crossing you prefer 6' and under but you simply hope to avoid the 20'+. And actually you go in a boat that can handle them. 40' is another story entirely. You're very right that you don't undertake such a crossing expecting good weather all the way.

I don't think Richard has faced any conditions he wasn't prepared for or that he didn't anticipate somewhere along the way. He was probably pleasantly surprised to encounter so little bad conditions on the way to the Azores.

 

[Capt.Bill11]

"The model boat we are planning to buy has handled 30 foot seas. The 96 hour forecast at Ireland is for 9 foot seas. I don't know what Dauntless can do."

The forecast on Passage Weather is for 3 meter seas. Which is almost 10 feet. And wave forecasts are generally not forecasting what the highest waves will be but what a certain percentage of the waves will be. There will always be a percentage of larger wave and even a percentage of much larger waves thrown in there.

http://www.mxak.org/weather/waves.pdf

With luck the on site conditions will be better than the predicted ones.

 

[dannc]

...
The forecast on Passage Weather is for 3 meter seas. Which is almost 10 feet. And wave forecasts are generally not forecasting what the highest waves will be but what a certain percentage of the waves will be. There will always be a percentage of larger wave and even a percentage of much larger waves thrown in there....

The wave height prediction is the average height of the highest one third of the waves. Average is the key word. The highest wave could be twice the average. So it is possible that Richard could get a 20 foot wave. However, the highest wave is usually not that large but I figure if it was me, I would plan for the wave that was twice the average.

Later,
Dan

 

[bluebyu]

Just said hello, no need to respond if he is resting, told him Dannc sent weather info, From Dauntless 6:23 pm est:

Thanks.
I'm gonna rest now.
Yes got the wx data

Night

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 42.438662 Lon -18.339465

 

[deckofficer]

Average diesel cost for Ireland as of today (converted from Euros per liter to USD per gallon) $7.31.

Saudi Arabia $0.38

Libya $0.45 and much closer to Med cruising.

Gives a bit of credence to Dashew's FPB 64 design criteria. With 3400 gallons of fuel tankage a fill up in Ireland would be $25K, Libya $1462. With a cruising range of 6400 nm @ 9 kt, that is a lot of cruising for the buck.

 

[hollywood8118]

Average diesel cost for Ireland as of today (converted from Euros per liter to USD per gallon) $7.31.

Saudi Arabia $0.38

Libya $0.45 and much closer to Med cruising.

Gives a bit of credence to Dashew's FPB 64 design criteria. With 3400 gallons of fuel tankage a fill up in Ireland would be $25K, Libya $1462. With a cruising range of 6400 nm @ 9 kt, that is a lot of cruising for the buck.

Thread creep...
As in all phases of yacht ownership just calculating the fuel burn and capacity of a Dashew boat is only part of the equation.. yes they are fuel efficient at higher speeds.. but have you priced one of those things?. you can get a Nordhavn and a lot of fuel for the cost of a FPB. And Sailors get clipped in fast boats too.. because they believe they can out run the weather.. doesn't always happen though.
HOLLYWOOD

 

[Rambler]

Well, it looks to me that at his current speed and course he'll be closer to Ireland than anyplace else by Sunday night or Monday morning. And not to mix in two other threads, but I believe we're all praying for his safe arrival and when he does reach port, we'll all hoist a tall cold one in celebration.