Case in point on boat prices today

[backinblue]

Man plans, God laughs! Talk about thread drift, this was about used boat prices and now is about life and death and retirement?

And you may ask yourself, "Well, how did I get here?" - David Byrne

 

[FWT]

Doug: GREAT story

 

[PattiS]

Doug: GREAT story

As the other half of his story, I agree it is a great story. When we were getting reacquainted, we realized that we had spent the 41 years apart growing more perfect for each other before we agreed to meet in person. Meeting in person again quickly confirmed what we already knew. We just celebrated 7 years since that in person meeting last week.

 

[CharlieO.]

Man plans, God laughs! Talk about thread drift, this was about used boat prices and now is about life and death and retirement?

And you may ask yourself, "Well, how did I get here?" - David Byrne

Pay up now because tomorrow is not guaranteed.

 

[backinblue]

Pay up now because tomorrow is not guaranteed.

What does that mean, spend all I have today?

 

[CharlieO.]

What does that mean, spend all I have today?

Not necessarily, but maybe paying a 10% premium could be worth it. But maybe there is why I am poor.

 

[FWT]

As the other half of his story, I agree it is a great story. When we were getting reacquainted, we realized that we had spent the 41 years apart growing more perfect for each other before we agreed to meet in person. Meeting in person again quickly confirmed what we already knew. We just celebrated 7 years since that in person meeting last week.

Fantastic. Congratulations.

How you know you have found "the one": they too speak diesel and amps. They are playing "our song" when the sound of anchor chain reverberates.

 

[Hippocampus]

Sold our prior boat at ask on first offer. Boat was bought sight unseen by new owner. Sold that boat because wife fell off the top rung of the ladder when she was on the hard in Grenada so unsafe on the foredeck for passage making. Both of us still wanted a boat. First wanted to replace a blue water sail with blue water power. Wife said no let’s look at quality coastal as well. Bought a NT42 which was set up for full time cruising. Figure we can run it as long as we can walk.
Yes, boats are hugely overpriced at present. Given cruising sail and power people are not being replaced by the next generation there’s no question the bubble will collapse independent of Covid or other concerns. Very few of current crop of 20s and 30s year olds have any interest in cruising and you no longer see the 2 footitis of prior generations. So it’s no only a cold shower ripping up thousand dollar bills. It’s a whole in the water. Although I don’t have 1% of the resources of Bill Gates I do agree with his attitude on this one thing. Make sure your descendants have a future and reasonably sufficient resources. Beyond that money has no intrinsic value. It’s a tool that allows you to do things you value. Been doing boats for most of my adult life. Still nearly clueless about so many things with much to learn. Love learning for learning’s sake. Been a lot of places but not nearly as many as I want to see.

 

[backinblue]

I feel so bad for Bill Gates' kids. Sounds like they will get a miniscule $10M each from his trillions. I wish I was so unlucky. I had to work hard 45 years to accumlate a portion of that. I would say that's a sufficient resource to get your kids started. Doesn't matter that they are already likely to have millions in wealth and real estate, etc. Poor babies.

 

[Helmsman]

As the other half of his story, I agree it is a great story. When we were getting reacquainted, we realized that we had spent the 41 years apart growing more perfect for each other before we agreed to meet in person. Meeting in person again quickly confirmed what we already knew. We just celebrated 7 years since that in person meeting last week.

Great outcome for the two of you.

 

[Helmsman]

Sold our prior boat at ask on first offer. Boat was bought sight unseen by new owner. Sold that boat because wife fell off the top rung of the ladder when she was on the hard in Grenada so unsafe on the foredeck for passage making. Both of us still wanted a boat. First wanted to replace a blue water sail with blue water power. Wife said no let’s look at quality coastal as well. Bought a NT42 which was set up for full time cruising. Figure we can run it as long as we can walk.
Yes, boats are hugely overpriced at present. Given cruising sail and power people are not being replaced by the next generation there’s no question the bubble will collapse independent of Covid or other concerns. Very few of current crop of 20s and 30s year olds have any interest in cruising and you no longer see the 2 footitis of prior generations. So it’s no only a cold shower ripping up thousand dollar bills. It’s a whole in the water. Although I don’t have 1% of the resources of Bill Gates I do agree with his attitude on this one thing. Make sure your descendants have a future and reasonably sufficient resources. Beyond that money has no intrinsic value. It’s a tool that allows you to do things you value. Been doing boats for most of my adult life. Still nearly clueless about so many things with much to learn. Love learning for learning’s sake. Been a lot of places but not nearly as many as I want to see.

There will be a downturn. Could be a big one. It will involve more than boating. And I think we will see it go on for awhile, like the seventies did. Maybe much longer. Most of us don’t have that kind of time.

