mvweebles
Guru
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2019
- Messages
- 7,724
- Location
- United States
- Vessel Name
- Weebles
- Vessel Make
- 1970 Willard 36 Trawler
Unless you know why the euro model was correct, it could be dumb luck.
The financial world is full of advisors who get it right once in a while. Is it brilliance, or is it the rooster taking credit for the sunrise? I don't know.
Forums like this are full of posts about how someone got their ass handed to them because a forecast was wrong. My thinking is that you need to see the pressure systems to give you highbeams on what might change. Perhaps all you need to do is just choose the Euro model and forget about learning any meteorology. But best would be having access to the underlying data - where is it? Would allow a mariner to anticipate much better. Using Ian as an example, if Euro was unwavering, was for a reason. What was the reason? For GFS, they were blunt about the 3d chess of pressure systems that broke down and caused rhe storm to move. Made perfect sense. What were the underlying forecast models of Euro?
Does beg the question, if the Euro model is so accurate, why doesn't the GFS model just use the Euro model and call it good?
Peter
The financial world is full of advisors who get it right once in a while. Is it brilliance, or is it the rooster taking credit for the sunrise? I don't know.
Forums like this are full of posts about how someone got their ass handed to them because a forecast was wrong. My thinking is that you need to see the pressure systems to give you highbeams on what might change. Perhaps all you need to do is just choose the Euro model and forget about learning any meteorology. But best would be having access to the underlying data - where is it? Would allow a mariner to anticipate much better. Using Ian as an example, if Euro was unwavering, was for a reason. What was the reason? For GFS, they were blunt about the 3d chess of pressure systems that broke down and caused rhe storm to move. Made perfect sense. What were the underlying forecast models of Euro?
Does beg the question, if the Euro model is so accurate, why doesn't the GFS model just use the Euro model and call it good?
Peter
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