Dorian aims for East Coast of Florida

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ksanders said:
So...

How many TF members in the Ft Lauderdale area have started the trek north in their boats?

Seems to me there is time to boogie outta there if a person set sail this morning.

Heart’s out to you guys!

Some folks have jobs and situations that do not allow them to just leave work to take a boat out of harms way.
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To go where? After it hits land it is going due north by NE and still a hurricane (Cat 2 by Orlando, Cat 1 by Jax). So where do you hide?

I would have thought going south would be better.
 
My brother's GB42 was moored at the Galveston Yacht Club in 2008 when Ike went directly over it with expected 13-foot surge. The slip he was in was covered (very high cover) supported by square concrete pilings off of a central concrete pier. His boat survived with a single scratched hand rail while astern of him and on either side boats had their sterns thrown up on the pier and then sank by the bow as the surge receded. Most other boats there were sunk or severely damaged. It was still a huge mess a couple of weeks later when I went over to tend to his boat because he was called out of country by work. When I heard what was about to happen, I urged him to go to the boat and secure it beyond the normal moorings, and he got there 24 hours before landfall and had to wade in waist deep water on the pier to get aboard. Dock lines there were a strange arrangement with them leading to hefty cleats on the finger piers between each slip. He had to cut a couple of them due to the tremendous strain. I had suggested he run single (not doubled) 1/2-inch twisted nylon lines back to the pier cleats where his 3/4 or 5/8 lines had been and to get up as high as possible on the pilings to secure the heavier lines. He didn't have them, or I would have suggested chain bracelets to go around the concrete pilings with his mooring line secured to them; so just going high was what he did. As the boat rose on the full surge, the light lines which had kept the boat centered away from the hard surfaces surrounding it on three sides broke, and the heavies did the hard work during the highest surge and winds. The pier structure as well as the overhead cover survived. Later during to long wait to get back to the marina, he became concerned about the boat "hanging" on the mooring lines, but there was no trouble with that, and they had slid back down a bit and somehow had not chafed through.

So maybe some selected use of light lines to help position the boat with the intent that they break at extreme surge can help some of you in south Florida.
 
ksanders said:
So...

How many TF members in the Ft Lauderdale area have started the trek north in their boats?

Seems to me there is time to boogie outta there if a person set sail this morning.

Heart’s out to you guys!

Some folks have jobs and situations that do not allow them to just leave work to take a boat out of harms way.
Click to expand...

Go north? Only if you could clear the Carolinas by about Wednesday and then keep going. If you broke down, you'd be finished. In the northern hemisphere, we blue water sailors always break south if it is at all feasible. I was aboard a destroyer that got trapped by a typhoon in the Tonkin Gulf in 1973, and we had to hide about a hundred yards behind an aircraft carrier as it slugged its way out through the dangerous semi-circle of that thing, and we still got the hell beat out of us. When I later had command of my own ship, I once steamed south down the western side of the Philippines almost to the equator to avoid a couple of typhoons. NEVER go north to avoid a cyclone.
 
Steve91T said:
Our boat is in Daytona now, got there a couple of weeks ago. Docks are very low floating docks. We live in Charlotte so the marina is going to throw more lines and fenders out for me. They said they are a well protected marina but our boat is in the first dock from the ICW, so it’s exposed from winds from the east. I’m pretty confident we’re going to take some damage. This sucks.
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We're at Halifax Harbor too though on E dock so not on one of the docks near the entrance channel.

Staff seems to have things pretty much under control and the marina is extremely well built with floating concrete docks and pilings higher than anything currently predicted. Much better than the NY marina I was docked at for Sandy.
When I was in Daytona last month I prepared for this scenario with good lines and moving a bunch of deck stuff to my parent's garage. I'm in NY and they did a check yesterday and gave me an OK.

If Dorian wants to come up to Daytona, she'll come up to Daytona. My onboard Wyze camera is running and I'll go down with the ship if it comes to that.