I feel the same as you about boats. Love to learn, but will never learn everything, which is part of the fun.

 

[Seevee]

Lots of great stories here! And there's NO reason not to enjoy life... even from the beginning.
I could argue that early on whey you don't have shet, NEVER spend more than you earn, and NEVER borrow for toys, and a good plan is to live off of less than HALF you earn and invest the rest wisely.

So, ya start out with a really modest boat... perhaps a row boat, but you enjoy and have fun, without going in debt. So, the dollars you're saving, most goes into future retirement but a little bit buys you the next toy. And so forth.

So you end up in a position to retire early, but have enjoyed life over the years. It works, but need some sacrifices in the beginning.

I've always enjoyed time off, fun times, toys, travel, etc... just different levels over time. My things are boats and planes and have always had them since in college. Now, a lot of folks wouldn't have liked to fly in my first plane, no electrical, hand prop, not lights, no radios, but have some memories in that plane that I'll cherish forever, and it cost me a whopping $2K to buy. Starting with a flight around Lake Michigan that I probably could have done faster in a boat. An my first boat was a POS, old aluminum Chrysler, with and old crappy Chrysler engine. Took it to key west and kept it there....flew down to use it.

Well, after 20 planes and 21 boats later, trips all over the world, from camping under the stars to 5 star hotels in Hong Kong, life owes me nothing, but will continue to enjoy regardless.

So DO IT.... spend those saved dollars and enjoy them. Ya can't take it with ya.

 

[Hippocampus]

Think income inequality is up there as one of our major problems. Don’t think Melinda and Bill are without sin. However, better than a whole lot of 1% ers in some respects. Point I was trying to make wasn’t that our society is so reprehensibly distorted with capital not labor being the source of vast wealth but rather that money isn’t an end unto its self. Still, I wish he’d adopt me before his divorce.

Would note sometimes it makes sense to play with other peoples money. Nothing wrong with that. Have had boat loans and house mortgages and have paid cash. Last boat and house were cash. Be flexible but realistic. People get into trouble when they make emotional but not rational decisions. The mantra among blue water sailors is go early go small. Some truth to that.

 

[SteveK]

Lots of great stories here! And there's NO reason not to enjoy life... even from the beginning.
I could argue that early on whey you don't have shet, NEVER spend more than you earn, and NEVER borrow for toys, and a good plan is to live off of less than HALF you earn and invest the rest wisely.

So, ya start out with a really modest boat... perhaps a row boat, but you enjoy and have fun, without going in debt. So, the dollars you're saving, most goes into future retirement but a little bit buys you the next toy. And so forth.

So you end up in a position to retire early, but have enjoyed life over the years. It works, but need some sacrifices in the beginning.

I've always enjoyed time off, fun times, toys, travel, etc... just different levels over time. My things are boats and planes and have always had them since in college. Now, a lot of folks wouldn't have liked to fly in my first plane, no electrical, hand prop, not lights, no radios, but have some memories in that plane that I'll cherish forever, and it cost me a whopping $2K to buy. Starting with a flight around Lake Michigan that I probably could have done faster in a boat. An my first boat was a POS, old aluminum Chrysler, with and old crappy Chrysler engine. Took it to key west and kept it there....flew down to use it.

Well, after 20 planes and 21 boats later, trips all over the world, from camping under the stars to 5 star hotels in Hong Kong, life owes me nothing, but will continue to enjoy regardless.

So DO IT.... spend those saved dollars and enjoy them. Ya can't take it with ya.

Seevee I agree with what you said except for the bolded. That part is for the minority of the working class that earn above minimum (not wage) wants and needs income. Those that have money left at the end of month.
The majority lives from paycheck to paycheck and cannot find a nickel to invest always being short at month end. You need disposable income to invest whether it is a boat or the stock market.
At least that is/was my life story.

 

[Seevee]

Hippo,


True, money isn't the end all, but sure help to get things done, and the lack of enough is really hard. There are many things more important that money.... health, friends, boat and good beer. What else do you need?

 

[guy with a boat]

Yes, boats are hugely overpriced at present. Given cruising sail and power people are not being replaced by the next generation there’s no question the bubble will collapse independent of Covid or other concerns.

I recently came across a Forbes article from the 90’s making exactly the same points about prices for larger single-family homes being affected by demographics, with the conclusion that home prices would decline over the following decades. Economic predictions are tough.

 

[socalrider]

Economic predictions are tough.

Especially about the future!

 

[bowball]

There will be a downturn. Could be a big one. It will involve more than boating. And I think we will see it go on for awhile, like the seventies did. Maybe much longer. Most of us don’t have that kind of time.

