Dorian aims for East Coast of Florida

[sdowney717]

So? What's your point?

You got issues with me?
Dont you, noticed that before!

If you dont like what I wrote, put me on ignore, or just pass over, what's your point for commenting back anyway?

Yeah, I know I am not in your clubhouse, believe me, I have no desire to ever be there.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Another tracking resource...


https://www.cyclocane.com/


Specifically: https://www.cyclocane.com/dorian-storm-tracker/

 

[firstbase]

Floating docks or fixed?

Sorry, fixed docks with concrete bulkhead behind. Fixed dock on port, pilings and another boat to starboard. Stern in the slip. Bow aimed north. I pull out of the slip and put an anchor out and then back in about 3/4 way. That's to keep the stern off the wall and give me some grab for the exposed direction. Other three sides are condos very close by.

 

[firstbase]

Greetings,
Another tracking resource...


https://www.cyclocane.com/


Specifically: https://www.cyclocane.com/dorian-storm-tracker/

Thanks RT. I am looking at every one of them I can hoping to find that miracle tracker showing it turning around!!

 

[Deano]

I made arrangements last week for a yard to haul Becca and redo the bottom paint. This week no one answers the phone or returns calls.
I just became low priority.

 

[BandB]

Thanks RT. I am looking at every one of them I can hoping to find that miracle tracker showing it turning around!!

Well, if you look at the spaghetti models, you will see some still that have it not making landfall in FL. Just no one now believes them.

 

[OldDan1943]

You got issues with me?
Dont you, noticed that before!

If you dont like what I wrote, put me on ignore, or just pass over, what's your point for commenting back anyway?

Yeah, I know I am not in your clubhouse, believe me, I have no desire to ever be there.

He was telling 'war stories' and I found it interesting.

SMILE Sometimes, more often than not, poorly chosen words, come across as being hostile.
If you play your cards right, perhaps I will tell you about the time the sub, I was on, started flooding or maybe one of my many operations. LOL
Just relax..... enjoy the ride.

 

[firstbase]

You beat me to that question but also how far from inlet and on the ICW or further off? On the east or west side of ICW?

Here we are. That is Jupiter Inlet to the northeast of us with ICW going north and curving around south of us. Our marina circled in blue. Second picture is the marina and small red arrow, barley visible, points to our boat.

 

[BandB]

Sorry, fixed docks with concrete bulkhead behind. Fixed dock on port, pilings and another boat to starboard. Stern in the slip. Bow aimed north. I pull out of the slip and put an anchor out and then back in about 3/4 way. That's to keep the stern off the wall and give me some grab for the exposed direction. Other three sides are condos very close by.

How far below the bulkhead and below the port dock is your boat? Also how tall are the pilings?

I'd recommend looking at this map.

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

There you can select CAT 4 and get an estimate of what storm surge to expect based on your location. Find your marina on the map. Most of Jupiter would expect no more than 6' of surge and much is less than 3'. By comparison, get near St. Lucie Inlet and the numbers are much higher. Jupiter is much like Fort Lauderdale in surge expectations. As you move further north toward Fort Pierce, things are much worse.

If expected surge is less than 3' or even 6', then wind may be as much your enemy as surge. I'd also use the largest fenders I could find.

Make sure you have lines to keep the stern from the bulkhead and not just the anchor.

 

[firstbase]

Well, if you look at the spaghetti models, you will see some still that have it not making landfall in FL. Just no one now believes them.

Just like you I want to believe them! Just preparing for the off chance it goes ahead and does what some models show.

 

[firstbase]

How far below the bulkhead and below the port dock is your boat? Also how tall are the pilings?

I'd recommend looking at this map.

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

There you can select CAT 4 and get an estimate of what storm surge to expect based on your location. Find your marina on the map. Most of Jupiter would expect no more than 6' of surge and much is less than 3'. By comparison, get near St. Lucie Inlet and the numbers are much higher. Jupiter is much like Fort Lauderdale in surge expectations. As you move further north toward Fort Pierce, things are much worse.

If expected surge is less than 3' or even 6', then wind may be as much your enemy as surge. I'd also use the largest fenders I could find.

Make sure you have lines to keep the stern from the bulkhead and not just the anchor.

At low, low tide the toerail is about a foot above the dock. The bulkhead behind is another 1.5 feet above the dock. I am told that storm surge has never been a big issue in the marina, matches what you are saying.

Last time through this I put out the anchor as well as double lines from pilings to boat.. plus spring lines to hold us away from the bulkhead. Will probably triple up everything. Have a good set of fenders but bought two more large ones today. Will also be checking the boat next to me as his "what happens, happens" attitude is disconcerting. As worried about what his boat does as I am about ours. Good thing is we have an awesome dockmaster and he will be there all day tomorrow. He doesn't hesitate adjusting and adding lines to those who don't do it themselves.

 

[firstbase]

How far below the bulkhead and below the port dock is your boat? Also how tall are the pilings?

