PM story on a sunken GB in Hopetown

[Group9]

Good link, thanks. Kinda how Jack Reacher acts.

I note, on August 27th, in the Dorian thread you stated things were going to get pretty sporty in the Bahamas. Sadly prophetic.

Unfortunately, living on the Mississippi gulf coast, hurricane study and prediction becomes one of our hobbies, and we do get good at it (even though, I sure never saw Dorian being as bad as it turned out to be). I had been in the Abacos after Floyd, and that was what I was expecting to happen again.

 

[BandB]

To me the discussion of intensification gives more credence to moving than staing put.

As the Abacos found out as well as Florida's panhandle last year...surviving a CAT 5 hit is never a good bet....moving gives you some chance....and often seen...you really don't have to move far to escape the worst of it.

You just have to have a tidbit for which way and even then be prepared to move again.

No....leaving port for the open ocean is not a great option...but I think that's Ski's point. If you are on a small island during hurricane season, you have already limited your chances. Staying there when there is a chance to move...well...sort of the same argument.

I agree that the recent trend toward intensification well above initial forecasts does give more credence to moving elsewhere, whether just one's self or their boat.

For multiple reasons we have no plans to move our boats. As to ourselves, we've always felt comfortable staying in our house. There has never been a CAT 5 to hit where we live, our max is 120-130 mph. We've never had more than 6' storm surge and that's extremely rare. We've had greater north and south of Fort Lauderdale. Wilma caused damage in the area but only had 105 mph winds. We've contemplated potential of 140 or even 150 mph. But then comes the question of 185 mph. We've never really contemplated that before, but then neither had the Abacos. Mexico City FL had never expected anything like Michael.

Now there are some significant differences. We're on higher ground and could easily move even higher with Abacos level floods. There are miles of land. So, while I'm fine being on this peninsula, I wouldn't be on an small island. Perhaps not on a large island, after Maria and Puerto Rico.

So, I do feel comfortable where I am but slightly less so than before. There are many places I would not want to be however. Islands and very low lands are at the top of that list.

 

[ksanders]

The person that lost his boat learned a very expensive and very serious lesson.
He learned that when in doubt run away from a storm.
I am pretty sure he thinks about this pretty constantly right now.

He not only thinks of his lost boat, he thinks of the quality time that he spent with his wife and guests, hoping they were going to live through this hurricane.

I would bet money that if someone asked him if presented with the same scenario, would he make the same decision again, that he would choose to run from the storm.

So instead of sitting here trying to justify a decision that he himself would probably make differently given the chance, I think that it might be better learn from this so that some day you are not posting a similar story thinking that you remember this guy in Dorian that stayed and lost his boat and almost got killed.

 

[Group9]

I don't think I've ever heard anyone say that Marsh Harbor was a good place to ride even a Cat 1 out for a boat. Great Harbor Cay Marina, yeah, Cave Cay Marina, yeah, Atlantis Marina, yeah, but there just aren't that many good hurricane holes/hurricane resistant marinas in the Bahamas.

Everybody has to make their own decision, but I would have been more scared to stay than to run. Especially, if you had a buddy boat to go with you in case of major mechanical failure. I know a professional captain who moved the boat he runs, from West Palm Beach to his hurricane hole in Broward County on August 27. I would have been leaving the Bahamas the same day, at the very least.

 

[Bud]

This thread is depressing. all I see is criticism. and then you have the critcism of the critics. All justifyed by hypotheticals and speculation.

 

[OldDan1943]

This thread is depressing. all I see is criticism. and then you have the critcism of the critics. All justifyed by hypotheticals and speculation.

Once you make a decision to remain on board, there comes a time when it is too dangerous to leave the boat then, you are left with one option. "Fight it from on board the boat."
Per the worse case, if it happens, you can do nothing other than enjoy the ride, so to speak.

 

[Boat]

So, if you find yourself in Abaco in the face of an approaching storm, your best bet is to tuck deeply in the bay and tie off as best you could.

I like your posts and understand what you are saying. But you couldn't pay me any amount of money to have ridden out that storm on any boat, in any of the pictures that I've seen.

https://myfox8.com/2019/09/07/baham...meless-by-hurricane-dorian-seek-food-shelter/

 

[Bud]

Once you make a decision to remain on board, there comes a time when it is too dangerous to leave the boat then, you are left with one option. "Fight it from on board the boat."
Per the worse case, if it happens, you can do nothing other than enjoy the ride, so to speak.