Hopefully weakens soon for the sake of everybody.
 
menzies said:
To go where? After it hits land it is going due north by NE and still a hurricane (Cat 2 by Orlando, Cat 1 by Jax). So where do you hide?

I would have thought going south would be better.
Click to expand...

OK how many are going south???
 
ksanders said:
OK how many are going south???
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I considered it and probably would except I have family/house to deal with and my being on the boat during it all would go over like...nothing. In 2-3 days I could put a bit of distance between where I am and the storm. I haven't seen any model that shows it turning and going real south.
 
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You should not head north, good chance storm will head up the coast of Florida, maybe up to Carolinas. It seems better to head south, depending if you are close to the strike zone. Of course will move up the coast it will be a cat 1 supposedly.

https://abc11.com/weather/hurricane-dorian-tracks-toward-florida-strengthens-to-cat-3-storm/5502448/

Biggest issue is storm surge, water is going to be pulled out below the storm and pushed up ahead where storm is going. So heading north your not really helping things.
 
If you remain on your boat, do not be afraid to start your engine to hold yourself steady.

If you use your generator, I hope you have enough food for your new found "shoreside" friends when they come for breakfast, lunch and dinner. LOL
 
Yup, storm surge. And this is a king tide too.
For Irma, we had about a 3 ft storm surge, some spilling over the top of the sea wall.

I do have one piece of canvas I shall not remove..... it is over the aft deck and about 5 years old. Some of the thread has pulled away..... Time to replace it.... I was hoping it would last through hurricane season.
 
diver dave said:
that plan did not work for the Fantome.
Click to expand...

The Fantome's captain made a classic high school running back mistake, vacillating in direction of movement while the opposition closes in. Instead of running straight south without letup, he ran north and then south thus delaying his southerly advance.
 
ksanders said:
So...

How many TF members in the Ft Lauderdale area have started the trek north in their boats?

Seems to me there is time to boogie outta there if a person set sail this morning.

Heart’s out to you guys!

Some folks have jobs and situations that do not allow them to just leave work to take a boat out of harms way.
Click to expand...

Wifey B: What? Not many TF'ers or otherwise. Fort Lauderdale likely south of landfall. I know a couple going to Miami or Key West. North is where the problem is. Looks like it's going to hit north of West Palm somewhere. The girls made it home from SC, but our family from Jupiter likely to come down on Sunday or before. Boats carefully docked in safe areas of the ICW and local rivers. We may or may not get hurricane winds, but if so, only at mild levels, and little surge. Things can change but right now looks like it will be 70-150 miles north of us. :)
 
sdowney717 said:
You should not head north, good chance storm will head up the coast of Florida, maybe up to Carolinas. It seems better to head south, depending if you are close to the strike zone. Of course will move up the coast it will be a cat 1 supposedly.

https://abc11.com/weather/hurricane-dorian-tracks-toward-florida-strengthens-to-cat-3-storm/5502448/

Biggest issue is storm surge, water is going to be pulled out below the storm and pushed up ahead where storm is going. So heading north your not really helping things.
Click to expand...

Yes, the latest official forecast has it making landfall around Tequesta but.....

The European models now primarily have it slowing and then being pushed up the shore so not actually making landfall but just getting close and then heading north along the shore. The ECMWF model has it never moving onto land but slowly just tracking up the East coast all the way to Canada.

If anything, more confusion now as to what happens as it gets near land.
 
BandB said:
Yes, the latest official forecast has it making landfall around Tequesta but.....

If anything, more confusion now as to what happens as it gets near land.
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That is Tequesta FL. A bit south of Hobe Sound FL and a bit north of Jupiter FL
 
BandB said:
Yes, the latest official forecast has it making landfall around Tequesta but.....

If anything, more confusion now as to what happens as it gets near land.
Click to expand...

Thus, it is futile to try to run away unless in a swift vessel headed SOUTH.
 
ksanders said:
OK how many are going south???
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Wifey B:

run hide.jpg

We're just preparing to stay home, boats in their protected slips, us in our home, may or may not be hit by the hurricane. Likely not in the worst area. Perhaps much like Irma was for us.

