Hurricane Ian Ripple Effects: Questions for the Professionals on the Forum

[psneeld]

For Fiona there was hurricane watches for USVI, PR, Florida, Georgia, SC. Warnings about the same. TS watches a small bit bigger and warnings a slight bit smaller. Any would serve the language in most policies. She was a geographically a big storm as well as strong. Even up here our seas were effected as she passed by on her way to Canada. To my mind that’s big. Multiple states and countries. Grandson got a kick watching the waves break over the local sea walls.
In comparison Sandy was small.

Not sure what the finals are and nothing from Canada yet, but the damages in the Caribbean for Fiona were estimated at 4B.... a bit down the lists.

Sandy was called "Superstorm Sandy"

https://www.britannica.com/event/Superstorm-Sandy

Superstorm Sandy

Superstorm Sandy, also called Hurricane Sandy or Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy, massive storm that brought significant wind and flooding damage to Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, The Bahamas, and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states in late October 2012. Flash flooding generated by the storm’s relentless rainfall, high winds, and coastal storm surges killed 147 people and produced widespread property damage in the areas in its path.

 

[backinblue]

I've heard it reported that Ian was one of the most powerful storms ever to hit FL. Yet it didn't seem to get a lot of news coverage. Was the damage not that bad or are we just getting passe about hurricanes these days and just accept them as a normal way of life?

 

[O C Diver]

I've heard it reported that Ian was one of the most powerful storms ever to hit FL. Yet it didn't seem to get a lot of news coverage. Was the damage not that bad or are we just getting passe about hurricanes these days and just accept them as a normal way of life?

Likely some of that has to do with urban size and population. Don't know the percentage, but Fort Myers population surges during the winter. Casualties and property damage were likely have been exponentially higher if Ian had come ashore at Tampa or slightly North.

Ted

 

[sunchaser]

The Central and North American coasts have been shaped by tens if not hundreds of millions of hurricanes. The Gulf Current and warm equatorial waters off Africa have proven to be great storm incubators since well before the dinosaurs were wiped out.

Mother Nature is relentless as is geologic time. Build sea side structures or store boats on the coast or outer islands and the eventual outcome is preordained.

Live inland and own a trailer boat works for millions. Otherwise roll the dice.

 

[mvweebles]

Likely some of that has to do with urban size and population. Don't know the percentage, but Fort Myers population surges during the winter. Casualties and property damage were likely have been exponentially higher if Ian had come ashore at Tampa or slightly North.



Ted

Had Ian continued on the course forecast on the Sunday prior to veering, it would have put Tampa Bay on its dirty side. For years, forecasters have warned of worst case scenario where surge is magnified in Tampa Bay and inundates the city at the northern end of the bay. Tampa has never seen a hurricane, at least not in modern times, so is ill prepared.

A Cat 4 on that path into Tampa would have been devastating. Would rival Katrina, if not surpass, possibly by a longshot.

Peter

 

[CaptTom]

I've heard it reported that Ian was one of the most powerful storms ever to hit FL. Yet it didn't seem to get a lot of news coverage.

Lots of news coverage here. That's all everyone was talking about. Could be because we're on the coast ourselves, as well as the fact that we all know (or are) snow birds with connections to Florida.

The one guy from our marina who had been in Ft. Myers Beach made it through OK, only minor damage. Can't wait to hear the whole story. I know he'd found a hurricane hole in some canal upriver, but don't know any more than that. The place he usually kept his boat at was destroyed.

 

[garbler]

Had Ian continued on the course forecast on the Sunday prior to veering, it would have put Tampa Bay on its dirty side. For years, forecasters have warned of worst case scenario where surge is magnified in Tampa Bay and inundates the city at the northern end of the bay. Tampa has never seen a hurricane, at least not in modern times, so is ill prepared.

A Cat 4 on that path into Tampa would have been devastating. Would rival Katrina, if not surpass, possibly by a longshot.

Peter

Can you imagine the surge potential in Tampa Bay and those big rivers at the other end. But worse are the evacuation routes that utilize several bridges. Think about bumper to bumper evacuees pulling trailers over these bridges and there is a stalled vehicle or breakdown choking the whole artery down. Or the roads out of the area ( not many ) trying to handle such volume. Florida knows all too well this area is a big problem evacuating if people all wait to the last couple of days. Those rivers to the North will likely be the worst.

