tpbrady
Guru
While at anchor in a small nook in Gambier Bay waiting out winds in Stephens passage, I started comparing the weather forecast models prediction for tomorrow. The range of winds at 8 am at a point I need to go around before I can head north, is from 5 (GFS) to 21 (HRRR), with other models clustered between 12 and 15. When I look at the forecast winds at locations where I have current observation sites, all the models understated the winds by 3-5 knots in the south and overestimated the winds in the north by the same.
All the models converged toward the observation in their forecast. Based on this, it appears the NWS forecast is more or less based on the scoring system used in ice skating, throw out the low and high score and average the rest.
Anyone have any insight into how the NWS marine forecasts are developed?
Tom
PS. Thanks for having Starlink, otherwise, I could not see the current observations and with the Cape Fanshaw weather radio down, I would be in the same condition as last year. The only way to get weather was to pull the anchor and go out and look.
All the models converged toward the observation in their forecast. Based on this, it appears the NWS forecast is more or less based on the scoring system used in ice skating, throw out the low and high score and average the rest.
Anyone have any insight into how the NWS marine forecasts are developed?
Tom
PS. Thanks for having Starlink, otherwise, I could not see the current observations and with the Cape Fanshaw weather radio down, I would be in the same condition as last year. The only way to get weather was to pull the anchor and go out and look.