I was at a customers today and their son is a pilot over in Marsh harbor and Abacos. He said they do not need anymore food or water its just sitting on the dock spoiling everybody is leaving because the place is destroyed and debris removal not going so well because the smell of decaying bodies is so bad they can't stand it.

 

[McGillicuddy]

I like your posts and understand what you are saying. But you couldn't pay me any amount of money to have ridden out that storm on any boat, in any of the pictures that I've seen.

Me either. I should have said tie off the boat best you could and get the hell outta there if possible.

My main point was that they were in a bad place at a bad time and options were few. Running for it was not a good option from Marsh Harbor at 6-8 knots. Staying put wasn’t a great choice either but did give them a better chance of surviving in my opinion. The guy loved his boat, that was obvious from his blog. It caused him to be blind to the option of leaving it behind which is my secondary point.


BTW somebody must have tried running for it and failed. 14 bricks of cocaine have washed up on the beaches of Melbourne in the last few days.

I’ll be quiet now.

 

[OldDan1943]

BTW somebody must have tried running for it and failed. 14 bricks of cocaine have washed up on the beaches of Melbourne in the last few days.

I’ll be quiet now.

You mean, 'so far, 14 bricks of cocaine have been turned in to the authorities.'

For a little fun, let's say you discovered brick of cocaine floating.
1. you call the authorities, right?
2. you tell them the location and steam away?
3. you tell them the location and remain in the area?
4. you tell them, you are collecting the bricks and will give them to the proper authorities
5. you steam away and say nothing..... leaving all of it where you discovered it.

 

[ksanders]

I like your posts and understand what you are saying. But you couldn't pay me any amount of money to have ridden out that storm on any boat, in any of the pictures that I've seen.

Me either. I should have said tie off the boat best you could and get the hell outta there if possible.

My main point was that they were in a bad place at a bad time and options were few. Running for it was not a good option from Marsh Harbor at 6-8 knots. Staying put wasn’t a great choice either but did give them a better chance of surviving in my opinion. The guy loved his boat, that was obvious from his blog. It caused him to be blind to the option of leaving it behind which is my secondary point.


BTW somebody must have tried running for it and failed. 14 bricks of cocaine have washed up on the beaches of Melbourne in the last few days.

I’ll be quiet now.

Sorry but that is just not true.

Here is a link to a youtube video of a couple that took their sail boat from Marsh Harbor out of harms way.

 

[psneeld]

An important point the guy made is the same as mine...it's not always about running from the storm, but trying to get to a more suitable hurricane hole.

 

[ksanders]

Sorry but that is just not true.

Here is a link to a youtube video of a couple that took their sail boat from Marsh Harbor out of harms way.

Here is the forecast map from 11PM Tuesday

By then it was pretty clear that the Abacos were going to get hit.

The anticipated time to get to the Abacos was 8PM saturday.

Four days. 96 hours. 7 knots 672 miles of potential escape travel.

 

[menzies]

Statistically Wilmington, NC should have been safe this year after last year.


It darn near got slammed again.

I would go even further. Statistically Halifax NS, should have been safe this year after the last fifty years! Marinas lost and boats sunk.

Every boater is different. Isn't that why we love to celebrate vive la difference?

My take. If I picture myself sitting in the marina bar having a beer with someone as they were making this type of decision and I could not, at that time, argue that they were making a bad decision, then I would never later argue that they had made a bad decision.

An awkward way of saying hindsight is 20/20 vision.

We all have to live (hopefully every time) with our bad decisions. Last year we decided to leave Fort Pierce and beat a front across the Gulf Stream to Grand Cay. We knew that we would be stuck in the US for up to a week if we didn't go "now." The unfavorable weather front was forecast to start coming through around 5-6pm by every source we used. By which time, leaving at first light, we would be well on the Bahamas bank. It came in with a vengeance at 11am, while we right in the middle of the stream. And we got pounded. Ended up changing our angle to the pounding and getting into Great Sale in pitch black around 11pm using matching radar and plotter to avoid other sheltered vessels. 12 hours pounding near head on seas. It was like a Hollywood scene where the special effects guys were throwing buckets of water onto our PH window in the dark.

If a bunch of us had been sitting around the bar the night before looking at the data we had, would anyone have said "don't go?" Dunno, but I suspect not

After that day, Sian said "next time we look for three good weather window days in a row and we go on the second. Pretty profound!

 

[BandB]

Here is the forecast map from 11PM Tuesday

By then it was pretty clear that the Abacos were going to get hit.

The anticipated time to get to the Abacos was 8PM saturday.

Four days. 96 hours. 7 knots 672 miles of potential escape travel.