I'd recommend looking at this map.

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

There you can select CAT 4 and get an estimate of what storm surge to expect based on your location. Find your marina on the map. Most of Jupiter would expect no more than 6' of surge and much is less than 3'. By comparison, get near St. Lucie Inlet and the numbers are much higher. Jupiter is much like Fort Lauderdale in surge expectations. As you move further north toward Fort Pierce, things are much worse.

If expected surge is less than 3' or even 6', then wind may be as much your enemy as surge. I'd also use the largest fenders I could find.

Make sure you have lines to keep the stern from the bulkhead and not just the anchor.

Thanks for the map link. Shows less than 3'.

 

[BandB]

Here we are. That is Jupiter Inlet to the northeast of us with ICW going north and curving around south of us. Our marina circled in blue. Second picture is the marina and small red arrow, barley visible, points to our boat.

You should expect no more than 6' surge based on the maps, and less than 3' at your slip. Now these are just estimates. Ask some around what the greatest surge they've ever seen there is. If they say 15', then think of it as a fisherman's tale, getting bigger each year.

If your boat is right in line with a 140 mph wind, then likely all sorts of destruction all around it including the marina and condos and the boat. Similarly any tornado type activity. However, that intensity hits a very narrow area and everywhere else is less. You're in a relatively protected area and against most winds and surge you are likely to be ok.

Also, using the surge map check out CAT 3 and CAT 5 so you can see the difference. Even CAT 5 doesn't give you tremendous surge like other areas. Our home is up to 3' for CAT 3 and 4 and up to 6' for CAT 5.

Good luck.

 

[cardude01]

Looks like you are in a pretty good spot Firstbase! That has to make you feel a bit better, all things considered.

I’m assuming you have stripped all canvas and whatnot off your boat. Good luck!

 

[firstbase]

You should expect no more than 6' surge based on the maps, and less than 3' at your slip. Now these are just estimates. Ask some around what the greatest surge they've ever seen there is. If they say 15', then think of it as a fisherman's tale, getting bigger each year.

If your boat is right in line with a 140 mph wind, then likely all sorts of destruction all around it including the marina and condos and the boat. Similarly any tornado type activity. However, that intensity hits a very narrow area and everywhere else is less. You're in a relatively protected area and against most winds and surge you are likely to be ok.

Also, using the surge map check out CAT 3 and CAT 5 so you can see the difference. Even CAT 5 doesn't give you tremendous surge like other areas. Our home is up to 3' for CAT 3 and 4 and up to 6' for CAT 5.

Good luck.

The owner around me, and the owner of the slip, tell me surge has never been much so that is good. All I can do it tie up as best I know how and go from there. Thanks for the comments.

 

[Steve91T]

Our boat is in Daytona now, got there a couple of weeks ago. Docks are very low floating docks. We live in Charlotte so the marina is going to throw more lines and fenders out for me. They said they are a well protected marina but our boat is in the first dock from the ICW, so it’s exposed from winds from the east. I’m pretty confident we’re going to take some damage. This sucks.

 

[firstbase]

Looks like you are in a pretty good spot Firstbase! That has to make you feel a bit better, all things considered.

I’m assuming you have stripped all canvas and whatnot off your boat. Good luck!

Thanks. A good spot to me right now is just a few miles outside Cleveland. Yes, pulling canvas, antennas, filling the dinghy with some water for weight and doubling down on straps tomorrow.

Actually of all the things to redo after a hurricane the relacing of the canvas flybridge surround is the worst!!

 

[cardude01]

This is an interesting video explaining all the things steering this storm. Not a very good conclusion for the northern Bahamas and east coast of Florida however as it could really slow down and strengthen.

https://youtu.be/ozRRjF7MC7c

 

[diver dave]

No one alive has seen a major hurricane hit Jupiter. I was walking the beach in the eye of David, the last, near impact, 1979, IIRC.
I would leave and head south. But, I would wait until Sat 11am to know for sure.

GB42 has a lot of windage, and you don't have a lot of working room. Anchor is a wasted of time. 140mph, and taking its time at 5mph, coming in Jup inlet will unleash a ton of docks from the south side, east of you. The Lox. river will be a log jam. I'm not optimistic. Sorry.

 

[drb1025]

It looks like the tides for the next few days are higher and lower than normal, so the timing of the landfall will affect the surge as well.

 

[firstbase]

No one alive has seen a major hurricane hit Jupiter. I was walking the beach in the eye of David, the last, near impact, 1979, IIRC.
I would leave and head south. But, I would wait until Sat 11am to know for sure.

GB42 has a lot of windage, and you don't have a lot of working room. Anchor is a wasted of time. 140mph coming in Jup inlet will unleash a ton of docks from the south side, east of you. The Lox. river will be a log jam. I'm not optimistic. Sorry.