We do worry about those north of us who haven't taken a direct hit from a storm this strong before. Wherever it hits directly there will be damage on land and on water. Hoping everyone just takes the steps to protect their lives and those of their loved ones.

I think one thing that gets missed is that some of us have homes and marinas that are well prepared for most hurricanes. That's especially true in Fort Lauderdale. :)

If someone was wanting to evacuate, although no orders have been issued, I'm not sure how they would determine where to go. I'd likely suggest south to Miami or even Key West. After Irma, we tried to reach all employees. One single mom had run north in a total panic with her three year old daughter. The storm continued north. We located her in a shelter in Savannah. She felt alone and horrified, had spent all the money she had, was out of gas and didn't know if she could return home safely. We drove up to pick them up and brought her home to a hospital for recovery while we kept her daughter.

I do worry about anyone going through a hurricane alone. Please get with family or friends or someone you know whether at home or in a shelter. We need the support of others. We have young girls in our extended family who will be at our home, not because it's safer than their condo, but because they can be with "family." I also fear for those elderly at home and, even more, in nursing homes, hoping improvements have been made. The greatest loss of life we've seen in South Florida was in a nursing home located right across from a hospital, but where nothing was done to protect the residents. They lost power and were in horrible conditions. :mad:

I'm sure some areas will have evacuation orders once the path is better known. However, land evacuation is only for surge and water, not for wind. Northern Florida is more susceptible to surge than we are in our area.
 
What the HE DOUBLE HOCKEY STICKS is it doing trying to come ashore at Jacksonville - we don't do hurricanes (very first and very last one last one was in 64 - Dora!)!

Go away you snot nosed little B!
 
My latest tracker shows north, Ft. Pierce. big change in several hours. I guess it could change back south again, who knows. Honestly, after all of our discussions here I feel very "eh" about this. Maybe Jupiter escapes somewhat but people somewhere are going through all of this crap and that just sucks. Certainly doesn't feel "good".
 
In my case, I think this is a drill for the next storm coming across.
I still need to double up one stern line..... drop the RIB in the water and if necessary, move it under the bow, half filled with water.
 
Isn't this a great service from the National Hurricane Center! They produce maps showing where your house is (H) in relation to the major hurricane (M). That's pretty neat!
 
So I went down to the boat today to add one extra dock line and take in a forward cushion (boat faces nw along the dock) so winds should come towards the bow. I’m far enough up the Miami River that there will be no surge but the king tide had the boat about 1.5’ higher. If the track turns further south I’ll add more lines and take in some more stuff that could fly away.

I enjoyed the parade of boats heading up the river, saw perhaps 100 boats go past in four hours, mostly under their own power but perhaps a dozen being towed.

Good luck to all in the path.
 
BTW today was my own private boat show, what a great country.
 
BandB said:
Wifey B: One of your neighbors up your river was offering dockage at a condo building for $90 per foot yesterday. :nonono:
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Price gouging? Call the governor.
I wonder if he was a jerk before this offer?
 
menzies said:
Isn't this a great service from the National Hurricane Center! They produce maps showing where your house is (H) in relation to the major hurricane (M). That's pretty neat!
Click to expand...

Yes, they currently show 140 mph winds as it passes just north of Marsh Harbour where there is now a hurricane warning. Then 140 mph as it reaches Fort Pierce and still 100 mph as it reaches Menzies or Jacksonville as most would see it. May also continue up the coast with problems in GA, SC and beyond.
 
rgano said:
Thus, it is futile to try to run away unless in a swift vessel headed SOUTH.
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Run? God invented the airplane for a reason, of course if you wait until the last minute, well, that's the last minute... even driving, if you left by car today, you'd be in Dallas or Chicago by the time landfall was made. The latter being particularly nice this time of year. I spent Florence in Los Angeles last year, for instance.

Those who choose to ride these things out in place remind me of the famous Mike Tyson quote: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Here's hoping Dorian whiffs if that's any of yours' plan.
 
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