What happens if you invest in AA and they go bust. Loose all?
Is there a stock that represents a collection of airlines and support business's?
An investment in the whole industry seems a better bet to me.
The US has 4,500 ICU beds, while a 30% infection rate across the country would see a requirement for 200,000 ICU spaces.
Okay so even if 10% of the total population becomes infected - a more than reasonable prospect - that represents 34.5 million X .002 =69,000 ICUs and current availability of only 4,500. This is a recipe for battlefield triage of a level being seen in Spain and Italy.
https://www.lrb.co.uk/podcasts-and-videos/podcasts/lrb-conversations/wash-your-hands-again?referrer=
Ted / O C Diver,
You are absolutely correct, my number don't reflect the unknown of the growth curve and the critical flattening required to maintain capacity of the system. At the same time, Italy, with ~12,500 confirmed infections with 16 million in the northern-most populated portion of the country, is already reeling in its ability to care for critical cases. That is .00078 % of 1/4 of the total Italian population.
Here is a good piece from today's WaPo that fully describes the deceptive nature of a pandemic, "When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn't."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...m=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_ideas
The WaPo article isn't helpful as Italy did have time to do the preperation to flatten the curve peak. And the Lily pond syndrome assumes a static profile. Which this clearly isn't. If you substantially reduce the interaction of the most vulnerable with the most likely infected / carriers, the numbers will be decidedly different.
One only has to look at China's history with the disease to see that there is some excessive fear mongering in the USA. After the disease started, you had a dramatic spreading effect with people traveling for the Chinese New Year. To fit the WaPo article template death totals should be in the hundreds of thousands to millions. Why hasn't it happened?
Ted
Ted,
Yes, you are correct that China's growth curve has flattened, as has Signapore's and South Korea. That is due to the severe measures employed to curb mobility and meetings/social distancing. The WaPo article doesn't deny engaging measures, nor does it advocate doing nothing; it simply illustrates the problem latent in pandemics, which is that what looks like nothing can explode virtually overnight into a runaway.
My comments began relative to remarks from 'Baker' at the opening of this chain that Covid 19 was nothing more than on scale with the flu. Such notions are dangerously wrong, albeit appealing in their off-handedness. As of this morning, Washington's 40 deaths out of 642 confirmed equates to >6%. Is that 'fear mongering"?
Experts have a pretty good idea of duration of time in ICU. And curves.Your numbers don't reflect the flattening of the curve and duration of time in an ICU. Don't know what the average duration of time in the ICU is, nor the time component in the top half of the curve, but it's nothing like 69,000 trying to occupy 4,500 spots.
Ted
Experts have a pretty good idea of duration of time in ICU. And curves.
As far as flattening the curve, we all play a part. And most of us continue to act in ways that are steepening the curve rather than flattening it.
“Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” Dr. Marty Makary, a medical professor at Johns Hopkins University told the outlet. “No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.”
https://mavenroundtable.io/theintel...s-have-the-coronavirus-eBud51i5u0-MiVjemVsktg
Ha! Yes. However the airline industry has consolidated so much over the past few years I guess it’s a little less of a bad bet. Think that’s why Buffett started buying again after he swore he would never buy another airline stock.
I think we're at the point where the thread title should be corrected.
Better to ask 'investing in Corona during the airline crisis'.
But can't bring myself to do that either!
Lots of good buying opportunities. With the roller coaster ride ups and downs, limit orders and market opening panic selloffs, you can get some amazing buys. If your investment strategy is buy at the bottom and hold long term, this opportunity is available only a few times in your life.
Ted
Are we at the bottom yet? It’s hard to see how another 6 to 8 weeks of a shut down economy would not have downward pressure on the markets. We have not even seen any financial institutions fail yet due to business failures and uncollectable loans.