I recall Huuricane Fran hitting Eastern, NC and it pushed water all the way up the Pamilico River to the Tar River and about 100 miles inland into the little town of Princeville. They were submerged in 36’ of surge water people standing on rooftops, caskets floating around it was awful. I had a house on water in Eastern NC and went through six or seven hurricanes so I guess you could say I have some experience. We boarded up the house so often I kept all the pieces numbered and stored. Then we had a 40’ log wash in and harpoon the lower floor through the bricks and into the kitchen at the far end. I helped a friend run his 26 or 28’ sportfish up Jordan Creek to a safe hole and tied off to three Cypress. Found the boat sunk two days later after the hull was holed by a runaway propane tank, the big horizontal ones. You can’t win for losing its all a crap shoot.

 

[Hippocampus]

Thanks for posting financial burden of these storms. From that point of view I stand corrected.

 

[DDW]

Reminds me of a "funny" analogy about people living in "tornado alley". The story goes that what if there was a cave and in the cave lived a big monster. Every once in a while he comes out and stomps around and destroys everthing nearby. Would you build a house near that cave? And yet people continue to build and re-build in areas prone to tornadoes and hurricanes.

And yet, if insurance functioned properly, it mitigates or corrects just this sort of thing: Insurance rates in the affected area rise to cover the periodic losses. Anyone considering building or rebuilding there has a choice to make: buy insurance at a rate that pays for the losses, go uninsured and take the risk yourself, or if neither of those is economically untenable, leave the area for someplace else. It is simply the cost of living associated with the area.

Similar decisions for Florida boaters, if insurance was fairly allocated. Still, you'd like the option for those willing to put up a monster proof fence to get an insurance break. As has been pointed out, insurance companies are multinational conglomerates, most of the time with very little visibility or concern about individuals or (fine grained) local conditions. Generally speaking, this has the effect of subsidizing people living in the heart of monster country, and punishing those living at the margins, or who have paid for the monster proof fence.

Federal efforts in these arenas almost always has a flattening effect, taxing those with little risk to pay to those with high risk. But that is true of federal tax "balance of payments" to states in general - with Florida being one of the largest debtor states - so insurance subsidies are not an outlier.

 

[Simi 60]

. But as I posted before....boats are far enough down the worry about ladder they get left behind. I was a liveaboard with nothing else to take care of so my planning could be a bit different. But the options are still there for those who want them.
.

I have houses in a cyclone zone but what can you do about a house?
You can't move it, or anchor it better
You can't add more mooring lines or pull it out of the water.

About the best you can do is tape up the windows and clear any loose crap out of the yard
Couple of hours and done.

Other maintenance issues should be done well before cyclone/hurricane season.

 

[psneeld]

I have houses in a cyclone zone but what can you do about a house?
You can't move it, or anchor it better
You can't add more mooring lines or pull it out of the water.

About the best you can do is tape up the windows and clear any loose crap out of the yard
Couple of hours and done.

Other maintenance issues should be done well before cyclone/hurricane season.

I don't disagree but feel like adding.....

Some houses require more/less than others.... some people have multiple buildings to worry about as well as other assets like RVs, shoreside boats, etc.

That's why I had ONLY A boat....kept it simple.

But many don't have a more simple life and even if they do, they help other that need it. Those with long ladders usually don't get to their boat to the degree they could without all the rest.

 

[Hippocampus]

I have houses in a cyclone zone but what can you do about a house?
You can't move it, or anchor it better
You can't add more mooring lines or pull it out of the water.

About the best you can do is tape up the windows and clear any loose crap out of the yard
Couple of hours and done.

Other maintenance issues should be done well before cyclone/hurricane season.

My current house is neither in a flood zone nor hurricane zone. But for ~10% extra the windows are hurricane rated as is the roof. Anchoring between the floors was placed and cross SS wire run through the studs. So the entire house is hurricane rated. Between that and the HERS rating I do get a significant break on insurance and rebate on taxes. Although it lowers my annual nut depending upon future house selling prices I may or may not recover that additional 15%. Suspect I or my kids will. Doing this only is practical with new construction. Housing stock if not destroyed lasts decades.
The tech to storm proof a house has been around for quite awhile. Flooding risk is location, location location as the real estate agents like to say. Most damage is flooding not wind from what I’m told. Can’t get my mind around that many if not most housing in flood zones doesn’t have adequate or often any flood insurance. In some areas of my state rebuilds are more resilient as it’s required. But nation wide often not. The backlash if the feds changed their programs to truly reflect risk would be likely high so don’t expect meaningful change. The allure of living in the places that are flood zones is high. Perhaps a three strikes you’re out rule is where we’re ultimately heading. More likely we’re looking at more of the same. Non 1%ers taking it on the chin. Billions spent on restoration and clearing damage.

