Milton

[mvweebles]

I don't put a ton of stock into models for exact details.

I'd encourage you to reconsider this. You mention hurricane Andrew (1992) which spurred a ton of investment and development in weather forecasting and of course prompted massive changes in building codes to make structures survivable.

The accuracy of storm forecasting has improved 100x in the 32 years since Andrew specifically because of ability not only to capture data, but sift our the meaningless data to derive true indicators. The forecast for Helene was one of the most accurate I can recall. Milton landfall and intensity has not changed much since it was barely a breeze hovering off Yucatan. In 1992, NHC could only "see" three days in advance and even then, didn't have a lot of insight into true impact forecast.

Peter

 

[PierreR]

I'd encourage you to reconsider this. You mention hurricane Andrew (1992) which spurred a ton of investment and development in weather forecasting and of course prompted massive changes in building codes to make structures survivable.

Peter, I understand what you are saying and yes things have improved drastically. A new, start from scratch model based on AI would be a huge improvement. Many models are code upon code over many years with nobody really knowing what all the code is really doing.
Most people interpret the graphics incorrectly and that is I guess more or less what I am alluding to. I should have said so instead of I don't put much stock in the models.
That cone 60 miles wide in not the hurricane force winds but the eye center probability. Hanging stock on a +- ten mile wobble when the cone is 60 miles wide is wishful thinking. Then again, if my home were on the beach within the cone, I might be changing my hopes and mood based on a 10 mile +or - wobble too.

 

[mvweebles]

The cone is margin of error. The NHC portrays track within +/- one sigma, which is to say there is a one in six chance it falls outside the cone. Over time, improved analytics have extended the forecast window and narrowed the cone. Improvements will continue but frankly are probably hampered by available computing power - the number of variables affecting weather are astronomical. When I retired 2-years ago, some of my interesting work was negotiating contracts with MIT-level wonks selling a process to refine oil that could not be demonstrated yet due to limitations on computing processors that simply didn't exist yet. In comparison, the use case was simple compared to weather.

Our house in Madeira Beach has 3.5 feet of water in the living room. We were in Mexico at the time and had a friend move out car to higher ground. I was stunned to learn that many of my neighbors stayed, and I saw hundreds of flooded cars get towed over the last week. As mentioned, the Helene forecast was incredibly accurate. I don't know what my neighbors were thinking when they decided to stay. one explained they had evacuated six times over 22 years and had grown complacent (their Tesla was flooded).

10-miles can make a huge difference if it puts you on the clean side. It's really remarkable.

The models are useful. But you must act on information.

Peter

 

[PierreR]

I hear you on the computing power. Resolution is still not small enough for accurate prediction of air mass thunderstorms. It's also the reason the wind apps struggle with a compact hurricane.
Helene was a large hurricane for most of it's track and that allowed the formation of a high widespread storm surge. This storm is currently compact and will likely increase in size but is still not likely to be close to the size of Helene.
If you read there actual forecasts for specific areas the winds and surge drop fairly quickly away from the predicted center so the storm is likely to be small.
Listening to the media cry wolf all the time is what causes complacency in your neighbors. Helene was accurately predicted.
I have a neighbor with a home in your area that largely had his winter home untouched by Helene according to neighbors. He just went down to check on it and found the home looted and his car missing.
I have a friend who rents a home in Venice and believes it will be okay because it is not on the water. I told him if it is okay, don't count on you being the renter.

 

[psneeld]

True I am not looking at a stream of raw data recorded/broadcast from hurricane hunter aircraft.

I am talking position/wind numbers published by NHC and similar data that all the "pictures" are drawn from.

Not a scientist, but an operator. Guess I should have been more clear on using the term "raw".

 

[O C Diver]

Forward speed has increased to 16 MPH (normal is around 14 MPH), which translates into less time to push storm surge water inland.

With the storm cone narrowing, it's likely I wont see hurricane force winds (>74 MPH). Rain totals also look to be lower for my area.

Keeping fingers crossed.

Ted

 

[SIBERNUT]

It's surprising how many cars with blown engines manage to get near the beach.

 

[slowgoesit]

Often behind tow trucks . . . .

 

[balder8]

Hi, we have had today 55 knots max of wind in Royan, atlantic coast of France. Few days with a lot of rain, KIRK finishing acceptable surge corresponding the coef of the tide. Nothing to compare with what may happen in FL. Our best and friendly wishes to the trawler communauty - and others- in the area!

 

[Barking Sands]

Getting good gusts. Monitoring the boat via wifi cameras. Surge is still negative in Tarpon Springs.

 

[Seevee]

St Pete is currently with winds NE 25 g to 40kts, and forecast to hit 40 g to 70, which will be sporty. (aviation wx at the airport)

Have friends that are there that give me some info, but have no surge info. Hopefully it will be minimal.

Weebles, I have a friend on Madeira Beach over by the Elks and was offered a two story house close by. With 4 ft of water, he and his wife had to be rescued and survived ok.

Hope the boat does well. It's well tied down on all around. And I just did my update on the lines and anchors. We'll see.

Waiting for the 5 o'clock update

 

[O C Diver]

NOAA 5pm forecast has Milton down to 120 MPH with a forward speed of 17 MPH. Projected track has landfall around Sarasota. Peak storm surge heights have increased modestly.

Fingers still crossed.

Ted

 

[bowball]

Prayers and strongest best wishes for everyone in the path.

 

[kthoennes]

Lots of webcams in the projected storm locations but I tend to look for marina cams so I can see boat movement. Here's Riverhouse Palmetto, between Sarasota and Tampa. Live on top, time lapse below. That party barge is sure tied loosely at the stern and it's moving around a lot, but maybe that's on purpose to accommodate a storm surge.

The Riverhouse Palmetto

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