PM story on a sunken GB in Hopetown

[Shrew]

Society is becoming too politically correct. Discussing a mistake is no more 'attacking' someone, than disagreeing with someone is Not Supporting them.

It is how we learn to hopefully avoid the same mistake ourselves if/when presented with a similar situation.

If someone wants to cut off a finger because they think it will look good, I'm not going to encourage them out of fear of offending them.

 

[Group9]

I would submit that if one is to learn from another persons experiences then they need to be completely honest with their assessment.

We try to do this in as nice of a way as possible, but rest assured that many organizations analyze situations looking for the root cause. They are not doing this to punish, or belittle people, they do this to gather data and learn from that data so that the same situation is not repeated.

Exactly. We all have sympathy, but we all want to learn from this and make sure it doesn't happen to us.

 

[Fletcher500]

I have been following along on this thread, but not commenting because I know nothing about running from Hurricanes.

I applaud the boat owner for posting his story. That takes guts because there will always be second guessing when it hits the Web.

Overall, this has been an interesting thread and educational.

 

[Bigsfish]

My opinion is in trying to judge if you made a good choice or poor choice depends on the outcome. Machiavelli would be proud.

Scott has more experience in this type of life saving or not than anyone I know. If he advised me to do something I would follow his advise and if the out come was good I would forever thank him, but if I died I would find a way to get in his glass of wine and stare at him with every sip.

 

[PacNW]

Judging others with hind site from the comfort and safety is a fools earned. What is apparent now may not have been apparent then. They made what they thought was the right decision and now the Monday morning quaterbacks pile on with online shaming. Sad.

As for the example of riding out the fire. There where people in Paradise California who tried the same thing. They died. Not every situation identical or predictable.

 

[psneeld]

It's not a fools errand if specifics are discussed and not a thumbs up or down on the one person.



If you didn't notice a whole lot of people had to make boat decisions in the face of Dorien, let alone other canes we have ridden out. Armchair QBing? Not exactly for all of us.

 

[PacNW]

If you didn't notice a lot of people were second guess and judging in hind site and blaming him for his decision. Only fools and cowards engage in that sort of behavior.

 

[Tingum]

This story irritated me. Why didn't these people run from the storm? They sunk a nice boat, consumed resources that could have gone to others and put their lives at risk.

And a somewhat broader question, why did I see so many large boats get ruined? I can understand someone not being able to flee a storm in a tiny center console, but there's a 70ft Marlow overturned in GTC and I saw several convertibles. Could the owner of a 2m boat not afford a captain to run it stateside? In the end, these sunken boats damage the environment around them, take time and money to remove and ultimately drive up insurance rates for the rest of us.

https://www.passagemaker.com/trawle...cyF08sWscTWGyGMzxPHHK3R709S3MAoMIu4LZKVlM_7ZE

What am I missing?[/QUOT

You are very naive and inexperienced if you would try and out run a 225mph cat 5 Hurricane in an eight knot trawler. Haven’t you seen the total devastation from that storm. Friends that tied their boats in the mangroves lost them, only 1 GTC ferry survived. Most hauled out boats were knocked over. I normally say leaving boats in a marina for a hurricane is stupid but in this case it made no difference. I know of a few that survived on very heavy moorings and were lucky enough not to be hit by anything. Feel free to critique my commits, after all I have only held a Merchant Marine Masters license for 38 years.

 

[jimisbell]

Not really the same at all. While I'm glad your efforts paid off, and I'm certainly not diminishing your efforts, it's entirely different than +20' storm surge rolling through an entire area, wiping damn near everything off the map. Other than evacuating the area entirely, there IS NO measure that would have worked.

So, yeah, it boils down to the gamble of 'do we spend to evacuate' or 'do we risk the loss'. Humans are often terribly bad at effectively evaluating risks like this.

And there's perhaps an even more terrible trait of seeking almost vengeful delight in criticizing those whose choices didn't 'measure up'.

Me, I side on avoiding the hassle of having to re-acquire a boat, and often 'waste' money/effort prepping/moving/hauling-out. I do it because I don't want to have to undergo the hassle of finding a replacement. But I keep decent insurance coverage, and recognize the deductible hit I'm going to take, just in case. For me, it's a luxury item. If it was a live-aboard, I'd probably be among the 'get out ahead of time' crowd. Better safe than sorry. But at the same time I'm not eagerly looking to savage the decisions other people make if their choice goes wrong.