 

[garbler]

And yet, if insurance functioned properly, it mitigates or corrects just this sort of thing: Insurance rates in the affected area rise to cover the periodic losses. Anyone considering building or rebuilding there has a choice to make: buy insurance at a rate that pays for the losses, go uninsured and take the risk yourself, or if neither of those is economically untenable, leave the area for someplace else. It is simply the cost of living associated with the area.

Similar decisions for Florida boaters, if insurance was fairly allocated. Still, you'd like the option for those willing to put up a monster proof fence to get an insurance break. As has been pointed out, insurance companies are multinational conglomerates, most of the time with very little visibility or concern about individuals or (fine grained) local conditions. Generally speaking, this has the effect of subsidizing people living in the heart of monster country, and punishing those living at the margins, or who have paid for the monster proof fence.

Federal efforts in these arenas almost always has a flattening effect, taxing those with little risk to pay to those with high risk. But that is true of federal tax "balance of payments" to states in general - with Florida being one of the largest debtor states - so insurance subsidies are not an outlier.

Very good analysis on almost every point. My house in NC sustained like six or seven Cat Losses. As a long time assured with the Federal Flood Insurance program they just got fed up with paying my claims and all those in the Eastern NC low country. After three or four of these my Wife made it clear that full time occupancy was out of the question. When we bought the place only Hazel in 1954 hit the region as a serious high wind full fledged Hurricane. I did my homework on this before buying then bam we got slammed year after year. Now I couldn’t sell the house even at half value, I was stuck then Then three years ago the Feds told us we qualified to have the house raised five feet to twelve feet above extreme high tide elevation. They raised everybody’s houses around Belhaven, NC. They paid for the whole thing, so is that fair to those who pay taxes and live beyond such catastrophes. No of course not but nobody in their right mind would decline. The house sold two years later.

After the first loss I started to write and document everything just like a surveyor’s damage repair report. It made the inspector’s job easy and they soon took copies and used the specs in their settlement reports . After the first loss I figured out their loss calculator software and it became obvious they were estimating stuff like drywall, flooring, carpet etc. on pricing norms for the Mid-Atlantic region. There were no local pricing adjustments for contractors 50 to 100 miles away who couldn’t get price breaks like metropolitan areas. It was a bit of work but for those who can measure, take lots of photos and can call around for pricing it’s worth the effort. I encourage those with big boat or house damages to follow this advice especially with your boats where it’s smart to hire your own surveyor.

Eastern North Carolina has a record of being hit by more tropical storms and Hurricanes than any other place on this continent. Most were not heavy wind events but all generated very high surge flooding. You can board up for heavy winds and except for the worst you will make out with some roof and downed trees. But flooding from surge cannot be prevented unless you house is on stilts or safely high. Eastern NC is a very unusual location and because of its geographic peculiarities is prone to damage no other location in this country has to contend with.

BlackandBlue mentioned light coverage of Ian and that may be true but let me tell you about my own personal experience on this subject. With reference to my above information regarding the storm history of Eastern NC everybody down there that it very odd that network coverage never lasted much more than a brief story line. That the damages incurred were by and large ignored. Most TV watchers almost never heard of these catastrophes or the loss people suffered. Why ? Well for one it’s Eastern NC where population is light but primarily because the big network news crews couldn’t handle it. There were few hotels, fewer bars and restaurants for them to hangout in. Sounds ridiculous but I was in Charleston for Hugo in 89 handling USN and insurance losses . The closet hotel open was in Santee about 65 miles and it was full of network crews double bunking. I was there about a week but these crews split in two days. I spent some time in the bar and house eatery with them and all I heard was it was wet, muddy and hot and they wanted out . They left and as a result little was reported as access into old Charleston was blocked by fallen live oaks and they refused to wait any longer. Imagine all of our West Coast friends being denied such fun

Rick

 

[psneeld]

https://www.finder.com/states-with-the-most-hurricanes

https://www.artemis.bm/news/norther...ly-hit-by-tropical-storms-hurricanes-chaucer/

 

[garbler]

https://www.finder.com/states-with-the-most-hurricanes

https://www.artemis.bm/news/norther...ly-hit-by-tropical-storms-hurricanes-chaucer/

I should have specified recent or since 1980 storms. I got my info from FEMA correspondence whereby they claimed our region had the most tropical named storm losses in the country and it qualified us for house raising. My numbers don’t go back 100 years I’m not that old.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Carolina_hurricanes_(1980–1999)

Rick

 

[psneeld]

That's why I posted both, showing more tropical activity is moving north.