I feel the same as you about boats. Love to learn, but will never learn everything, which is part of the fun.

Markets are driven by fear and greed. Emotional participants forget the certain loss of inflation and the possible loss of capital in investing.

There will always be a future downturn. How much upside is missed before then?

 

[catalinajack]

I work to live. I don’t live to work.

The difference between many Americans and Europeans.

 

[Art]

I work to live. I don’t live to work.

The difference between many Americans and Europeans.

Work is living if you love what your work is. If you don't love your work - then you are actually, well, just working... rather than living as you accomplish what you love to do.

 

[catalinajack]

Work is living if you love what your work is. If you don't love your work - then you are actually, well, just working... rather than living as you accomplish what you love to do.

Yup, but my guess is that loving work is uniquely American.

 

[Art]

Yup, but my guess is that loving work is uniquely American.

For goodness sake. Unless a person is born with the silver spoon up you know where - LOL...

Then, some sort of work for means of income is imperative/required.

Soooo, IMHO, it is way better to perform a work you really enjoy [i.e. love] doing than a work you really do not like to do. Pretty simple to chose work you love... there's thousands of work-conditions available to pursue!

 

[mvweebles]

I recently came across a Forbes article from the 90’s making exactly the same points about prices for larger single-family homes being affected by demographics, with the conclusion that home prices would decline over the following decades. Economic predictions are tough.

I remember reading long threads early in the pandemic about how a recession was imminent and boat prices would crash as no one could afford them. Had many salivating at the opportunity to pay pennies on the dollar.

Simply is not possible to have gotten it more wrong. Not saying the conclusions didn't make sense. Just saying it never seems go work out the way you think it will. And we are now coming up to 2 years elapsed with no end in sight beyond waiting.

As Mike Tyson famously said "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face".

 

[Helmsman]

I remember reading long threads early in the pandemic about how a recession was imminent and boat prices would crash as no one could afford them. Had many salivating at the opportunity to pay pennies on the dollar.

Simply is not possible to have gotten it more wrong. Not saying the conclusions didn't make sense. Just saying it never seems go work out the way you think it will. And we are now coming up to 2 years elapsed with no end in sight beyond waiting.

As Mike Tyson famously said "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face".

Look up Ray Dalio and read some of his economic work. He takes a long term historical view comparing the US economy to the Dutch and the English economies over the past 500 years. They both were the reserve currency for the world. They both made moves which caused them to lose that advantage with the British decline culminating at the Swansea conference in 1947 when the US became the reserve currency.

The US is doing the same thing now. What he predicted prior to the pandemic has accelerated, I think beyond control. He is worth a study, if you are interested in economics.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. mv. Yep, and Yogi Berra said..."When you come to a fork in the road, take it." One makes decisions based on what one thinks is the "best" at the time. That "punch in the face" can occur at ANY time.



"Never give up...Never surrender".

 

[FWT]

I remember reading long threads early in the pandemic about how a recession was imminent and boat prices would crash as no one could afford them. Had many salivating at the opportunity to pay pennies on the dollar.

Simply is not possible to have gotten it more wrong. Not saying the conclusions didn't make sense. Just saying it never seems go work out the way you think it will. And we are now coming up to 2 years elapsed with no end in sight beyond waiting.

As Mike Tyson famously said "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face".

Since we have wandered into econ ...

Folks know of Nassim Taleb even if they don't know the name. He is the guy who coined the phrase Black Swan Event. He has a lot of interesting insights.

One basic one is, there are far too many variables involved with everything to forecast anything reliably. The most you can do is to observe pressures building up. Those pressures can be resolved with a pop of the balloon or the air let out slowly, but need to be resolved somehow. And you can't know how much pressure is too much pressure.

The end result of that is that you can't predict the future but you can observe with clarity where things are today and where they were yesterday. For example, you can observe what the dividend yield is on the S&P vs bonds of whatever duration that interests you. And you can choose which holds the most value vs risks.

You cannot know how long health will hold up. You can make the judgement as to whether cash invested beats cash put into a boat is preferable for you, with all of your personal issues considered. You can make the comparison of putting cash into a boat vs cash into a second home waterfront condo.

I have owned 6 houses in my life. On some I made a lot of money, and on others I barely broke even. The difference is attributed to only 2 things: the macro boom / bust timing of real estate nationally, and whether that area of the country appreciated well or not. Neighborhood, style, condition and so forth were not relevant. Basically, it comes down to luck of timing. But selling high on one leads to buying high on the one that follows.

In the end, it is no more complex than looking at the choices you have, and choosing. If it takes some forecast to convince yourself your choice is smart, then go for it if it makes you feel better about making the choice.