Unless Del Ray Beach is in the Abacos and he ran and saved his boat, he shouldnt be second guessing anyone.
When Harvey hit Texas at Cat 4 strength, I left and headed 200 miles inland. My boat was left to fend for itself. My wife was sick and I determined that 2 weeks without power could kill her and the rest of my life without the boat would be a cheap price to pay to keep her alive.
Turns out that it was exactly 2 weeks without power and 4 weeks without hospital facilities. The day of the hit, we were in Austin and she was admitted to the hospital. She got out 4 days later, 5 weeks before there was ANY hospital up and running at home.

My boat survived without a scratch while the marina next door was trashed beyond belief.
Human life outweighs a few yards of fiberglass, and I dont care what happens to your insurance rates.........got it!

I DONT CARE, if its just a boat.

 

[psneeld]

If you didn't notice a lot of people were second guess and judging in hind site and blaming him for his decision. Only fools and cowards engage in that sort of behavior.

Strong words also from behind a keyboard



Isn't that just as bad as those you claim to be doing something wrong to someone else?


Why don't you address their specific wrongs and point out why they are over the top.

 

[psneeld]

OTE=Tingum;802058]

This story irritated me. Why didn't these people run from the storm? They sunk a nice boat, consumed resources that could have gone to others and put their lives at risk.

And a somewhat broader question, why did I see so many large boats get ruined? I can understand someone not being able to flee a storm in a tiny center console, but there's a 70ft Marlow overturned in GTC and I saw several convertibles. Could the owner of a 2m boat not afford a captain to run it stateside? In the end, these sunken boats damage the environment around them, take time and money to remove and ultimately drive up insurance rates for the rest of us.

https://www.passagemaker.com/trawle...cyF08sWscTWGyGMzxPHHK3R709S3MAoMIu4LZKVlM_7ZE

What am I missing?[/QUOT

You are very naive and inexperienced if you would try and out run a 225mph cat 5 Hurricane in an eight knot trawler. Haven’t you seen the total devastation from that storm. Friends that tied their boats in the mangroves lost them, only 1 GTC ferry survived. Most hauled out boats were knocked over. I normally say leaving boats in a marina for a hurricane is stupid but in this case it made no difference. I know of a few that survived on very heavy moorings and were lucky enough not to be hit by anything. Feel free to critique my commits, after all I have only held a Merchant Marine Masters license for 38 years.

Out run a 225 mph Cat 5 storm? Does it matter what size storm or how fast it is and predicted to move?


Naive? Seems to abound in this discussion...if you base a person's experience in a few sentences/paragraphs.


I too have a few years as a pro and that helps make my decision over power of the storm..also it's size matters to me...not just power.


The bottom line always will be those who escaped, those who lost, and what happened to those escaping but didn't make it.


There's a lot of hard feelings on both sides yet so much talk without really discussing the whole picture.

 

[tdomenech]

I hardly think anybody wanted their boat to sink. You make a call and sometimes you're right other times you're wrong. Monday morning Quarterbacking, I'd say. It is hard to know where to go sometimes and it is REALLY hard to know where a hurricane is going.

 

[psneeld]

I disagree, the vast majority f the time, many have a safer place to go. Yes you do have to wait until the 3 day forecast. Yes, some places you might be trapped and have no choice but to stay.



Most don't move because if uncertainty ( lack of problem study), work, higher priority care such as primary residence, job, etc...etc. The ucky few in great hurricane holes just pray for no direct hits from Cat 4/5s.



Hey, all understandable...but maybe those people should pay higher premiums as their boats are secondary in their hurricane plans.

 

[Boat]

I checked my gas receipt, it was the 29th. So I would have run away on the 28th. What? Five days to go a couple hundred miles? If you think that would have been a stupid move then so be it, IDGAS. I'd do the same thing next time.

Next time you want glowing praise for someone who trashes a boat, say so. Title the thread: Let's all say something nice for the Boat Sinkers.


Thousands of dead people out there and UR upset about some posts on the TrawlerForum? OK. Different Strokes. Got your own priorities.