Actually there was debate at that time of whether over Abacos or north of Abacos. Do also keep in mind that at 11 PM on Tuesday, it was forecast to be a CAT 1. It was not until the following day that it changed to CAT 2 and then CAT 3 and two days later it changed to CAT 4. The realization of what was facing them hadn't hit yet, hadn't hit them or the NHC or any of the models.

 

[ksanders]

Actually there was debate at that time of whether over Abacos or north of Abacos. Do also keep in mind that at 11 PM on Tuesday, it was forecast to be a CAT 1. It was not until the following day that it changed to CAT 2 and then CAT 3 and two days later it changed to CAT 4. The realization of what was facing them hadn't hit yet, hadn't hit them or the NHC or any of the models.

Thats true.

Possibly the owner thought that Marsh Harbor would be safe in 80 knot winds.
I do not know the area or the harbor, but I am afraid of 80 knot sustained winds.

My point is, and believe you me I am learning myself since I plan on venturing into Mexico in less than 24 months, is that choices can be made. The risk of running in this case was very minimal. I have plotted wind speeds and the winds were 4-5 knots, making for zero wind waves on top of swell.

If presented with a risk I will be running away, and I hope that others can learn (as I am) from this persons misfortune.

 

[O C Diver]

Part of my wonderment at the story of these two couples in the Bahamas stems from Hurricane Irma 2017 and the Virgin Islands. One has to only look 2 years previously to see an area around 500 miles away getting throughly stomped by a Cat 5 hurricane. I guess I just don't understand the reasoning for being in an extremely high risk area during the very peak of hurricane season.

Ted

 

[BandB]

Thats true.

Possibly the owner thought that Marsh Harbor would be safe in 80 knot winds.
I do not know the area or the harbor, but I am afraid of 80 knot sustained winds.

My point is, and believe you me I am learning myself since I plan on venturing into Mexico in less than 24 months, is that choices can be made. The risk of running in this case was very minimal. I have plotted wind speeds and the winds were 4-5 knots, making for zero wind waves on top of swell.

If presented with a risk I will be running away, and I hope that others can learn (as I am) from this persons misfortune.

Easy to run away from somewhere that's not important to you, but harder to leave your home and everything you own. Most of the people who stayed are locals. Run where? To Nassau? Freeport wouldn't have worked out well, although better.

80 mph winds would have caused very little damage, all repairable by the people there. Even 100 mph. Keep in mind also that those maximum speeds generally get a very small area. In the US, there is no evacuation for winds, but is for surge and in most areas that evacuation is CAT 3 and above. As to marinas and boatyards, most would have been fine at 80 and mixed results at 100. Tropical storm winds are quite common in Florida and in the Bahamas. There's a lot of difference between 80 or 100 and 185.

 

[Bigsfish]

So a number of years ago we are in Blackpoint ( between Staniel and Georgetown) we have been following a hurricane for a few days trying to decide what I am going to do. I know of a creek nearby to tie off, there is Wardrik Wells but I called and they won’t let me stay, there is Norman’s Pond but it could get nasty if the wind comes in through the entrance. So what to do. Maybe sink the boat in shallow water which is common in the Bahamas. Hard decision and until you’ve been there you don’t know.
I awoke the next morning and the storm is bearing down on us. If I’m going to run it needs to be know. I have enough fuel to make Nassau, what if they don’t have fuel.

So I run for it, get fuel in Nassau and push on to Chub, 14 hour day. Next morning up and ran to Miami. It’s good to be safe.

The hurricane went a little east and north on the Exumas with little damage to the area we were in.

Did I make the correct decision?

 

[Group9]

Well, the people who stayed and lost their boat didn’t hurt anyone but themselves, so if they are happy with their call, no one else has any reason to be unhappy about it (short of it contributing to our ever increasing insurance premiums).

 

[Ski in NC]

Actually there was debate at that time of whether over Abacos or north of Abacos. Do also keep in mind that at 11 PM on Tuesday, it was forecast to be a CAT 1. It was not until the following day that it changed to CAT 2 and then CAT 3 and two days later it changed to CAT 4. The realization of what was facing them hadn't hit yet, hadn't hit them or the NHC or any of the models.

It does not matter whether it was a cat 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 in Marsh Harbour. There is plenty of exposed fetch in there and any boat piling tied will be beat. Many boats in my area of NC have been thrashed, broken and sunk in a cat 1 with way less fetch than Marsh has.

Dealing with canes forces ones to make decisions with incomplete information. The NHC and the variety of spaghetti models and prognosticators are working in a probabilistic realm. In the target area you can not put much faith into any one of them. It could hit you, it could miss you, it could get stronger, it could get weaker.