 

[catalinajack]

For goodness sake. Unless a person is born with the silver spoon up you know where - LOL...



Then, some sort of work for means of income is imperative/required.



Soooo, IMHO, it is way better to perform a work you really enjoy [i.e. love] doing than a work you really do not like to do. Pretty simple to chose work you love... there's thousands of work-conditions available to pursue!

Who would not agree that it is better to do work that you enjoy rather than a job you hate? Kinda a no-brainer, I think. To me, any day not working at a job is better than any day working even if the work is at a job I like. When I retired (56yo) from a job I liked, I woke up on Monday morning and said "ahhhh". I never for one moment missed that job.

 

[rslifkin]

Yup, but my guess is that loving work is uniquely American.

I'm not sure it is. It's not necessarily common anywhere, but you do hear those stories of someone who just enjoys what they do for work, so they keep doing it even if they could retire. I briefly worked with a guy that spent years working for a college studying aging of paintings, etc. in museums. That was his post-retirement career. He enjoyed it enough that he only retired in his very late 80s when working every day started to become more of a challenge.

 

[backinblue]

Al very good points, I want to comment on many of them but won't. I do have to agree living off less than half your income is not possible for many average workers. There was a time when I was worried about how to pay the bills each month even while living very modestly. I did however always take advantage of IRAs and 401Ks early in my careeer because I believed the "it's not how much you make, it's how much you keep that matters". I always invested that money while minimizing taxes and accounts for the bulk of my savings today and allows me to not have to work. I do believe it is generational though. My millenial son saves next to nothing, but travels to foreign countries a couple times a year for vacations. He has already seen more of the world than I ever will. He doesn't seem to care about the long term. So who is right? I don't know, time will tell. Maybe he'll get rich from a small investment in crypto as he hopes he will. Maybe I'll die young enough that he will end up with a lot of my savings. While it's true that everyone says "spend your money, live for the moment, you can't take it with you, etc, We are all hedging our bets agains death. Biggest fear of most retirerees is running out of money. As someone else pointed out, predicting the future is kind of difficult. You might plan your money to live to be 80 but not die till 100.

 

[Art]

Who would not agree that it is better to do work that you enjoy rather than a job you hate? Kinda a no-brainer, I think. To me, any day not working at a job is better than any day working even if the work is at a job I like. When I retired (56yo) from a job I liked, I woke up on Monday morning and said "ahhhh". I never for one moment missed that job.

Jack

I believe this is the difference:

Maybe I'm incorrect, however from words in your posts... You apparently worked at a "job", for a paycheck [in work environments/arenas that others oversaw]. Jobs for which you did what was required but were happy to soon as possible get done with... My dad did the same. I watched him at times anguish over his then current job, or upcoming job, or looking for a new job. Swore I would let that happen to me. Now don't get me wrong - Dad was a highly educated and qualified engineer who made good buck$... "working" for others in famous corporations [Grumman, Westinghouse, American Bosch etc.] at the jobs he "worked" at. He retired at 53 and never looked back. God Bless Him. However... watching his "work" life [that was never really fulfilling to him] made me realize - "Work" [at a job others controlled] was not for me!

Soooo... I spend my life loving the excitement of self employment, while accomplishing project-developments I love. It is up to me what I do and where I do it and for the most part how long I do it. Therefore I only do what I love to do! In my very young [teenage] years I calculate I worked some 18 months for others - i.e. employed/"working" at a job, receiving a pay check and looking to asap stop "working" at that job. YUCK!!

Each of my businesses have been quite different in their operations and outcomes. Some made more money than others. One did not do well at all at its end - Ouch!! There is a creative mainstay business that is always available for me and easily expandable or contractible. That business often makes the cash to invest in other things. And it can even support me $$$ wi$e through economic down falls. I truly love and appreciate that business as well as the products that that business creates. I'm usually ready to take on projects in that business - unless, of course, I'm too busy building another business.

I love to be self employed and chose to create/manage/build only the businesses types I love to do. To me that is not what I call "work"[ing] for others... that is loving to work for myself in some sort of business-type I love to self employ - "work" in.

Matter O' Fact: A global scale business I've been building up to launch, ever since its origination in my mind's-eye in 1991 [that's right 1991] is soon to [hopefully soon to - LOL] receive a substantial funding package. "Save Earth's Ecosystem" is the mantra of my climate assistance LLC which is spearheading this enterprise. Moments after I complete this post I will jump into the Request For Proposal [RFP] I've been asked to provide by fund-ready groups. Wish me luck!

I do love what I do [i.e., "work" at]! 70 yrs old [B-Day 4/3/22] I plan to begin riding another business horse that I lovingly designed and created... this time... I plan to ride my business around the world!

Cheers!!

Art