Not sure you are looking at the right pics of where I am? There is no way docks from the southside/east can get to me as we are tucked back in a protected harbor? I guess material from out on the ICW could come in the entrance and snake back to us with the tide but...??? As for the anchor, it isn't enough in and of itself but wouldn't it help take some strain off of the docklines?

 

[sdowney717]

The wisdom of years for me has showed me, there is nothing you can do to make the storm go away, if it is coming for you, then it will. The zone of extreme damage is small and narrow, so the chance of it passing over you is small, and even if you move your boat, you might move it closer to where it finally comes ashore.
The worst damage you can mitigate is the surge. Our worst surge effect, for me, was Hurricane Isabel. And I stayed in the slip, and it was well shielded by trees, and nothing happened, I was in a marina next to the USCG station in Yorktowne VA. I loosened the lines and added very long spring lines. A few boats did sink. Before the storm surge was over, I drove back out and a screw hook someone had screwed into a piling had hooked the forward rail, I used a crowbar to pry boat off of it.

I bought an extra 8D battery as I was certain the power would go out for days, and it did, for 10 days.

If a cat 4 was certain and bearing down on me, I might do something different. You only have a short time to decide what to do.

 

[BandB]

Our boat is in Daytona now, got there a couple of weeks ago. Docks are very low floating docks. We live in Charlotte so the marina is going to throw more lines and fenders out for me. They said they are a well protected marina but our boat is in the first dock from the ICW, so it’s exposed from winds from the east. I’m pretty confident we’re going to take some damage. This sucks.

How tall are the pilings? That's a key to floating.

Had the hurricane remained on the early forecasts you were right in the target area. Now the odds are it will make landfall well south of you. At CAT 4, you'd have surge over 9'. However, you're not likely to have anything close to the impact of a CAT 4. Most models now have the hurricane passing Daytona from the land side. Too early to know anything for sure, but looks like you're likely to be impacted, but far less than initially forecast.

 

[diver dave]

Not sure you are looking at the right pics of where I am? There is no way docks from the southside/east can get to me as we are tucked back in a protected harbor? I guess material from out on the ICW could come in the entrance and snake back to us with the tide but...??? As for the anchor, it isn't enough in and of itself but wouldn't it help take some strain off of the docklines?

The dock disasters to come east is just an indicator of the magnitude of a Jupiter inlet impact; not a direct impact to you. Its a straight inlet east, essentially a unlimited fetch. Yes, you are around the corner from that (very much better). But, you will get high winds, maybe a long duration event.

So, you didn't answer my question earlier. "do you have the option of moving?". If that answer is NO, then we can move my thought process to dock management. THere were some great pix posted weeks ago on pilings. And, particularly, how to NOT tie to the upper half of the piling. Instead, use a loose chain wrap, and a shackle to the boat lines. You do not want to cause a lot of piling leverage that will either break it, or pull it out. Keep the pull low. But, I realize you have limited room in the dock you are in.

 

[firstbase]

The dock disasters to come east is just an indicator of the magnitude of a Jupiter inlet impact; not a direct impact to you. Its a straight inlet east, essentially a unlimited fetch. Yes, you are around the corner from that (very much better). But, you will get high winds, maybe a long duration event.

So, you didn't answer my question earlier. "do you have the option of moving?". If that answer is NO, then we can move my thought process to dock management. THere were some great pix posted weeks ago on pilings. And, particularly, how to NOT tie to the upper half of the piling. Instead, use a loose chain wrap, and a shackle to the boat lines. You do not want to cause a lot of piling leverage that will either break it, or pull it out. Keep the pull low. But, I realize you have limited room in the dock you are in.

Gotcha. I have not considered moving it as I have family, house, etc. to take care of as well. Our pilings are about 8' out of the water at normal high tide. Haven't measured though so guessing. Bow height is about 6'. If you could link/direct me to the pics you mention I would appreciate it.

 

[menzies]

Our boat is in Daytona now, got there a couple of weeks ago. Docks are very low floating docks. We live in Charlotte so the marina is going to throw more lines and fenders out for me. They said they are a well protected marina but our boat is in the first dock from the ICW, so it’s exposed from winds from the east. I’m pretty confident we’re going to take some damage. This sucks.

Halifax Marina?

 

[Steve91T]

Halifax Marina?

Yep

 

[dhays]

Thanks for the info on storm surge.

 

[geoleo]

The speed of the storm over water also plays a significant role. Two extremes, Andrew was very fast moving and compact and even with all it's destruction had very little surge for it's size. Meanwhile Sandy was slow and very spread out and tremendous damage from rain and from surge.

Andrew in Miami had a 10ft surge--it put a 60 ton 75ft steel French canal boat 1 1/2 blocks inland from where it was tied up in Coconut Grove.

 

[ksanders]

So...

How many TF members in the Ft Lauderdale area have started the trek north in their boats?

Seems to me there is time to boogie outta there if a person set sail this morning.

Heart’s out to you guys!

Some folks have jobs and situations that do not allow them to just leave work to take a boat out of harms way.