But take out tropical and the northeast sees multiple Nor'easter storms almost every year that probably rate tropical storm force winds.... I know when I lived on Kodiak for a couple years, we saw way more than tropical storm force winds many times during the winter.

 

[garbler]

Actually if you look at the East NC coast it sticks out there like a Eastern coast nose next to the Gulf Stream saying hit me and so it does. But regardless of category storm strength Eastern NC is a very special and unusual geographic location that results in damages unlike any other area.

As you note Alaskan/Bering Sea and the bad Nor'easters of New England hit much harder per unit of Beaufort scale than warmer tropical winds. Cold air is heavier and denser and unless you’ve been at sea or coastal in it’s path you have no idea how hard it hits.

Rick

 

[Simi 60]

My current house is neither in a flood zone nor hurricane zone. But for ~10% extra the windows are hurricane rated as is the roof. Anchoring between the floors was placed and cross SS wire run through the studs. So the entire house is hurricane rated. Between that and the HERS rating I do get a significant break on insurance and rebate on taxes. Although it lowers my annual nut depending upon future house selling prices I may or may not recover that additional 15%. Suspect I or my kids will. Doing this only is practical with new construction. .

Bolded bit depends on the house
I have 1950's build old QLDers that I had moved to other sites and part of the deal to rehabilitate them was extra roof trusses, tie rods from roof to floor joist and extra diagonals on stumps and walls.

Roof had to come off and house cut in half for the shift anyway so it was little extra to do.

Houses in flood as well, but no extra flood coverage needed.
Stumps tall enough so as not to get living level wet and lower level closed in like a fence with pallings with a 1 inch gap to allow water and wind to flow through.
Nice cool breezes blow through on hot tropical days, no A/C required
All electrical up high above highest flood levels.
When floods are coming move stuff upstairs
When floods are gone hose out downstairs and move stuff back down.
Carry on.
.

The not so bright build in downstairs, have it all turn to mush and rebuild again and again whilst crying about skyrocketing premiums.

 

[Hippocampus]

Excellent links and educational. In my hyperlocal area just about yearly the winter storms take a fair number of houses. Usually from flooding but not infrequently the cliff or bank they sit on erodes and they just fall into the ocean. Historically the at risk areas were summer homes but nearly all are year round residences now. Historically much like the Caribbean it was assumed they be periodically taken out or severely damaged but reconstruction was relatively inexpensive compared to what’s there now. Town services were limited both as regards roads, electric grid, ambulance or fire access. That has changed. From my travels I think the same transformation has occurred along the east coast barrier islands and exposed coastal plains. So these areas are more at risk and have way more valuable properties on them. This behavior is being subsidized by us all. Be it through federal programs or insurance. Building a resistant upside down house on stilts ain’t cheap. Maintaining the grid, water service and access is a constant drain on town budgets.
In a few places after destruction towns have said no building or occupancy permits will be granted. Some areas have taken by the town or state to be perpetually undeveloped after the wreckage is cleared. But that action is rare. In my town that has been mostly areas that historically were fishing shacks or small summer homes not hooked up to the grid. In my area those who can afford the big bucks to build houses on the ocean are being subsidized by those who can’t. So the zoning board and town agencies are more responsive to their needs and desire. Classic go where the money is.
If you have low lying areas, areas built by dredging and fill like in Florida, areas where you dig canals so more people will have direct water access you’re setting yourself up for increased losses. Up here the equation is a bit different but I’m still seeing big houses built on actively eroding cliffs and peninsulas of sand. The feds and the president say they will make the victims of the current storm whole again. Agree their losses are tragic and this should be done. But disagree with the program of reconstruction just setting us up for another cycle of loss of lives, and huge expense.

 

[Hydraulicjump]

A legitimate question for all of us on this forum is whether or not risk is increasing. It is and here is why.

There are lots of ways to define risk, but the simplest way to think about it is annualized economic risk (meaning risk of loss in any given year) = the likelihood of something bad happening to your boat (expressed as the probability in any given year) x the economic cost of that bad thing happening. This simple equation explains why risk is increasing.

Storm intensity is on the rise, increasing the probability of something bad happening. PLUS the value of the stuff--boats in our case--is increasing. That and there are more people choosing to put themselves in harm's way, increasing the value of stuff that gets broken.

Don't take my word for it. Here is the number of $billion+ disasters in the United States over the past 40 years (adjusted for inflation). The trend is obvious.






Interestingly, it is the growth in severe storms that appears to be driving the dramatic increase in number of $billion+ disasters. Along with increasing value of stuff. But after the damage from Ira is tallied up, 2020-2022 will have been a banner 3-year period for $billion+ hurricane damage (at least 13 so far), approaching 2017 (Harvey+) and 2005 (Katrina) in costs.