But you can easily minimize the risk. Just avoid the more distant Bahamas in the peak of cane season. That's how I do it.

 

[OldDan1943]

Did I make the correct decision?

If you lived though it, you made the correct decision.
Was it a wise decision.... that is open for your reflection.

 

[Monk38]

Folks have heart for these folks who lost their boat. I will say that Had Carpe Diem been at Abaco, without crew on board, I doubt i would have been able to get her out. These storms spin up and are on top of 7 or 8 knot boat so quickly. In 2004, Carpe Diem took 2 direct hit from Jeanne and Francis within three weeks of each other at Leisure Lee on Abaco. She wiped out her dock and bent her rudder in the first storm and had to sit through the second one. The water was at least 4 feet over the land. It sounds like Dorian was 20+! We had to tow Carpe Diem to Bradfords on Grand Bahama for repairs.The Dorian reports were all over the map so on Thursday, so I ran Carpe Diem from Pompano up the New River in Lauderdale to I 95 and removed her Bimini top. Friday, the models converged on the palm beach Martin County line and the weather service was at that moment speaking in certain terms so we shuttered the house and drove to Lake Lanier in Georgia because we don't enjoy listening to wind or our generators any more. With the information available, the only place to run back from to Florida from Abaco or Grand Bahama in my book would have been 1) up the New River in Fort Lauderdale or 2) up the Okeechobee waterway behind the locks. Without reservations prepaid in advance, there is no space available. Here is the 2004 Abaco hurricane history http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/abacoisland.htm

 

[Grandbanks3642]

This thread is depressing. all I see is criticism. and then you have the critcism of the critics. All justifyed by hypotheticals and speculation.

This is very true. It is great these people made it out alive, there lucky. Some of you all are dragging them over the coals for losing a significant part of there life. Don’t beat a man while he is down

 

[psneeld]

If all one sees in this thread is criticism and beating a man down....that is equally depressing.....amazingly enough there is more here than that.



Learning from the circumstances of others is an important part of life.

 

[Grandbanks3642]

If all one sees in this thread is criticism and beating a man down....that is equally depressing.....amazingly enough there is more here than that.



Learning from the circumstances of others is an important part of life.

I understand that but, I think some comments on this thread are unneeded and insensitive.

 

[ksanders]

I understand that but, I think some comments on this thread are unneeded and insensitive.

I would submit that if one is to learn from another persons experiences then they need to be completely honest with their assessment.

We try to do this in as nice of a way as possible, but rest assured that many organizations analyze situations looking for the root cause. They are not doing this to punish, or belittle people, they do this to gather data and learn from that data so that the same situation is not repeated.

 

[Grandbanks3642]

I would submit that if one is to learn from another persons experiences then they need to be completely honest with their assessment.

We try to do this in as nice of a way as possible, but rest assured that many organizations analyze situations looking for the root cause. They are not doing this to punish, or belittle people, they do this to gather data and learn from that data so that the same situation is not repeated.

I understand, and thank you for the explanation.

 

[slowgoesit]

It's always easier to arm chair quarterback . . . at a later time . . . when you are in possession of many MANY more facts than the original individuals may have had access to.

Like aircraft investigation, "Gee, here is what the weather actually DID, see those conditions that actually occurred and the icing that occurred? (that wasn't in the forecast) What kind of an idiot would go flying in THOSE conditions?!?

I for one won't attempt to second guess an owners decision based on one heartfelt, emotional writing that was meant to be informative and cautionary, but was written so soon after loosing his home, all his possessions, and almost, his life, and the lives of those he holds dear.

Take from it what you may, change your future plans, actions, as you see fit. Learn from this, or it was all for nought.

 

[psneeld]

We are learning from Monday morning quarterbacking....it's the same for aircraft investigations . Armchair quarterbacking is about those who have no clue...some though have " been there, done that", got the t-shirt, are experienced enough to comment on many different levels.


While personal attacts past evaluating personal decisions might be out of order...second guessing them and the outcomes are what it's all about.


I can't say for sure, but I am guessing the article that was written was a "paid for" article ...what better piece of info to tear apart? A newspaper article full of errors maybe.


I spent 2 careers flying/ boat driving into storms to save people from their "judgement"...so I have no qualms in picking apart those decisions.


My view is this forum is that it ain't a club where we are all "buddies"....it's a place to learn....sometimes that can be viewed as ugly by some....but unless it is mean spirited or obnoxious to all....it's the way if the internet.


I make no apologies for anything said and I really don't think anyone has been out of line so far.