 

[jimisbell]

I dont know if I should disclose this secret or not. Might make my exodus harder next time. But I left just 10 hours before Harvey hit with the eye going directly over my boat at Cat 4 strength. There was NO traffic, great 3 hour drive. Great hurricane hole, but not a place to live in September with no AC for two weeks. I'm outta there!!!

 

[OldDan1943]

The Captain/owner made the decision based upon the information he had at hand. It turned out to be a bad decision. I am not about to fault him nor his decision because, I was not there.

 

[ksanders]

The Captain/owner made the decision based upon the information he had at hand. It turned out to be a bad decision. I am not about to fault him nor his decision because, I was not there.

See bold.

You are yourself passing the same level of judgement that others have posted.

We learn from others bad and good decisions, so that we do not make similar ones.

 

[sunchaser]

Tingum
Every professional mariner event, business result, leisure activity, sports event, economic decision, child rearing, car wreck etc that has gone awry can benefit from a "what did we do wrong" analysis. Many buzz words and terms are applied to these after the fact studies whether "lessons learned" or "forensic analysis."

Nothing the matter with applying the same thought process to this specific incident where much is known as presented by the boat owner in his blog. Being the Internet many silly things come out, but bottom line, this event is well worth evaluating and discussing.

Quite possibly, for future reference, some TF folks who cruise to the islands will learn some hurricane avoidance tips to forestall boat loss and or injury. From that standpoint alone, this thread is worthwhile.

 

[OldDan1943]

See bold.

You are yourself passing the same level of judgement that others have posted.

We learn from others bad and good decisions, so that we do not make similar ones.

I do not have the weather maps nor the accompanying data to make that decision.
Granted if macro and micro weather map were displayed, perhaps we could make decision but, always remember, the final decision, good or bad, is the captain's
If I were given the choice between losing lives or the boat, I do hope my insurance company understands.

 

[psneeld]

The funny thing here is I don't think that anyone who advocates runnig is saying drive into greater danger than they might already be.


While some are stripping canvas and tying things down...the runners are buying fuel and food and heading for definitely a better hurricane hole or at least away from the greatest intensity currently predicted.


At any point with decent planning the voyage can be terminated and the occupants can move to better shelter than the boat....if they can't, than it's a bad plan or then should stay put.


NO ONE IS ADVOCATING death over boat loss...the writer though had one and almost the other.



And people are still convinced that debating the details is Monday QBing or mean spirited? Especially after the guy probably got paid to sound like he had a clue?...welll at least had the nads to write an article so soon.

 

[Bigsfish]

Whatever you do someone will tell you how you could have done better.

 

[psneeld]

Irv....


Sure there is some finger pointing...


But from my point of view it ultimately is what he could have done to avoid his situation because of what others of us DID see in the forecasts, lack of hidey holes, where would have been a better spot, etc...etc...

Realistically, I don't know this guy and he is just one of many that suffered lossed on all scales.


His misfortune really isn't a true blip on my radar...there are bigger things to worry about or people in greater need.




I am just reviewing what I might have done and letting other take pot shots at my theories.



If I thought the guy should have sought beter shelter and said so...its clinical in my mind after 2 careers of helping people back from their errors or sometimes plain old bad luck. (which accident investigators really don't believe in).

 

[Bigsfish]

Scott I would never second guess you on this. My comment was directed at no one in particular but I know human nature that whatever a person chooses there will be someone to second guess what he has done. In my case that I ran from a hurricane from the Exumas to Miami, I still question if I made to correct decision.

I do agree with your conclusion, I would have headed south or east.

Thanks.

 

[skipgundlach]

We were among the lucky (blessed) ones.

At the time this 300-mile motor happened, Dorian was not expected to hit where we were, but instead go right over Vero Beach, where the admiral's 93-YO mother lived, in a retirement community, which would have flooded with a 5' storm surge.

I called this picture, at the time, "Running to Dorian" - which, of course, turned out to be just the opposite.

A friend of ours who we'd met at the very bottom (from whence we ran) had stayed until it was too late to leave; they survived to write the blog in which the described how they lost their GB: https://cruisingwiththechilbergs.com/

They were in exactly the same time and space as we, but we boogied out (we're a sailboat, but there was NO wind and we motored the entire way) early enough to be where Dorian merely put a breeze and some sprinkles in the air.