Bold words from a guy in California waiting on the next big earthquake. The longer it's been since the last one, the closer we are to the next.

But I think it is self-evident that we are all going to be paying higher insurance premiums for just about everything and government is going to struggle with the increasing economic and human costs. In the end, Ian just may be adding to the overall increase in costs, not really driving an increase per se.

 

[DDW]

Thing about the west coast is, the risk - to boats - from earthquake, wildfire, freezing, tropical cyclones, flood, winter storms, severe storms, and drought is vanishingly small. Very tiny risk of tsunami in some limited locations.

 

[garbler]

Thing about the west coast is, the risk - to boats - from earthquake, wildfire, freezing, tropical cyclones, flood, winter storms, severe storms, and drought is vanishingly small. Very tiny risk of tsunami in some limited locations.

Okay so now you’re just smacking us around with facts huh ? See how you are ! But the risk of Teredos is growing every year if this irresponsible push for clean waters continues on the West coast and everybody will suffer.

 

[Blissboat]

But the risk of Teredos is growing every year if this irresponsible push for clean waters continues on the West coast and everybody will suffer.

Teredos, schmeredos. It's the voracious mutant polyestermites that scare me. Fiberglass was supposed to last forever!

 

[garbler]

Teredos, schmeredos. It's the voracious mutant polyestermites that scare me. Fiberglass was supposed to last forever!

You crack me up pard

 

[ranger58sb]

About the best you can do is tape up the windows and clear any loose crap out of the yard
Couple of hours and done.

It took us two days to hang our hurricane shutters when we lived in South Florida. And we had to be finished at least 2 days before the storm actually "arrived" 'cause otherwise it would be too windy to manage each of the panels...

-Chris

 

[timb7734]

Caloosahatchee Locks

Locks were opened and left open 24/7 theee days before predicted landfall. All these assumptions about how many boats could get through are useless. The lake however is not always a safe haven as in the 20’s a hurricane blew the lake water out and west, hence the huge dyke on that side.

 

[psneeld]

Locks were opened and left open 24/7 theee days before predicted landfall. All these assumptions about how many boats could get through are useless. The lake however is not always a safe haven as in the 20’s a hurricane blew the lake water out and west, hence the huge dyke on that side.

Thank you for the info.

So it was a plausible escape route

I know that some bridges become obstacles and have to be plannex around

 

[Hippocampus]

So it was a plausible escape route

Plausible but not likely imho. Reality is between distance to truly reliably get out of the way or bottlenecks and choke points along the local paths to a safe harbor inland or lack of reliability that harbor is truly safe or likelihood that “hurricane hole” will be filled to capacity there’s no reliable option for Floridian boaters to stay out of harms way. Elsewhere in world there’s strong storm moorings. Yes, you’re still vulnerable to wind damage but as long as the attachments to your boat are strong and the pendant is strong and there’s no down flooding the boat should survive. I’ve seen cleats, pulpits even Sampson posts pulled out so this risk isn’t trivial for many recreational boats.
This is the 178 post. Discussion has been a lot about insurance or moving the boat. Insurance premiums will continue to increase. Moving the boat in proximity to the event is highly problematic. To my mind Floridian boaters will likely periodically take it on the chin that will not change until they’re either priced out or behavior changes with boats moving out of high risk areas seasonally. Believe many people here have a home in one state and boat in another. Believe many people here move or store their boats seasonally. Being subtropical Floridians have escaped that. Perhaps that should change.

 

[psneeld]

I would have taken it in a heartbeat and found out the likelyhood of making it to the east coast of Fl. In time.

But then that's me.

And I posted before....most boaters place saving their boat way down the list for many reasons.

One being is I dont think most know how or have the confidence to. Many barely can tie up a boat well on calm days.

 

[Hippocampus]

P I understand most boats are small undocumented vessels with valuations in the tens of thousands or less. A smaller segment documented with values in the hundreds of thousands. Then a few with values in the millions plus fractions there of. Looking at pictures on the web and speaking with friends down there much of the litter is in the second and third groups. It is to those two groups that I was addressing my comments. Surely once a vessel is worth more than $3-500k and depending upon your financial picture perhaps even less it becomes a major asset worth saving. Sure perhaps with a value of $100-200k you might say it is what it is and I’ll take my chances. Beyond trawlers there’s a lot of center consoles worth that and more. Understand decision matrix is different for each person. But I think there’s going to be a lot of folks (even after insurance) who are going to be out of a whole lot of money.