In Vero, we had a full tank of fuel in the van, and 10 more gallons (enough for a 500 mile range, avoiding the out-of-gas fueling stations potential issues if we had to evacuate) in jerry cans, along with our Honda 2000, which, if we didn't have to leave, but lost power, could keep the reefer cold, the coffee brewed, and the microwave available for cooking, for a few weeks, if needed, of essential power. None of them were needed but we were ready for any eventuality.

We're blessed to have had someone who would have needed our help driving us to leave our beloved Abacos; not everyone else had that stimulus...

 

[skipgundlach]

Sorry but that is just not true.

Here is a link to a youtube video of a couple that took their sail boat from Marsh Harbor out of harms way.

It's all in the timing. By now (not yet to the last page) my moderated post with our track may have been posted.

We made it out, running to Vero Beach, after saying goodbye to Joe and Sandra and Baci, who had left the Little Harbour area earlier, after the Pete's Pub closing party we attended. At the time, it appeared we were running directly to where Dorian was headed, while the area we were in would see mild breezes in the end, and the place where Dorian wasn't supposed to be is now nearly entirely rubble and death.

So much for forecasting. See my earlier post for more detail.

And, FWIW, we had a wreck from which we recovered and still sail the same boat (you could search for Flying Pig, and "I learned about sailing from that" - a takeoff on the last page of Flying Magazine - and follow the vituperation we earned, along with the greatly supportive stuff which happened at the same time).

If you weren't there, and making the same decisions with the same information, at the same time, all you can do is look and learn. Second guessing is unprofitable and mean-spirited.

I can tell you, having survived such slings and arrows, in thanks (well, there were an equal number of folk who later thanked me and said I'd influenced how they'd think in the future) for my having been entirely candid about how we got to the place we were, I feel for Joe (I hadn't realized it was he who did the original post), as I've BTDT, been the President of the club, and have both the Tee and hat.

This appears, I'm sure, well after the original and over 100 comments, so it's probably a bit of too little, too late. But for the next story of survival, think on what you say. You won't change anyone's mind by throwing bombs, but you may well injure your target (maybe that was your intent?)...

 

[psneeld]

If you don't think reviewing accidents/incidents (not throwing bombs) isn't helpful....I dare you to say that to the NTSB or any military safety organization.


Sure we aren't doing an entire investigation...but there is reviewing facts and outcomes.... part of a learning process and yes capable of teaching if one is willing to ponder.


I learned a lot from a review of my own preparations for Dorien, both from ponder and discussion with dockmates.


I didn't get upset when they pointed out that I might have missed something or could think differently the next time.


Plus I really don't remember any bombs thrown...maybe a few much I thought it pretty constructive on both sides.

 

[skipgundlach]

It's all in the timing. By now (not yet to the last page) my moderated post with our track may have been posted.

(clip)

LOL this one came direct; the other is still in moderation.

I'll not duplicate that moderated post; it will be here soon enough, but here's our dash to what we thought would be the center of Dorian, based on the forecast of the time - I titled it "Running to Dorian" because, had we not HAD to go there, Vero was - at the time - one of the last places we wanted to put our boat...

 

[ksanders]

LOL this one came direct; the other is still in moderation.

I'll not duplicate that moderated post; it will be here soon enough, but here's our dash to what we thought would be the center of Dorian, based on the forecast of the time - I titled it "Running to Dorian" because, had we not HAD to go there, Vero was - at the time - one of the last places we wanted to put our boat...

Thank you for posting your several explanations of the events, and yes although myself and others analyze your friends actions, take heart that it is not in a disparaging way, and that all of us feel sincere sympathy for the loss of their boat, and what they had to go through.

What we do by after incident analysis is to pre-think out plans should someday we find ourselves in a similar situation. We analyze the folks like you who’s actions were successful, and we analyze the actions of those that were not successful and from that we can perhaps learn and be successful ourselves.

This is much in the exact same way any intelligent person analyses their own actions and learns from them. It is not hateful, or spiteful, it is simply a way to learn.

Perhaps someday what your friend went through will influence someone who will have a more positive outcome.

 

[Bigsfish]

Xx

 

[Bigsfish]

We learn best by analyzing our mistakes assuming we survive and second best by analyzing others. I have learned much by listening to others with more experience. If you have ever been in a life threatening experience and survived you will analyze what you did right and wrong (mostly wrong) over and over again.